The global economic outlook for 2023 is murky at best, economists at Citi warn.
“As we survey the prospects for the global economy, we see many reasons for concern, including continued challenges from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation, and headwinds from central bank rate hikes,” Citi chief economist Nathan Sheets wrote in a client note Wednesday.
“Reflecting these factors, the global economy is likely to endure ‘rolling’ country-level recessions during the coming year.”
Citi believes the eurozone and U.K. will enter a recession by the end of this year. The U.S. stands to enter a recession by mid-2023, Sheets believes, as the full impact of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve is felt on consumers and businesses.
The relative winner, believe it or not, may be China.
“We see growth [in China] accelerating as the authorities soften the zero-Covid policy,” Sheets wrote.
“Still, excluding China, global growth next year will be running close to some definitions of global recession. More positively, many of the recessions in our forecast are relatively mild and should help pave the way for improved performance by early 2024.”
An employee works on a production line manufacturing steel structures at a factory in Huzhou, Zhejiang province, China May 17, 2020. Picture taken May 17, 2020. China Daily via REUTERS
Investors, however, appear to have forgotten about this sluggish outlook for global growth in 2023.
Amid signs of easing inflation, lower oil prices, and a renewed drop in the dollar, stocks have rallied since reaching recent lows in October. In the past month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is up 3%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has gained 1.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is mostly flat.
In the past week alone, strategists at Goldman Sachs have used the renewed market weakness to recommend investors gain more exposure to cash and have less risk tied to stocks and bonds.
“We remain relatively defensive for the three-month horizon with further headwinds from rising real yields likely and lingering growth uncertainty,” Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote this week.
Meantime, BNP Paribas has also outlined a tough road ahead for the global economy and stocks.
“We expect a downturn in global GDP growth in 2023, led by recessions in both the U.S. and the eurozone, with below-trend growth in China and many emerging markets,” the BNP strategy team said in a note.
“We expect new lows for equities in 2023. The 2022 correction has been mostly valuation-driven, and we expect 2023 to be all about earnings, supporting higher realized volatility.”
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
