Vincent Rigby saw a lot over his 30-year career in public service, much of it working with some of the most sensitive and secret intelligence issues in Canada.
But for all that experience, the former national security adviser to the prime minister found himself in a state of disbelief in August when he saw the FBI search the home of former U.S. president Donald Trump and leave with boxes of highly sensitive, classified information.
“I was absolutely stunned that based on the media reports that I saw, he had in his possession what are reputed to be very, very sensitive documents and it’s just something that is unheard of,” Rigby said in an interview with The Fifth Estate.
“Just disbelief that somebody could take those out of the White House, stick them, I presume, on a plane or in a truck, drive them down to Florida and then put them … effectively in a basement, it’s just disbelief,” said Rigby, now a visiting professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University in Montreal.
The material has set off a damage assessment by the U.S. intelligence community as it tries to understand what classified information was contained in the documents the former president had in his possession.
But the concern extends beyond just U.S. intelligence. The United States is a member of the Five Eyes, an intelligence-sharing organization that also includes Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.
Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, says that because Canada shares so much intelligence with the United States, Canadian agencies should be concerned about the material recovered from the Florida home of former U.S. president Donald Trump. (Steven D’Souza/CBC)
Rigby said any potential security breach for one member has a ripple effect within the entire group and would also reverberate through the halls of the dozen or so agencies that share and collect intelligence in Canada, including the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS), and the Communications Security Establishment (CSE).
“In a worst-case scenario, there’s Canadian intelligence, that’s a direct implication,” said Rigby who played a critical role in Canada’s intelligence community as the national security and intelligence adviser to the prime minister from January 2020 until his retirement in September 2021.
Unprecedented search
On Aug. 8, the FBI took the unprecedented step of searching the home of a former U.S. president. With heavily armed Secret Service agents standing guard outside, teams of FBI agents searched Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property.
During the August search, the FBI combed through the posh club, which doubles as Trump’s primary residence, recovering 100 documents with classification markings, including 18 marked top secret, 54 marked secret and 31 marked confidential. The documents were found in Trump’s bedroom, an office and a first-floor storage room, according to court filings.
According to an inventory filed as part of a legal battle over the documents recovered, the material found includes some of the highest classification levels of U.S. intelligence, including material that’s highly compartmentalized and only available to a select few.
The FBI says it took about 11,000 documents, including roughly 100 with classification markings found in a storage room and an office, while serving a court-authorized search warrant at the home on Aug. 8. (Getty Images)
The search was part of an investigation by the FBI and the U.S. Justice Department into the storing and mishandling of national defence information and possible obstruction of justice.
The probe was sparked by an almost year-long effort by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) to recover presidential records removed by Trump after he left the White House in January 2021.
In January 2022, Trump’s lawyers returned 15 boxes of records. In those boxes, archivists found more than 100 documents with classification markings, comprising more than 700 pages, according to a letter from NARA to Trump’s lawyers.
‘Inappropriate’ to comment, government says
It’s not clear if any intelligence directly related to Canada is among the documents. The Fifth Estate contacted CSIS, Global Affairs, Public Safety Canada and the minister responsible for public safety, Marco Mendicino, for comment.
Instead, The Fifth Estate was sent a response from the Privy Council Office, which reports directly to the Prime Minister’s Office.
“At this stage, it would be inappropriate for the Government of Canada to comment on an ongoing U.S. law-enforcement investigation,” the Privy Council Office said in the statement.
“Should the Government of Canada be made aware of any security breaches, appropriate protocols and procedures are in place to deal with them.”
An aerial view shows former U.S. president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home on on Aug. 15 in Palm Beach, Fla. (Marco Bello/Reuters)
But experts say that because Canada relies so heavily on the U.S. for intelligence, any impact on its ability to collect information would be felt north of the border.
