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Toronto's real estate market is tanking and experts are pretty worried – blogTO

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Sales for new homes in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) plummeted in August, and the steep drop-off in demand is a worrying sign of things to come as the effects of economic uncertainty on the housing market become clearer.

The GTA new home market slid in both the number of sales and inventory levels in August, falling well below ten-year averages, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) announced on Thursday.

Only 533 new condominium apartments were sold region-wide in August, the number representing an 83 per cent dip below the sales figure for August 2021, and falling 61 per cent below the ten-year average.

Even fewer new single-family homes (including detached, linked, and semi-detached houses and townhouses) were purchased during the month, with just 89 homes marking a staggering 86 per cent year-over-year decline, sitting 87 per cent below the ten-year average.

“New home sales for August slowed in both the condominium apartment and single-family sectors as buyers and builders are in a wait-and-see mode amid the swirling economic uncertainty,” said Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group.

The decline in transactions was accompanied by a drop in available inventory, with 10,412 units on the market in August. Inventory is mainly accounted for in condominium units, with 8,787, compared to 1,625 single-family lots.

BILD warns that this only represents 3.5 months and 2.7 months of respective inventory, compared with the 9-12 months of inventory expected of a balanced housing market.

The only numbers that actually increased in August were prices.

Benchmark prices for new condominium apartments surged 11.2 per cent year-over-year in August to $1,189,682, while single-family home benchmark prices grew by 22.3 per cent in the same period to $1,861,587.

“New home buyers and builders have taken a step back in the face of rising interest rates and inflation,” said Dave Wilkes, BILD President & CEO. “A useful parallel is the year 2017, when the introduction of the mortgage stress test resulted in artificially elevated interest rates.”

Of course, there are many differences between 2022 and 2017. The market has had to endure lockdowns and a major economic downturn, an urban exodus due to the rise of remote work, and most recently, rampant inflation and further uncertainty.

That “soft landing” that experts have been talking about for roughly a decade seems to have turned from a likely outcome to a remote possibility, and the market’s future seems much more turbulent than it did in that “useful parallel” year of 2017.

Recent challenges have experts now throwing around words like “crisis” and “hard landing,” a situation current and prospective homebuyers will be keeping a close eye on.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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