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BC Real Estate Association Predicts Mortgage Rate Increase In Q4 – Storeys

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The BC Real Estate Association, an association of over 24,000 commercial and residential realtors, is seeing a likely variable mortgage rate increase on the horizon.

“Canadian variable rates are expected to increase to 5.55% in the fourth quarter as the Bank of Canada continues its tightening cycle,” the BCREA said in their latest forecast.

Additionally, the BC Real Estate Association expects the variable mortgage rate to stay at 5.55% throughout 2023, until easing to 5.30% in Q4 2023.

“Volatility continued in the Canadian mortgage market over the third quarter,” the BCREA said. “Financial markets are currently digesting a complex economic environment as still high, though perhaps peaking, inflation collides with anxiety over a potential recession. That anxiety has expressed itself as volatility across Canadian bond markets with yields on Canadian government debt plunging before rapidly recovering in the second half of August.”

The BCREA also highlighted volatility in government bond yields. “Five-year bond yields briefly declined through July, only to once again recover their previous 2022 highs as still rising core inflation prompted a reversal in expectations for monetary policy.”

That, of course, came to fruition when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 75 basis points in early September and signaled that there may be more increases coming.

READ: “Bad Dream to a Nightmare”: Developers React to Rate Hikes With Gloomy Outlook

On the Bank of Canada, the BCREA points out that “the overnight rate is now above the Bank’s estimate of ‘neutral,’ or the level of its policy rate at which inflation should run at 2% and the economy is operating at full capacity.”

“How much further the Bank will go and how long rates will stay above neutral depends entirely on the trajectory of inflation going forward,” they said. “We expect the Bank will raise its policy rate at least one more time this year, ultimately settling between 3.5 and 3.75%.

That outlook is perhaps on the conservative side, as others, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, are predicting that the rate could be increased to 4.5%.

Regarding the Canadian economy at large, the “big question”, the BCREA says, is “whether the Bank of Canada can engineer a soft landing.” The BCREA believes it’s a possibility, but a possibility that will require some luck.

“There is a plausible path for interest rates that would bring inflation back to target while also paring back excess demand just enough without slowing the economy to the point of tipping into a recession,” they said. “That path would see the Bank’s policy rate plateau at 3.75% before coming down to 2.5% by 2025.”

The BCREA prefaces this by acknowledging that this scenario was something that occurred in their model simulations, which does not necessarily translate into the real world, pointing out that “over the past nearly 100 years, each time inflation has spiked it has taken a recession to bring it back down.”

That’s where we’d need that luck. As some like to say: sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Written By
Howard Chai

Howard is a Staff Writer at STOREYS. He is based in Vancouver, British Columbia, and has also written about media for One Zero and international politics for WhoWhatWhy. Before STOREYS, he was also the Deputy Editor of 604 Now.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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