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Now that Teck Frontier is dead, is there a future for Canada's oilsands? – CBC.ca

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Alberta’s oilpatch was dealt another devastating blow this week with Teck Resources’ decision to pull the plug on its Frontier oilsands mining project — a move that has some analysts wondering whether the sector has a future in the long term.

Beyond Teck, all the major oilsands players have cancelled projects, indefinitely delayed final decisions or dramatically scaled back investments in recent months.

The industry is facing a perfect storm of low oil prices, legal challenges, regulatory uncertainty, Indigenous opposition, constrained pipeline capacity and a government in Ottawa seized with stopping and reversing the disastrous effects of climate change.

Oil is still Canada’s most valuable export, and the volume this country sells abroad is still growing year-over-year thanks to companies squeezing more from existing operations. But long-term growth prospects are in doubt, analysts say.

“A lot of companies are saying, ‘Why bother with Canada, forget it, we’re going elsewhere,'” said Laura Lau, who helps manage $2 billion in assets at Brompton Corp. in Toronto.

The Frontier project may very well be the last open-pit mining operation ever pitched in Canada, she said.

‘This may be the nail in the coffin’

The only projects likely to move forward now, she said, are expansions to existing operations and those that use steam to extract crude from deep under the earth — known as “in-situ” projects.

“This may be the nail in the coffin,” Lau said.

Teck reduced the emissions intensity of its operations, committed to going net-zero by 2050 and signed impact benefit agreements with every First Nations in the area — and it still wasn’t enough to get the project over the line, she said.

“They did everything the federal government asked them to do and it still wasn’t good enough. So the question is, what is good enough?” Lau said. “The political risk is just too high for these companies.”

Harrie Vredenburg is a professor of global energy at the University of Calgary’s school of business. He said persistently low oil prices are party to blame for Teck’s decision — but so too is Ottawa’s handling of the rail blockades.

“The political morass we’re in, it’s a mess. What you have are investors or directors of a company like Teck who are saying, ‘This isn’t the kind of place we want to be investing in,'” Vredenburg said.

He said the headwinds faced by the Coastal GasLink project — which is to carry natural gas, not oil, to the coast for export — has also created a chilling effect.

While that project’s proponent, TC Energy, has received the necessary provincial permits and secured agreements with all of the neighbouring elected Indian Act band councils, some hereditary chiefs derailed years of planning by blocking a single roadway, Vredenburg said.

Protesters man a rail blockade near Hamilton, Ont., on Feb. 25, 2020, disrupting GO Transit on the morning commute. The protest is in support of Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs who oppose the Coastal GasLink natural gas pipeline project in B.C. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

‘Existential crisis’

“Companies comply with all the regulations and in the end it still comes down to a political decision. There’s a lot of ambiguity and uncertainty in this country for investment in any type of resource,” he said.

“This is a serious existential crisis for this country.”

He said federal-provincial “bickering” over the country’s energy policy, and how it agrees with a national commitment to lower greenhouse gas emissions and address decades-old questions about Indigenous rights and title, has sent capital fleeing to safer jurisdictions.

Teck’s president and CEO, Don Lindsay, cited this uncertainty as reason enough to cancel major capital investments like the $20 billion the mining firm was ready to invest in the Frontier mine.

Lindsay said Teck did not want to be “at the nexus of much broader issues that need to be resolved … there is no constructive path forward.”

Map showing the location of the Ronald Lake Bison Range in relation to where Teck Resources planned to build the Frontier mine. (CBC News Graphics)

Alberta has seen foreign investment all but evaporate — some $30 billion in foreign capital has fled in the last five years — leaving only the domestically owned players ready to invest in the sector.

“If you’re on the outside looking in, you’re saying, ‘Whoa, we’ll wait to see if that ever passes.’ Canada is all risk, risk, risk,” Vredenburg said.

Lau said Teck’s decision validates earlier moves by France’s Total and Norway’s Equinor, among others, to divest their Canadian oilsands assets and jump ship for projects elsewhere.

“Oil and gas projects are getting built all over the world right now, everywhere except Canada. Death by delay is a tactic that Justin Trudeau has used for years to kill energy projects that are of national importance,” said Conservative MP Shannon Stubb, the party’s energy critic.

Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan said Ottawa isn’t abandoning the sector.

“Important parts of Canada’s economy have been built on our natural resource sector and the workers across the country who have powered it for generations. Our government is committed to developing our natural resources sustainably and to creating good, middle class jobs,” he said in a statement after the Teck decision was announced.

But the list of projects that companies say they’re willing to build is literally shrinking by the day.

Only days ago, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) approved the Meadow Creek West development — but the proponent, Suncor, has said it’s not ready yet to make a final investment decision. One of the company’s most promising developments has been deferred. Suncor has said that construction of Meadow Creek — if it happens — is still years away and wouldn’t start producing oil until closer to end of the decade.

Last November, Imperial put its Aspen oilsands project in northern Alberta on hold. The company, owned in part by U.S. giant ExxonMobil, also shelved plans for a $2.4 billion expansion of its existing Cold Lake operation in favour of a much smaller investment in another site.

Imperial Oil president and CEO Rich Kruger prepares to address the company’s annual meeting in Calgary on April 26, 2019. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

Cenovus finished a large expansion of its Christina Lake facility early last year but it has yet to pump more oil from the site because Alberta’s oil curtailment policy — enacted because Canadian oil prices are substantially lower than the going world rate — has limited the possibility of profits.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) bought a controlling stake in the proposed Pike development, a project that has secured all of the necessary permits, but the company just isn’t ready to commit.

Investors have noticed: Cenvous is trading near five-year lows despite a moderate improvement in oil prices in recent months. Suncor’s share price also has been battered. Imperial Oil trades at just half of where it was some six years ago.

