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Analysts cautious on big bank earnings amid recessionary headwinds

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CANADIAN BANK BUILDINGS ON BAY STREET.
CANADIAN BANK BUILDINGS ON BAY STREET.

Analysts are erring on the side of caution in their earnings forecasts for the Big Six banks, as recession risks loom and a combination of factors are working against the country’s major lenders.

At least two analysts have revised their earnings expectations for the fourth quarter, pointing to volatile markets, the need to set more money aside for bad loans and and increasing funding costs among other headwinds.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce analyst Paul Holden and his team slashed adjusted earnings estimates across the sector by about 1.5 per cent on average for the fourth quarter and by 1.6 per cent for full-year in 2023.

“The biggest drivers are lower capital markets revenue, less wealth management revenue and higher operating expenses,” Holden wrote in a Nov. 18 note, adding that the two dominant themes for the quarter would be net interest margin expansions and higher credit provisioning. “Overall, our adjusted (earnings per share) estimates imply earnings will be down two per cent (year-over-year) and (quarter-over-quarter) on average.”

Expanding net interest margins, or the spread a bank earns between interest income and interest expenses, has been a leading theme for the banks this year as the Bank of Canada engaged in an aggressive rate hiking cycle that brought the policy rate from near-zero to 3.75 per cent in October. The hikes created a trade-off in that while they dampened demand for loans, they also increased the amount of interest the banks can charge as they moved their prime rates up in tandem with each central bank hike.

CIBC analysts expect expanding net interest margins to remain as the banks’ primary drivers, benefitting Toronto-Dominion bank and the Royal Bank of Canada the most since they would have the best operating leverage.

Scott Chan, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, and his also revised adjusted earning estimates down three per cent, pointing to growing macroeconomic concerns for dragging on bank stocks this year.

“With macro concerns continued at the forefront (e.g. inflation, housing, geopolitical, recession fears), the Big Six banks have modestly underperformed the TSX Composite since (the third quarter 2022) reporting season and (year-to-date),” Chan wrote in an Nov. 21 note.

Most of Canada’s biggest banks have seen their stock performance lag this year with shares of RBC slipping just over one per cent since the beginning of the year, the Bank of Montreal’s stock falling nearly six per cent, TD down over eight per cent, CIBC off 13 per cent, and the Bank of Nova Scotia tumbling the most at 21 per cent. Shares of National Bank managed to eke out a slight gain.

National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine said recession risks were keeping Canada’s bank stocks “in check,” and that the share prices currently indicate a 55 per cent probability of a recession.

Despite the headwinds, Dechaine took a more optimistic tone in his preview note, pointing primarily to margin expansion as an upside as the banks had a seven-basis point boost in their margins in the last quarter. Dechaine was also less deterred by provisions for loan losses.

“(Third quarter 2022) marked the first quarter of performing provision additions across the Big Six since (fourth quarter 2020),” Dechaine wrote in a Nov. 17 note to clients. “The shift resulted from banks taking a more cautious outlook for credit risk, given the higher probability of an upcoming recession. However, the performing (allowance for credit loss) ratio actually declined (quarter-over-quarter), as loan growth outpaced provision ‘build.’”

Dechaine also pointed to the Bank of Canada’s more dovish pivot and expectations that the current rate hiking cycle may be nearing its end as a positive sign for the banks as slowing mortgage demand risks could moderate.

The upcoming quarter will give investors a better look under the hood on how the banks are closing out 2022 and how well-positioned they are to withstand an economic downturn.

Scotiabank will kick off earnings week on the morning of Nov. 29.

• Email: shughes@postmedia.com | Twitter:

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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