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Gold's 7 months of losses put it on path to longest losing streak in 5 decades – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) Gold price is feeling the pain of seven months of consecutive losses — the longest string of declines in more than five decades. And this at a time when the Federal Reserve is about to announce its fourth consecutive 75-basis-point hike.

Spot gold is looking to wrap up October down 1.4% on the month, its seventh monthly decline in a row — something not seen since 1968. Year-to-date, gold is down around 10%. Since the end of March, gold has dropped more than 15%.

After peaking above $2,000 an ounce in March following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, gold has struggled to maintain any new gains. It has primarily traded in a downtrend, with a strong U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields weighing on the precious metal.

While many continue to debate a Fed pivot or at least a possibility of a slowdown in the next few months, the U.S. central bank is still on track for another oversized rate hike this Wednesday.

The latest note from Goldman Sachs sees the Fed raising interest rates to 5%, which is higher than the bank’s previous estimate. At the last meeting, the Fed’s forecasts showed rates climbing 4.4% this year and 4.6% next year.

After this week’s meeting, the Fed would have raised rates by 375 basis points this year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%.

Goldman estimates rate increases of 75 bps this week, 50 bps in December, and 25 bps in February and March. It also added that “uncomfortably high” inflation, the need for slower economic growth, and worries of premature easing are the main reasons the Fed could keep tightening policy beyond February.

In the meantime, as the Fed continues to slow down the economy, the risk of a recession is rising. Recession in the U.S. and Europe is very likely, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said last week.

“We will likely have a recession in the U.S. [and] going to have, I think, most likely a recession in Europe,” Solomon said during a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. “There is no question that economic conditions, in my opinion, are going to tighten meaningfully from here.”

With the Fed’s announcement in just under 48 hours, the main question is whether the central bank will be slowing down after the November meeting. A shift to a slower rate hike pace would be positive for gold, which is why some analysts are getting more bullish on the precious metal.

“The Fed is going to back away from raising so aggressively. There could be talk of a step down at the next meeting,” RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis told Kitco News. “Gold hasn’t faired too well priced in dollars. If we see the dollar come off, gold can do very well.”

Since the Fed has been very swift with its rate hikes, it could be ready to “let the pieces fall and see where they land,” Pavilonis added.

However, many analysts remain cautious, noting that markets overestimate a Fed pivot. “[The] press conference will be closely watched, but we expect Chair Powell to maintain the hawkish tone that has been consistently held since Jackson Hole in late August. We do not think he will give the markets what they are looking for, which is some hint of a pivot. After the decision, Fed officials will go forth to spread the message,” said BBH Global Currency Strategy head Win Thin.

The bar for a Fed pivot is quite high, added ING’s global head of markets Chris Turner. “We feel it is too early to call time on the dollar’s rally. After all, the market, in effect, already prices the pivot (pricing a 75bp hike this week and a 50bp hike in December) and we suspect the chances of another 75bp hike in December are under-priced.”

This year, persistently high inflation mixed in with continued dollar strength led to strong gold ETF outflows. This was somewhat balanced out by robust demand in the physical market, according to Suki Cooper, executive director of precious metals research at Standard Chartered.

For the rest of the year, Cooper said she is looking for continued gold-backed ETF outflows for the rest of the year, which would weigh on prices. Next year, Standard Chartered is looking for a small net inflow. “Turning point comes when the Fed pivots. The dollar strength is likely to persist in the next few months,” she said during a webinar last week.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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