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Local real estate head sees ‘return to normalcy’ in 2023

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The president of the Guelph and District Association of Realtors sees the local real estate market returning to normal next year.

A recent survey by Royal LePage is predicting a one per cent drop in the aggregate price of a home in Canada by the fourth quarter of 2023, to an estimated $765,171. That’s a drop from the $772,900 for Q4 this year.

Broken down, it’s seeing a two per cent decline in aggregate housing prices in the Greater Toronto Area, from $1,078,300 to $1,056,734.

The report didn’t discuss Guelph specifically in its forecast, but local association head Tyson Hinschberger noted Guelph and southern Ontario is always influenced by the GTA market.

So what does this all mean for Guelph?

“Certainly I think that at the end of the day, it speaks more to a return to normalcy and stability than probably a lot of the frenzy that we’ve seen over the last 12 to 18 months,” he said.

Speaking on behalf of the association, he believes the worst is behind us, and there seems to be more of an interest in buyers at least exploring making moves.

“I’ve spoken to a few people about making upsizing decisions or buying that second property lately,” said Hinschberger, who is also a real estate broker with Planet Realty.

“That’s anecdotal, but if you look at statistics across Wellington region, we’ve seen average prices, days on market and months of inventory, which we use to determine whether we’re in a buyers, sellers or a balanced market. They’ve all been pretty level since about the end of August.

“The declines that we had seen in the middle six months of the year, those have levelled off to a relatively balanced scenario.”

But there is a question mark for first-time buyers, and it’s all about timing and the interest rate.

“Variable rates have surpassed fixed rates in terms of their pricing, so what that suggests is that any future rate increases by the Bank of Canada would have less of an effect on the market because a buyer can opt into a fixed rate, which is determined by bond yields rather than the overnight lending rate,” he said.

Hinschberger said we’re in a better situation now than the summer, adding it’s easier to make plans to move in the balanced environment rather than a market that severely favours buyers or sellers.

But wanting to buy a house is one thing. It’s another to take a look, and it’s no secret there is a lack of supply being felt across this part of the province.

On supply and demand, Hinschberger said a supply shortage would suggest an increase is imminent to the prices of homes because more want homes than the supply available.

And even though we’ve seen changes made by the government to bring supply to market – most notably the controversial Bill 23 – Hinschberger said these things don’t happen overnight.

In Guelph, the province wants to see 18,000 new residential units built by 2032 as part of Bill 23.

Looking further down the line, the province has a target Guelph will grow to a population over 200,000 by 2051.

“You have a new permanent resident target of around 465,000 people next year (across Canada), and that supply will take a while to come to fruition,” he said. “It won’t provide immediate relief to that supply shortage. To the extent that the interest rate environment is still volatile, how much demand there is for that supply is still somewhat up in the air.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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