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Surging momentum in U.S. dollar support gold bears and lower prices next week – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – The U.S. dollar’s unrelenting rally to 20-year highs is taking its toll on the gold market as prices prepare to end the week near their lowest point since April 2020.

The greenback’s extraordinary momentum and rising bond yields have shifted sentiment among Wall Street analysts to the bearish side. At the same time, retail investors are slightly more optimistic that prices can push higher next week, according to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey.

This week, a total of 19 market professionals took part in Kitco News’ Wall Street survey. Ten analysts, or 53%, said they were bearish on gold next week. At the same time, six analysts, or 32%, said they expect higher prices in the near term and three, or 16%, neutral on the precious metal.

On the retail side, 963 respondents took part in online polls. A total of469 voters, or 49%, called for gold to rise. Another 341, or 35%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 153 voters, or 16%, called for a sideways market.

Sentiment among retail investors has improved from the previous week as bearish sentiment has a slight advantage. December gold futures last traded at $1,655.70 an ounce, down nearly 1.7% from last week.

It has been a volatile week for the gold market as the precious metal managed to hold critical support levels even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and signaled that the Fed Funds rate could peak above 4.5% next year.

Many analysts said that gold has been able to withstand the U.S. central bank’s aggressive monetary policy stance as the threat of a recession continues to grow. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he didn’t know if the central bank’s action will push the U.S. economy into a recession, but he added that consumers should expect to see some pain as lower growth is needed to cool inflation.

Analysts said that the threat of a recession created some initial safe-haven demand for gold. However, that sentiment has been overwhelmed by volatility in global currency markets as the British pound saw the biggest price drop since 2016, when the nation voted to leave the European Union.

The selloff was triggered after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng revealed the government’s new budget with spending commitments ranging between £36 to £45 billion in the next four fiscal years. The massive spending initiative will be paid for with new debt.

“Today’s announcement shows that right now, the U.S. dollar is the only game in town and this will continue to make it difficult for the U.S. dollar,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.



It’s not just gold; analysts note the U.S. dollar’s dominance can be felt in the broad-based selloff throughout the commodity sector.

Although there is still some optimism in the marketplace as many see gold as oversold at current levels, many of the bulls see any rally as a short-term correction.

“We are bound to see a correction in bonds with 10-year yields up 33 bp in just one week while the dollar, sharply higher, is toying with the overbought territory,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Although Hansen is bullish on gold in the near term, he added, “There will be no prolonged recovery until we reach peak hawkishness, potentially still a few months away.”

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he sees a short-term bounce as bond yields consolidate. However, he added that he is watching to see if support at $1,650 can hold.

“A break of that can see $1600-$1620,” he said. “It may be too early to think a significant low in place in gold.”

Many analysts are bearish on gold as they expect the U.S. dollar can still move higher.

“Friday saw the greenback post its highest mark since May 2002 despite being sharply overbought from a technical point of view. If the dollar pulls back next week, gold could rally,” said Darin Newsome, president of Darin Newsom Analysis. “But until that happens, I’ll continue to follow Newton’s First Law of Motion applied to markets: A trending market will stay in that trend until acted upon by an outside force. And for now, the trend of the dollar is up and gold is down.”

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he is bearish on gold as the precious metal has seen some significant technical damage.

“As much as I think USD is getting overbought and due for a correction, gold not only broke down below $1,680, it also dropped under its 200-day moving average, and those are just too technically significant and bearish to ignore,” he said.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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