“Knowing the prime minister, he may well have reached out and had some pointed questions, if not directly from him, from a staff in the Prime Minister’s Office: ‘Do we need to be concerned? Are there any issues here? What’s at stake?'” said Rigby, cautioning that he doesn’t know if the prime minister has been briefed.
As national security and intelligence adviser, he was also responsible for co-ordinating the security intelligence community within Canada and liaising with allies, especially the U.S.
Rigby said if he was still in Ottawa in his former job, he’d likely be putting a call into his counterpart, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, “to say: ‘OK, can you just give us a little bit of insight here as to what are these documents? And should we be concerned from a Canadian perspective?'”
Implications for Canada
The concern isn’t theoretical, in part because what is reportedly in at least some of the documents relates directly to a current national security issue in Canada.
The Washington Post reported that some of the material recovered “described highly sensitive intelligence work aimed at China.”
Chinese interference in Canadian elections and other national security concerns have been top of mind in Ottawa recently. At a meeting of the procedure and house affairs committee earlier this month, Michelle Tessier, deputy director of operations for CSIS, told members of Parliament about their concern about the Chinese Communist Party.
“They are an actor in foreign interference,” Tessier told the committee on Nov. 1, “and we have said that publicly and I can state again that we are concerned about the activities regarding threats against the security of Canada, including foreign interference by the Chinese Communist Party.”
A seven-page inventory filed by the FBI in U.S. federal court in Florida lists the contents of the boxes recovered during the search of Mar-a-Lago in August. (U.S. Department of Justice)
Rigby said the activities China could be involved in range from foreign interference and espionage to disinformation, misinformation, cyberattacks and more.
He said China is also very aggressive in its intelligence collection so it would likely target information in Trump’s possession to help it understand what the U.S. knows about its operations.
“If this intelligence is not stored properly if it’s sitting in a basement room somewhere without being properly locked up, it can potentially be grabbed by foreign intelligence agencies. And it can put not just the U.S. at heightened risk, but the Five Eyes, our allies and Canada included.”
Artur Wilczynski, a former associate deputy chief of signals intelligence at the Communications Security Establishment, says information shared among the Five Eyes, like intelligence on China, is essential for Canadian security interests. Losing access to that would have an effect on the ability to manage risk, he said.
“If some of that information that’s essential to make decisions is no longer available because sources are compromised, then you do not have all the information that you should have in order to make an informed decision,” Wilczynski told The Fifth Estate.
Artur Wilczynski, a former associate deputy chief of signals intelligence at the Communications Security Establishment, says information shared among the Five Eyes, like intelligence on China, is essential for Canadian security interests. (Steven D’Souza/CBC)
A major reason so many in the intelligence community worry that information could be compromised is that it was stored at Trump’s home in Florida, the private club known as Mar-a-Lago.
The FBI expressed concern that the facility lacked a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility, also known as an SCIF, a specially designed area to store and view top secret information.
Mar-a-Lago is well-known among intelligence experts for substandard security, which has seen a host of dubious characters gain access over the years, including a woman posing as a wealthy heiress (who had among other documents, a forged Canadian passport) and a Chinese national who was found to have numerous electronic surveillance and computer hacking devices.
How to steal top secret information
A former CIA case officer tells The Fifth Estate how he would go about infiltrating former U.S. president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club to try to gain access to top secret information stored there.
That easy accessibility makes it a prime target for foreign intelligence agencies to try to gain access to the former president and any material he may have in his possession, says Peter Strzok, a former FBI deputy director for counterintelligence.
“I find it hard to believe that certainly when you think about China, when you think about Russia, that they would not have extended extraordinary efforts which continue to this day to get access to Trump,” Strzok told The Fifth Estate.
“Whether that is people close to him, whether that is his electronics, his email, his texts, whether that is the places that he frequents, that he lives, those efforts were significant in all likelihood, and continue to be significant.”
