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Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Presenting 2020 Market Outlook and January Market Statistics

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TORONTO, Feb. 18, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) is presenting the York Region version of its fifth annual Market Year in Review and Outlook Report at an Economic Summit at the Cardinal Golf Club this morning. The research and report findings will be presented at a morning event consisting of multiple presentations on the housing market, related transportation infrastructure and the underlying economic drivers in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The media are encouraged to attend (see event details below). TRREB MLS® System statistics for January 2020 are also provided below.

This year’s Market Year in Review and Outlook Report follows the increased demand for ownership and rental housing, and the persistent constrained supply of listings, especially where ownership housing is concerned. TRREB’s baseline forecast is calling for strong growth in home sales and selling prices, while the supply of listings is expected to be flat-to-down.

“Robust regional economic conditions, strong population growth and low borrowing costs will support increased home sales in 2020. Market conditions will become tighter, as transactions will continue to outpace the growth in available listings. The resulting increase in competition between buyers will likely result in an acceleration in price growth across all major market segments,” said TRREB President Michael Collins.

“The fact that tens of thousands of new households form each year in the GTA is testament to our region’s competitiveness on the global stage. We attract some of the best talent available into and across a diversity of economic sectors. However, in order to remain competitive, policy makers need to continue their focus on the constrained GTA housing supply and to ensure we have an integrated and efficient transit and transportation network that will effectively allow the movement of people and goods. Research in this year’s Market Year in Review and Outlook Report addresses these important topics,” said John DiMichele, TRREB CEO.

2020 GTA Outlook and York Region Summary

The following points summarize market conditions in the GTA and York Region, including TRREB’s overall outlook for 2020, with results from the Ipsos Home Owners and Home Buyers surveys:

Strong underlying demand drivers should see home sales crest the 90,000 mark in 2020, with a point forecast of 97,000 for the TRREB market area as a whole – up by almost 10.5 per cent compared to 87,825 sales reported in 2019. TREB does not produce a specific sales forecast for York region, but York Region sales have accounted for approximately 18 per cent of total sales within TREB’s market area over the past decade.

More than half of intending home buyers claimed to have been affected by the OSFI mortgage stress test. In order to adjust to the more stringent qualification standards, intending buyers followed a number of different paths. The most common responses involved changing home price, type or location. Some intending buyers also looked to alternate lenders, such as credit unions or the secondary lending market. However, it is important to note that Ipsos results also suggest that fewer intending home buyers seem to have been impacted by the OSFI mortgage stress test in York Region compared to the GTA as a whole.

The most popular home type for intending buyers was the detached house. However, the share of intending buyers GTA-wide who sought a detached house has declined markedly since the first survey in 2015 – from 54 per cent in the fall of 2015 to 42 per cent in the fall of 2019. In York Region, however, the share of intending buyers focused on a detached home was slightly higher, at 45 per cent.

Unless we see a significant increase in supply, it is highly likely that new listings will not keep up with sales growth in 2020. The end result will be an acceleration in price growth over the next year, as an increasing number of home buyers compete for a pool of listings that could be the same size or smaller than in 2019.

The point forecast for the overall average selling price across the TRREB market area in 2020 is $900,000, close to a 10 per cent increase compared to the average of $819,319 reported for 2019. This forecast rate of growth presupposes that price growth will continue to be driven by the less expensive mid-density low-rise home types and condominium apartments. If the pace of detached home price growth starts to catch up to that of other major home types, the average selling price for all home types combined could push well past the $900,000 mark over the next year. Average price growth in York Region is generally expected to follow the GTA trend in 2020.

“After more than three years of slower market activity brought on largely by changes in housing-related policies at the provincial and federal levels, home sales will move closer to demographic potential in 2020. The key issue, however, will be the persistent shortage of listings. Without relief on the housing supply front, the pace of price growth will continue to ramp up. Policy makers need to understand that demand side initiatives on their own will only have a temporary impact on the market,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst and Director of Service Channels.

“During the recent federal election campaign, Ipsos identified affordability issues as being top of mind for Canadians, and central to those concerns are housing costs in Canada and the GTA in particular. In the coming year, governments will no doubt be focused on how their policies are impacting the delicate balance between housing supply and demand, and how they can best provide relief to Canadians’ pocketbooks in the area of housing costs,” said Sean Simpson, Vice President at Ipsos.

New Research on Housing Supply, Regional Transportation and the Regional Economy

This year’s report is all about planning for growth in the Greater Toronto Area and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe. The subtitle for this year’s report is “The Time is Now” and the contents within the report puts the focus on planning for growth in the GTHA. In addition to sharing the latest data on the Greater Toronto Area ownership housing market, rental market and commercial real estate data, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board has worked with several partners to bring top-quality and evidence-based research. Our partners this year include Altus Group, Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis, the Pembina Institute and Ryerson University.

“Toronto’s booming economy has brought with it housing affordability challenges that will continue throughout the next decade. Both the provincial and municipal governments must support a massive increase in the supply of all types of housing and tenures as priority number one and quickly transform the land use planning system to make this happen,” said Frank Clayton, Senior Research Fellow, Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research & Land Development.

