Elisabeth Braw is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on defense against emerging national security challenges.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may well succeed in mobilizing the 300,000 reservists he says he needs for the war in Ukraine — but since his announcement, some 360,000 men have already traveled to Georgia and Kazakhstan to escape this fate, and countless others have made their way to other countries.
Simply put, the more the Kremlin mobilizes, the more men will try to leave the country, and that has massive implications for all manner of Russian workplaces, and consequently, the economy. With so many men gone, or about to pack their bags, sectors critical to the functioning of society — from factories to internet providers — are at risk of serious disruption. And Russia has no plan in place to deal with this.
Last month, many Russians had evidently already concluded that mobilization couldn’t be far off. We know this because in August, more than 260,000 Russians entered Georgia — up from 45,000 in August 2021. And in the six days after Putin’s mobilization announcement, nearly 100,000 Russians entered Kazakhstan, with the suddenly booked-up flights to countries like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates illustrating the exodus now taking place.
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The men now desperately leaving Russia are, of course, able-bodied and of working age — and their departure is an enormous loss to the armed forces.
But both the mobilization and the flight of so many men, at least as numerous as those being drafted, will create another problem — the absence of qualified workers in every sector. And the country has no set system for the continuity of its society during wartime.
By contrast, Russia’s neighbors Sweden and Finland have long maintained such detailed plans for how to keep society going in case of war, and it involves more than, say, engineers staffing nuclear power plants.
“In Finland, every company lists which employees are so vital that they can’t be released to the armed forces,” retired Lieutenant General Arto Räty, a former permanent secretary of Finland’s Ministry of Defence, told me. “And it’s not just energy and infrastructure but companies in all sectors. That means that we have a lot of people who have done military service who will never be called up. Having them performing their critical functions in civil society is even more important.”
Every Finnish industry sector also features a permanent chief of readiness, along with a committee in charge of crisis planning, while the country’s National Emergency Supply Agency is responsible for ensuring supplies for a wide range of crucial goods during crises.
During the Cold War, Sweden operated a similarly detailed plan — one that was later mostly scrapped but is now being invigorated — featuring so-called “war placement” for scores of workers who would, in case of war, remain in their civilian jobs or take on government tasks with similar functions. Many engineers had war placement, but so did many factory workers, teachers and journalists — and all of it was regularly tested in the country’s total defense exercises.
“Sweden is now in the process of rebuilding our Cold War total defense, and creating what one might call Total Defense 2.0, or societal defense,” retired General Sverker Göranson, a former chief of defense of Sweden, told me. “The point is that all-encompassing defense must encompass the whole of society, including people performing different functions in war placement roles.”
Russians on the road after crossing the Verkhni Lars customs checkpoint between Georgia and Russia on September 28, 2022 | Daro Sulakauri/Getty Images
Had Sweden or Finland been invaded during the Cold War, a core of factory workers would have kept up civilian and military production. A core of journalists would have continued informing the public. A core of doctors, nurses, teachers, supermarket workers, train engineers and lorry drivers would have made sure the population was fed and able to access necessities.
Given that today many crucial services are provided by private companies, making such plans for their continued functioning during crises has become even more important and complex.
As demonstrated by the haphazard way in which men are currently being mobilized, however, it is clear that Russia has no such continuity-of-society plan. And no, there aren’t enough women who can quickly step in and take on the jobs of the men who have been mobilized and have fled the country.
“The mobilization is happening randomly, and because of that, it will hit the economy,” Räty said. “Maybe not on the first day, but the economy can’t just keep going without these men and the men who’ve fled.”
If more men are indeed mobilized, critical services and the rest of the economy will, of course, struggle more. “We’re already seeing a huge brain drain,” Kari Liuhto, a professor of economics who specializes in the Russian economy at the University of Turku, says. “The best people are leaving Russia. Already this spring, tens of thousands of tech experts left the country. And the government doesn’t have a plan for how to replace these people.”
Then again, Liuhto noted, it would also have been difficult for the Kremlin to create and exercise a continuity-of-society plan “because then it would have been clear to Russians that there might be a long war afoot.”
Imagine being a Russian factory owner today who can’t produce your goods — for which you now have an excellent market, as so many Western companies have left Russia or stopped exporting to it — because of a lack manpower. Imagine being an IT firm losing engineers, with no new ones in sight. Or a food distribution firm losing lorry drivers. Imagine being a Russian citizen unable to get the goods or services you need. Doubtless, you’ll curse your country’s absence of a continuity-of-society plan.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