Easy accessibility of Mar-a-Lago makes it a prime target for foreign intelligence agencies to try to gain access to the former president and any material he may have in his possession, Peter Strzok, a former FBI deputy director for counterintelligence, told The Fifth Estate. (Harvey Cashore/CBC)
Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada and a vocal Trump critic, was shocked but not surprised when he heard about the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago.
“This is in a resort property in Florida … a place where people go to have weddings and parties, and we have the highest level of security documents sitting around, laying around the house. I mean, this is absolutely appalling.”
Exposing sources
A major concern would be the fallout for human sources — the spies themselves — if the top secret material found in Trump’s possession fell into the hands of adversaries, said Douglas London, a former case officer with the CIA.
London, who also worked in counterterrorism operations, said a damage assessment of the material Trump had would look at whether any sources or methods of collection had been affected.
He said the process can be exhaustive and operations could be stopped if agencies feel like the people risking their lives to gather information were at risk.
Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada and a vocal Trump critic, was shocked but not surprised when he heard about the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago. (Steven D’Souza/CBC)
“These are not necessarily mercenary folks, these are people who often refuse money or material compensation because they’re doing it for their children, their future. And those are the people that will pay the dearest consequences if they’re compromised,” London said.
Those consequences, he said, are severe.
“You’re talking about police, state surveillance, states like Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and even some countries that we deal with as partners across the world who are led by autocrats who are rather brutal and tend not just to kill the agent or the source, but to retaliate against their family and their networks and their friends.”
Rigby agrees the risks posed by the documents found at Mar-a-Lago could potentially have life-or-death consequences for those on the front lines of intelligence gathering.
“They could end up in prison for a long time, or in some cases, extreme cases, they are executed. It’s a very dangerous business, a very dangerous business.”
When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.
To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.
“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.
She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.
Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.
The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.
“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.
Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.
Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.
A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.
Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.
It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.
Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.
Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.
“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.
Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.
Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.
Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.
However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.
“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.
Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).
“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”
The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.
It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.
Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.
For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.
Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.
“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.
The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.
“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.
It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.
“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.
Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.
Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.
“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
Economists anticipate that Canada’s annual inflation rate in August fell to its lowest level since March 2021.
Ahead of Statistics Canada’s consumer price index set to be released on Tuesday, economists polled by Reuters are expecting the report to show prices rose 2.1 per cent from a year ago, down from a 2.5 per cent annual gain in July. The forecasters also anticipate inflation remained flat on a month-over-month basis.
“Unless there’s something lurking out there that we’re not aware of, it looks like we’re headed for a pretty favourable reading,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.
RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan said in a report last week that those expectations would put the headline inflation rate just a hair over the Bank of Canada’s two per cent inflation target.
“Most of that August slowing is expected from a pullback in gasoline prices, but the (Bank of Canada’s) preferred core CPI measures are also expected to trend lower, with the closely-watched three-month annualized growth rate easing from an average of 2.6 per cent in July,” the RBC economists said.
The continued progress on slowing inflation comes as the central bank has signalled a willingness to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant.
The Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point earlier this month — the third consecutive cut — to 4.25 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision was motivated by falling inflation, noting if the CPI moving forward “was significantly weaker than we expected … it could be appropriate to take a bigger step, something bigger than 25 basis points.”
On the other hand, Macklem said if inflation is stronger than expected, the bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.
Inflation has remained below three per cent since January and fears of price growth reaccelerating have diminished as the economy has weakened.
Porter said despite progress on the inflation rate, it’s still “not in a place where it’s a compelling argument that the bank has to go even faster.”
He forecasts the central bank will cut its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point at every meeting until July 2025, bringing it down to 2.5 per cent by that time. That prediction also comes after data released last week that showed Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August from 6.4 per cent in July.
However, Porter said it’s possible the bank could speed up its rate cutting cycle if inflation continues easing.
“If we’re going to be wrong, it’s that we’re going to get to 2.5 per cent even more quickly and possibly lower than that,” said Porter.
