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Canadian Real Estate Enters A National Seller's Market, As Sales Jump – Better Dwelling

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Canadian real estate buyers are facing less inventory, and more competition. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) increased in most markets this past January. The rising ratio, used to help understand demand, reached a “seller’s market” last month. Not just in one place either – the whole country is now a seller’s market.

Sales To New Listings Ratio (SNLR)

The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) is one way to gauge relative demand of inventory. Analysts use it to help determine how fast new listings are coming in to replace sold inventory. The lower the ratio, the more inventory will build. The higher the ratio, the tighter inventory is. When people talk about supply and demand, this is one of the core metrics used to understand it.

The SNLR is a straightforward read. When the SNLR rises above 60%, the market is a seller’s market – and prices should rise. When the ratio falls below 40%, the market is a buyer’s market – and prices should fall. Between 40% and 60% the market is considered balanced, and priced right for demand. Generally the ratio needs to stay in the range to see it respond in the expected manner. There’s also a few caveats, such as priced right for the market now, doesn’t mean it’ll be priced right later.

Canada Enters A National Seller’s Market

Canada entered a national seller’s market last month, after a big spike in sales. The SNLR for Canada’s urban aggregate reached 60.5% in January, up 6% from a year before. Montreal had the highest SNLR of any city at 79.8%, up 9.6% from last year. Halifax followed with an SNLR of 79%, up 14% from a year before. Ottawa came in third with an SNLR of 78.6%, up 8.4% from a year before. The national number is the highest for January in at least 3 years. The top 3 cities have also seen at least 3 consecutive increases for the month.

Sales To New Listings Ratio

The sales to new listings ratio in selected Canadian residential real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The lowest ratios of any urban market were all located in the Prairies. Saskatoon has the lowest urban SNLR at 42.8% in January, up 2.7% from a year before. Regina follows with an SNLR of 47.7%, up 4.7% from last year. Edmonton comes in third with an SNLR of 48.7%, up 4.7% from last year. Despite having the lowest ratios, all three markets are “balanced” by this indicator. These markets also saw improvements from a year before.

Eastern Canada Is Seeing The Fastest Rise In SNLR

Eastern Canada is seeing the fastest rise in SNLR, and it’s really fast. Halifax made the biggest jump with the SNLR reaching 79% in January, up 14% from a year before. Montreal was in second with an SNLR of 79.8%, up 9.6% from a year before. Toronto came in third with an SNLR of 58.8%, up 9% from last year. All three markets are firmly above their 2018 number as well.

Sales To New Listings Ratio Change

The percent change in sales to new listings ratio selected Canadian residential real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The only declines for SNLR were located in Southern Ontario. The Windsor-Essex region reported an SNLR of 69.8% in January, down 5.4% from a year before. London’s SNLR fell to 72.8%, down 1.9% from last year. The drops still weren’t enough to bring the markets out of seller’s territory.

Canadian real estate sales are growing faster than new inventory in all but two markets. The sudden surge in sales over the past few months, likely has to do with delayed B-20 demand. The surge in demand is removing a lot of pressure on prices to fall, which compounds inventory issues. Ironically, fewer people want to sell during a seller’s market.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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