If houses are investments, then they’re subject to the harsh math of investing losses.
However much an asset falls in price, it has to rise by a larger percentage just to get back to the starting point.
The national average resale home price peaked at $816,720 in February and has since fallen a bit more than 21 per cent to $644,463 in October. To get back to the peak, we need the average price to rise by almost 27 per cent. Figure on it taking between four and five years to do that, if prices bounce back enough to revive the toxic idea that houses are investments.
Treating houses as investments means the death of affordability. The longer prices decline or flatline, the more opportunity there will be for home ownership to remain a viable middle-class goal.
Still, the investment mentality is a big reason why our housing market overheated. Attention must be paid.
What houses have going for them as investments is a decades-long history of price appreciation that beat inflation, and a capital gains tax exemption on the sale of a principal residence. That tax break is a key support for the idea of housing as a financial asset.
There are steep costs if you own a home, including maintenance, improvements and mortgage interest. But never mind that. Houses have clearly been seen as a can’t-miss investment in the past two years. The only way to explain the questionable buying decisions made in 2021 is that people saw houses and condos soaring in value and wanted a piece of the action.
House prices are falling in many cities, which adds some gritty authenticity to the idea of houses as an investment. Stocks are investments and everyone knows they go up and down in value.
Let’s look at how a recovery in house prices might play out. The annualized average price gain from 1980 to 2021 for resale homes was 5.8 per cent, which is an impressive three percentage points above the average inflation rate for that period.
If houses appreciate at an average annual rate of 5.8 per cent for the next 4.5 years or so, the average resale price would exceed the February peak. With a growth rate in prices of 2.9 per cent, it would take about 8.5 years to recover.
You’re in better shape if you bought in 2020 or early 2021, when mortgage rates were cheap and pandemic lockdowns drove people to find homes with more living space. If you bought at the average national resale price in January, 2021, you’re ahead by 3.7 per cent ahead, based on the average resale price for October. A purchase at the average price in October, 2020, leaves you up about 6 per cent.
There’s plenty of investment goodness left in a home bought at the average of $525,000 in October, 2019 – current prices are cumulatively almost 23 per cent higher than that, or 7.1 per cent on a compound average annual basis.
Investment success in housing comes at the expense of affordability for people trying to buy into the market. Expect to see more of this, not less.
Further increases in mortgage rates could hold back a price recovery, but there’s growing evidence that we are close to the end for the current cycle of rate hikes. A recession is possible, but the consensus so far is that it will be a) mild, and b) unlikely to cause rampant unemployment, which is deadly for housing. We still have a very tight job market in some sectors.
A clear advantage for housing is that nearly 1.45 million immigrants are expected to come to Canada in the next three years, a big number for a country with a population of not much more than 38 million. Expect housing supply to increase in the years ahead, and expect it to be soaked up to some extent by newcomers to Canada.
The historical 5.8 per cent growth rate in Canadian house prices was powered by a decades-long trend of falling interest rates. We could see falling rates by late next year. TD Economics sees the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate falling in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the Government of Canada bond yields that influence fixed mortgage rates are expected to fall through the year.
A quick rebound in house prices would end the dream of home ownership for young adults in some big cities. Prices haven’t fallen enough yet to discredit the seemingly unshakable idea of houses as an investment.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
