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Politics will move further to the left in 2023

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Some years have a way of giving countries, even continents, a shove in a new direction. In 1945 Europeans decided that the state had to take the lead in establishing a modern economy, a broader welfare state and a more peaceful continent. In 1979 a doubling of oil prices, which followed a decade of stagflation, brought about a swing away from cosy co-operation between the state and business towards a bigger role for markets and private enterprise. Might 2023 be another such year? It comes as a decade of low interest rates is ending, as high energy prices and inflation return to the world economy, and as war stalks Europe. It also comes in the wake of one of the deadliest pandemics in history and as China retreats from closer global integration.

If these trends were to presage broad political shifts in rich countries, you might expect politics to move left, if only in reaction to the mainly centre-right governments that dominated rich democracies during the previous decade. That already appears to be happening. In 2022 in the Bavarian Alps, at a meeting of the G7, a group of rich countries, Joe Biden could look around the table (see picture) and count five other leaders from the centre-left: those of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and, stretching a point, Japan—Kishida Fumio describes himself as a dove on foreign policy. (An election later moved Italy to the right.) In contrast, when Mr Biden’s Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, met his counterparts in 2010, all of them came from the right or centre-right.

This might, of course, be just an unusually synchronised swing of the pendulum, rather than the start of a broader shift. The right-wing success in the Italian general election of late 2022 is a reminder of the importance of national exceptions. Still, there are reasons for thinking that something more profound may be going on than just bashing whoever happens to be power. It is something that cuts across national borders.

Public opinion appears to be shifting to the left in rich democracies. In the United States, the share of respondents to surveys by the Pew Research Centre who said that banks had a positive impact on the economy fell from 49% in 2019 to 40% three years later (see chart 1). The decline for tech companies was comparable and for large companies greater; only a quarter of Americans thought they were a net plus. This seems a far cry from the 1980s’ belief that private enterprise would solve many of the world’s problems.

Anti-corporate sentiment is only a start. Half or more of respondents in America, Britain, France and Germany told Pew that their economies needed major change or a complete overhaul. The majority of those demanding greater reform described themselves as on the left. The public’s desire for sweeping changes may be underpinned by climate-change worries and a belief that not enough is being done about them. In another Pew poll in 19 countries, three-quarters of respondents described climate change as a major threat, making it a bigger concern than even the world economy and pandemics (see chart 2). On the face of it, people want more than business as usual.

The possibility that 2023 might prove to be some sort of turning-point is supported by the sort of tectonic shifts that lead to broad change, even if they rarely make headlines. For decades, the working-age share of the world’s population grew, producing more workers relative to children and retirees, and providing a so-called “demographic dividend” to the global economy. That exerted downward pressure on interest rates and wages, and pushed in the direction of greater income inequality, faster economic growth and high valuations of large companies. But as Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, both economists, point out, these trends can change—and sometimes quickly. The working-age share of the world’s population has been falling for ten years, interest rates have started to rise and the value of companies has sunk, at least as measured by the adjusted price-earnings ratio of S&P 500 companies, which dropped from 39 at the end of 2021 to 27 in December 2022.

Whether all this translates into a significant change of direction for democratic politics, however, is a different matter. For that to happen, public opinion or economic shifts are not enough. The turning points of the past were made possible not just because political parties espoused new beliefs but also because they were able to make the compromises needed to put ideas into practice. It is far from clear that political parties have the mandates, power or will to do that now.

Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan won landslide victories in the 1980s, but such decisive outcomes have become rarer. Between 1980 and 1996 the winner of the American presidency took the popular vote by a margin of almost ten points. From 2000 to 2020 the margin was less than 2.6 points. Joe Biden has the additional problem of managing a divided government. In Britain, the governing party won an average of 48% of the vote in elections from 1945 to 1960; since 2010, the winners’ share has been less than 40%. Voter turnouts have fallen sharply in most rich democracies. Parties cannot count on big popular mandates. And even if they get one, they may not last. In the French presidential election of April 2022 Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen convincingly by 59% to 41%. In legislative elections two months later, his party lost its majority and Ms Le Pen’s National Rally won more new seats than any other party. Like Mr Biden, Mr Macron is weakened by divided government.

In Europe in the 1960s parties were mass movements, with millions of members. No longer. Take Britain. The six parties in Parliament (excluding those from Northern Ireland) now have a combined membership of 846,000, below that of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. Voters are also more fickle, while fewer people see parties as vehicles for advancing political goals. “Our partisan allegiances”, Robert Talisse of Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, told the BBC “have become lifestyles, rather than principled views about what the government should be doing”. Parties have become expressions of narrow interest groups—or in some cases, megalomaniac egotists—rather than of broadly based social movements.

In the absence of mass membership and with elections turning on ever-finer margins, the incentives in most democratic countries are for parties to keep as many of their supporters as possible happy and not to take risks. That is not good news for anyone expecting a new direction in politics. There may be an appetite for broader change, but governments and hopeful oppositions will be cautious of taking advantage of it.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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