“There is a case to be made that if the economy were to weaken further, there’s little reason for the bank to keep rates in what they consider to be the neutral zone. They could go below that.”
Shelter costs have remained the main driver of inflation as Canadians face high rents and mortgage payments. Porter noted that when factoring out housing costs, inflation in both Canada and U.S. is hovering slightly above one per cent.
“So really, the only thing keeping Canadian inflation above two per cent is shelter and it does look like shelter costs are probably going to fade,” he said.
“It looks as if rents are starting to moderate. They’re not necessarily falling, but not rising as quickly. And of course with interest rates coming down, ultimately the big kahuna here, mortgage interest costs, will recede as well.”
With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday, Janzen and Fan said they expect the American central bank to announce its first rate cut in four years.
“Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed,” they wrote.
“We think governor (Jerome) Powell’s comments will likely stay on the cautious side — hinting at future rate cuts without committing to a pre-determined path to allow for more flexibility in future decisions.”
—With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
MONTREAL – Passengers with plans to fly on Canada’s largest airline can breathe a sigh of relief after Air Canada said Sunday it has reached a tentative agreement with the union representing more than 5,200 of its pilots.
The news of a preliminary deal with the Air Line Pilots Association came shortly after midnight on Sunday when the airline issued a press release just days ahead of a potential work stoppage for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge.
The tentative deal averts a strike or lockout that could have begun on Wednesday, with flight cancellations expected before then.
“The new agreement recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline,” the carrier said in the statement.
It said Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge will continue to operate as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.
It said the terms of the new deal will remain confidential pending a ratification vote by the membership, expected to be completed over the next month, and approval by Air Canada’s board of directors.
ALPA issued a statement after midnight Sunday, saying if ratified, the tentative agreement will generate an approximate additional $1.9 billion of value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the agreement.
First Officer Charlene Hudy, chair of the Air Canada ALPA MEC, says in a Sunday statement, “The consistent engagement and unified determination of our pilots have been the catalyst for achieving this contract.” She added that progress was made on several key issues including compensation, retirement, and work rules.
The airline said customers who changed flights originally scheduled from between Sunday and Sept. 23 under its labour disruption plan can change their booking back to their original flight in the same cabin at no cost, providing there is space available.
In the lead-up to Sunday’s deadline to issue notice of a stoppage, the two sides said they remained far apart on the issue of pay, which was central in the negotiations that had stretched for more than a year.
The pilots’ union argued Air Canada continues to post record profits while expecting pilots to accept below-market compensation. It had also said about a quarter of pilots report taking on second jobs, with about 80 per cent of those doing so out of necessity.
The airline had said it has offered salary increases of more than 30 per cent over four years, plus improvements to benefits, and said the union was being inflexible with “unreasonable wage demands.”
Air Canada and numerous business groups had called on the government to intervene in the matter, including the Canadian Federation of Independent Business and the Canadian and U.S. Chambers of Commerce.
“The Government of Canada must take swift action to avoid another labour disruption that negatively impacts cross-border travel and trade, a damaging outcome for both people and businesses,” said the chambers and the Business Council of Canada in a statement Friday.
The union had called for the opposite approach, with Association President Capt. Tim Perry issuing a Friday statement asking Ottawa to respect workers’ collective rights and refrain from getting involved in the bargaining process. He said the government intervention violates the constitutional rights and freedoms of Canadians.
For his part, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said it’s up to the two sides to hash out a deal.
Trudeau said Friday the government isn’t just going to step in and fix the issue, something it did promptly after both of Canada’s major railways saw lockouts in August and during a strike by WestJet mechanics on the Canada Day long weekend.
He said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.
Air Canada had already begun preparing for a possible shutdown, saying its cargo service had stopped accepting items such as perishables and indicating a wind-down plan for passenger flights would take effect if a notice of a strike or lockout was issued.
The tentative deal averts travel disruptions for the 670 daily flights on average operated by Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, and the travel of more than 110,000 passengers.
This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
