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Why mortgage stress test changes should not be made in political backrooms

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The main job of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is to keep banks out of trouble, and the mortgage stress test ensured none of them were adding riskier creditors to their massive home-loan portfolios. But at the end of January, out of nowhere, the federal banking regulator appeared to go wobbly on the test.

Why? Rita Trichur, one of the better chroniclers of Bay Street, offered a plausible answer. “If you’re wondering why OSFI is suddenly considering fiddling with the stress test as froth builds in the Vancouver and Toronto housing markets, household debt remains high and consumer insolvencies are rising, look no further than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his waning political fortunes,” she said in the Globe and Mail on Feb. 13.

You can decide for yourself whether the current group loosened housing regulations for the right reasons, or whether there were more nefarious forces at work

The previous prime minister, Stephen Harper, balked at making it harder to qualify for mortgages, which is one of the reasons household debt is now such a serious problem. Trudeau, via Finance Minister Bill Morneau, introduced the stress test. The real-estate lobby howled, but Morneau held firm and the policy worked: credit growth slowed to a sustainable pace.

Nevertheless, the housing industry, aided by the narrative that life in big cities had become unaffordable, kept up the pressure. The Conservatives promised to adjust the stress test during last fall’s election campaign. The Liberals waited until after they were reduced to a minority government. Morneau’s marching orders from Trudeau included a direction to “review and consider recommendations from financial agencies related to making the borrower stress test more dynamic.”

The re-appointed finance minister got the hint. On Feb. 18, Morneau stepped in front a podium on his way into the House of Commons for Question Period and announced he had made a tweak. “We’ve taken a look at how Canadians can continue to be protected in their investments, in their homes, but at the same time make sure the stress tests are more dynamic to market conditions,” he said at an impromptu press conference that lasted about five minutes.

Starting in April, if you want an insured mortgage, you will have to show you could handle payments at a rate that is two-percentage-points higher than a five-year rate based on recent mortgage insurance applications. OSFI, which sets the rules for uninsured home loans, indicated it would follow the government’s lead. The new calculation will allow riskier borrowers to qualify for bigger loans, and, on the margin, puts upward pressure on prices.

Mortgage Professionals Canada acknowledged the news by tweeting that Morneau and OSFI had “finally” listened. The Canadian Real Estate Association also expressed contentment, saying in a statement that it had been advocating for “changes to the stress test on behalf of potential homeowners who have been sidelined, borrowers who have moved away from the regulated market to the less-regulated options, and real estate markets across the country in need of relief.”

Frankly, there aren’t many markets “in need of relief,” and those that do — Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador — have bigger problems than the stress test. According to CREA’s own assessment, sales of existing homes in January amounted to one of the “stronger readings of the last few years,” and transactions passed year-earlier levels in about two-thirds of all markets, including “most” of the biggest ones.

Kyle Dahms and Matthieu Arseneau, economists at National Bank, estimate that the current stress test, which is based on the posted five-year conventional mortgages posted by the six biggest lenders, constricts an insured homebuyer’s purchasing power by about 22 per cent. The new rules will allow borrowers to increase the size of their loans by about four per cent, based on the latest data, adding “further fuel to a vigorous housing market which is already supported by the recent decline in mortgage rates and a vibrant labour market,” Dahms and Arseneausaid in a research note.

Morneau and OSFI are planning “pro-cyclical” policy, when “counter-cyclical” measures are still needed to offset the stimulative effect of unusually low interest rates. Financial regulation has been elevated in importance since the financial crisis, but officials appear to see it as flexible, unlike managing inflation, which is often described as sacrosanct. “Anyone who has been doing financial regulation long enough knows that as you see these things in play, you realize there are tweaks that could be made,” Carolyn Wilkins, the Bank of Canada’s senior deputy governor, said at a press conference on Jan. 22, when the changes still were under discussion.

The technocratic justification for adjusting the stress test is that it was proving to be somewhat harsher in practice than intended, so an update was in order. A proper financial regulator, responsible to Parliament or that operated at arm’s length from cabinet, might see things differently. Surely it would have preferred to hold the line, judging that the threat of big-city markets such as Toronto and Montreal overheating outweighed whatever minor pain homebuyers and the real-estate industry were feeling.

We can’t know because no such regulator exists in Canada. Those decisions are made deep inside the Finance Department, far from public view. Marie-France Faucher, a spokesperson at the department, said Morneau received advice from the Senior Advisory Committee, a secretive group of senior technocrats that is chaired by the deputy minister of finance and includes representatives from the Bank of Canada, OSFI, Canada Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. was also consulted, she said.

“Strong collegial culture and inter-agency cooperation” is one reason, the International Monetary Fund observed last month, that Canada’s approach to financial oversight “appears to be adequately effective.”

Still, the fund said “first-best” would be to have a single body keeping watch over the financial system, and “second-best” would be elevating the Bank of Canada’s rank within the hierarchy. The reason is transparency and accountability. The fix could be as simple as pulling the Senior Advisory Committee out of the backrooms and replacing the current chair with someone from the central bank.

Until something like that happens, the rules the federal government implements to protect against financial crises will be as credible as the men and women in power at any given moment. You can decide for yourself whether the current group loosened housing regulations for the right reasons, or whether there were more nefarious forces at work.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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