“To accommodate the 480,000 new daily commuters that are expected to join the system between now and 2041, transportation infrastructure capacity will have to increase significantly, and especially for public transit. To get there without making congestion worse, it’s going to be very important to evaluate each new investment in transportation infrastructure on the basis of its productivity to make sure pressure is relieved in the right places,” said Paul Smetanin, President and CEO, Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis.

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis research in TRREB’s Market Year in Review and Outlook Report looks at growth patterns and presents a comprehensive review of current transportation challenges across the GTHA, as well as suggested solutions for future transportation opportunities.

“Building transit-friendly communities helps individuals and families save on their housing and transportation costs, improves transit use, manages traffic congestion, and in doing so, reduces pollution. In the GTHA, there’s an exciting opportunity to greatly improve access to bus transit that is already widely relied on. To seize these opportunities, communities should prioritize gently increasing housing supply and choice around the GTHA’s bus network,” said Carolyn Kim, Ontario Regional Director, Pembina Institute.

The Pembina Institute presents research on transit-supportive development and the interplay of housing diversity and ideas on increasing housing supply.

TRREB’s Market Year-in-Review and Outlook Report can be downloaded from TRREB.ca.

Outlook Summary Table
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(F)
TREB MLS® System Sales 113,041 92,342 78,020 87,825 97,000
TREB MLS® System Average Price $729,824 $822,510 $787,842 $819,319 $900,000

Media Inquiries:
Mary Gallagher, Senior Manager, Public Affairs
maryg@trebnet.com 416-443-8158

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board with more than 56,000 residential and commercial professionals connecting people, property and communities.

www.trreb.ca/

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Unlock Reliable U.S. Real Estate Opportunities with Oak Street Partners

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OAK STREET PARTNERS UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES  FOR CANADIAN INVESTORS IN THE U.S. RENTAL HOUSING MARKET

Oak Street Partners is leading the way in cash-flow-focused U.S. affordable housing investments

TORONTO, ON | NOVEMBER 18, 2024 – With the Canadian real estate market facing challenges and declining opportunities for investors, Oak Street Partners, a Toronto-based private real estate investment firm, is offering a new avenue for Canadian investors to diversify into the U.S. rental housing market. Oak Street Partners enables investors to passively invest in U.S. affordable housing, providing them with stable, cash-flow-focused returns while helping meet the growing demand for quality, affordable housing in the United States.

“Market conditions in Canada have made it more difficult for investors to find reliable, income-generating opportunities,” says Parker Christie, Founder & CEO of Oak Street Partners. “By turning to the U.S. affordable housing market, we’ve been able to create consistent, cash-flowing investments that benefit both our investors and local communities.”

Building on this approach, Oak Street Partners facilitates investment by strategically acquiring and managing properties in the U.S., particularly in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Investors provide capital, while Oak Street handles all aspects of property ownership and management. Similar to a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but privately structured, Oak Street ensures investors receive stable, cash-flow-driven returns without the need for direct involvement.
A key part of Oak Street’s approach is leveraging the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program, America’s largest federal rental subsidy program that pays private landlords rent on behalf of low-income tenants. This guarantees a reliable, high cash flow income stream, even when real estate markets are challenged with high interest rate environments. By leveraging this program, Oak Street is not only able to provide consistent returns to its investors, but it also enhances lower-income communities, creating sustainable, quality homes for residents.

“It’s a win-win situation,” explains Trumbull Fisher, Director of Oak Street Partners. “Tenants are able to secure and enjoy quality, affordable housing, while investors benefit from reliable, government-backed rental payments that ensure steady cash flow.”

By investing in these properties, Oak Street is able to support the demand for affordable housing, while also contributing to the broader social good by addressing housing shortages and improving community infrastructure. This dual focus on financial return and social impact is what makes Oak Street’s approach stand out in today’s real estate investment landscape.

In its first year of operation, Oak Street has acquired over 100 units in Ohio. With $10 million in assets under management, the company has been able to offer its investors a 10 per cent cash dividend, which was distributed nine months into its operation. This is a rare milestone for companies in their first year, as many real estate investment firms operate at a loss in their early stages.

“As we look to the future, our goal is to expand Oak Street’s portfolio in high-demand areas across the Midwest and Southeast,” adds Christie. “Our focus will remain on sourcing properties that deliver strong, stable returns while positively impacting local communities.”

For more information on Oak Street Partners visit oakstreetgp.com/.

ABOUT OAK STREET PARTNERS

Oak Street Partners is a real estate investment firm focused on creating diversified and stable opportunities for investors in the U.S. rental housing market. We offer a unique pathway for investors to build and expand their portfolios by investing in affordable housing opportunities, improving the quality of life for tenants while delivering consistent returns for investors.

Website: https://oakstreetgp.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/oak-street-partners-gp

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oakstreetgp/

Email: info@oakstreetgp.com  n

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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