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Immigration could be source of conflict between Ottawa and Quebec’s re-elected CAQ

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QUEBEC — Control over immigration and Quebec’s religious symbols ban could be sources of conflict between Ottawa and the province as Premier François Legault begins his second mandate.

Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec was re-elected Monday with a resounding majority, elected or leading in 89 of the province’s 125 ridings as of 11:30 p.m.

Martin Papillon, a political science professor at the Université de Montréal, said the balance of power between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Legault may have shifted in the Quebec premier’s favour.

A stronger mandate could embolden Legault, Papillon said in a recent interview. He said Trudeau will need to be careful in his handling of Quebec — and of the premier who has claimed to represent all Quebecers to Ottawa — with polls showing rising support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives

Tension with the federal government “doesn’t serve the interests of the federal government, but it certainly serves the interests of Legault’s Quebec government,” Papillon said. “It strengthens his position a bit and the vision he wants to put forward, his autonomist, nationalist vision, that doesn’t want to reopen the Constitution question.”

On the campaign trail, Legault spoke frequently about immigration, often claiming that too many immigrants would put the survival of the French language in the province at risk. He has said he wants Ottawa to give Quebec — which already chooses its own economic immigrants — control over family reunification and temporary foreign workers.

“I think this is going to be a major sticking point with the federal government in the coming months,” Papillon said.

Legault said in May that a stronger mandate would help him obtain additional powers over immigration, but André Lecours, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s school of political studies, said he thinks it’s unlikely that the federal government would bend to Quebec’s demands.

At its core, Lecours said, the conflict between the Legault and Trudeau governments over immigration stems from different ideas about diversity. While the federal government promotes multiculturalism, Legault has advocated integration centred on the French language and shared values, including secularism.

“It’s really this different vision about identity and diversity that causes the clash with the federal government,” he said.

Those differing ideas could also lead to conflict over Quebec’s Bill 21, which prohibits public sector workers in positions of authority, including teachers, police officers and judges, from wearing religious symbols on the job.

In May, federal Justice Minister David Lametti said that if a court challenge of the law reaches the Supreme Court, the federal government would get involved.

Legault’s government invoked the notwithstanding clause to shield the law from court challenges, arguing use of the constitutional provision was justified because a majority of Quebecers support the legislation. The premier has condemned the criticism of the law from English Canada.

Papillon said that any federal involvement before the courts would play in Legault’s favour, because he has emphasized the division between English-speaking Canada and Quebec on the issue.

One of the big questions of Legault’s new mandate will be what happens if the federal Liberals change leaders or if the Conservatives take power in the next federal election. Ideologically and in terms of political style, Legault is closer to the federal Conservatives than any other party.

And while Papillon said he hesitates to compare Legault and Poilievre, because they are “two different political animals,” he adds that like Poilievre, Legault has shown during the campaign that he is not afraid to stir controversy. At one point, he apologized after drawing a link between immigration and violence and extremism.

But for one of Legault’s former colleagues, his controversial comments, and the apologies that sometimes follow, are familiar.

Louise Harel said the Legault she sees in the premier’s office is the same man she knew when they were both PQ cabinet ministers in the 1990s and early 2000s. His habit of speaking impulsively often forces him to backpedal, she said in a recent interview, but that plays well with many Quebecers, who see themselves as underdogs.

Harel said Legault has always seen time spent debating in the legislature as something of a waste and has adopted a top-down style of government, with power centralized in his office and those of a few key ministers.

“It’s really like a private business, so he’s the CEO and there’s an executive committee, like in very large companies,” she said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2022.

 

Jacob Serebrin, The Canadian Press

Politics

Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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