In addition to the political and legal risks, the cost of extracting oil from Alberta’s oilpatch is higher than it is in other jurisdictions.

Based on estimates reported by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) and the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI), the break-even price for a new stand‑alone mine like Frontier is currently within the US$75‑85 a barrel range.

The break-even price for new steam‑assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operations, the most commonly used technique for the thermal in‑situ recovery, is around US$60 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at just US$50 a barrel at close Tuesday. Western Canadian Select, which includes product from the oilsands, changed hands at US$28.93 — meaning many projects are simply unviable given the existing cost structures of the Canadian industry.

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NASA astronauts won’t say which one of them got sick after almost eight months in space

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CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Three NASA astronauts whose prolonged space station mission ended with a trip to the hospital last month declined to say Friday which one of them was sick.

Astronauts Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt and Jeanette Epps publicly discussed their spaceflight for the first time since returning from the International Space Station on Oct. 25. They spent nearly eight months in orbit, longer than expected because of all the trouble with Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule and rough weather, including Hurricane Milton.

Soon after their SpaceX capsule splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast, the three were taken to a hospital in nearby Pensacola along with Russian cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin, who launched with them back in March.

One of the Americans ended up spending the night there for an undisclosed “medical issue.” NASA declined to say who was hospitalized or why, citing medical privacy.

When asked at Friday’s news conference which one had been sick, the astronauts refused to comment. Barratt, a doctor who specializes in space medicine, declined to even describe the symptoms that the unidentified astronaut had.

“Spaceflight is still something we don’t fully understand. We’re finding things that we don’t expect sometimes. This was one of those times and we’re still piecing things together on this,” said Barratt, the only member of the crew who had flown in space before.

Epps said everyone is different in how they respond to space — and gravity.

“That’s the part that you can’t predict,” she said, adding, “Every day is better than the day before.”

Dominick said little things like sitting comfortably in a hard chair took several days to get used to once he returned. He said he didn’t use the treadmill at all during his time in space, as part of an experiment to see what equipment might be pared on a long trip to Mars. The first time he walked was when he got out of the capsule.

The two astronauts who served as test pilots for Boeing’s Starliner — Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams — will remain at the space station until February, flying back with SpaceX. Starliner returned empty in September.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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43 monkeys remain on the run from South Carolina lab. CEO thinks they’re having an adventure

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COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Forty-three monkeys bred for medical research that escaped a compound in South Carolina have been spotted in the woods near the site and workers are using food to try to recapture them, authorities said Friday.

The Rhesus macaques made a break for it Wednesday after an employee at the Alpha Genesis facility in Yemassee didn’t fully lock a door as she fed and checked on them, officials said.

“They are very social monkeys and they travel in groups, so when the first couple go out the door the others tend to just follow right along,” Alpha Genesis CEO Greg Westergaard told CBS News.

Westergaard said his main goal is to have the monkeys returned safely with no other problems. “I think they are having an adventure,” he said.

The monkeys on Friday were exploring the outer fence of the Alpha Genesis compound and are cooing at the monkeys inside, police said in a statement.

“The primates are exhibiting calm and playful behavior, which is a positive indication,” the police statement said, adding company workers are closely watching the monkeys while keeping their distance as they work to safely recapture them.

The monkeys are about the size of a cat. They are all females weighing about 7 pounds (3 kilograms).

Alpha Genesis, federal health officials and police all said the monkeys pose no risk to public health. The facility breeds the monkeys to sell to medical and other researchers.

“They are not infected with any disease whatsoever. They are harmless and a little skittish,” Yemassee Police Chief Gregory Alexander said Thursday.

Authorities still recommend that people who live near the compound about 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) from downtown Yemassee shut their windows and doors and call 911 if they see the monkeys. Approaching them could make them more skittish and harder to capture, officials said.

Eve Cooper, a biology professor at the University of Colorado Boulder who has studied rhesus macaques, said the animals have the potential to be dangerous and urged people to keep their distance.

Rhesus macaques monkeys can be aggressive. And some carry the herpes B virus, which can be fatal to humans, Cooper said.

However, Alpha Genesis states on its website that it specializes in pathogen-free primates. Cooper noted that there are pathogen-free populations of rhesus macaques that have been quarantined and tested.

“I would give them a wide berth,” Cooper said. “They’re unpredictable animals. And they can behave quite aggressively when they’re afraid.”

Alpha Genesis provides primates for research worldwide at its compound about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northeast of Savannah, Georgia, according to its website.

Locally, it is known as “the monkey farm.” And there is more amusement than panic around Yemassee and its population of about 1,100 just off Interstate 95 about 2 miles from Auldbrass Plantation, a Frank Lloyd Wright house designed in the 1930s.

There have been escapes before, but the monkeys haven’t caused problems, said William McCoy, who owns Lowcountry Horology, a clock and watch repair shop.

“They normally come home because that’s where the food is,” he said.

McCoy has lived in Yemassee for about two years and while he plans to stay away from the monkeys, he has his own light-hearted plan to get them back.

“I’m stocking up bananas, maybe they’ll show up,” McCoy said.

The Alpha Genesis compound is regularly inspected by federal officials.

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Agriculture fined Alpha Genesis $12,600 in part after officials said 26 primates escaped from the Yemassee facility in 2014 and an additional 19 got out in 2016.

The company’s fine was also issued because of individual monkey escapes as well as the killing of one monkey by others when it was placed in the wrong social group, according to a report from the USDA.

The group Stop Animal Exploitation Now sent a letter Thursday to the USDA asking the agency to immediately send an inspector to the Alpha Genesis facility, conduct a thorough investigation and treat them as a repeated violator. The group was involved in the 2018 fine against the company.

“The clear carelessness which allowed these 40 monkeys to escape endangered not only the safety of the animals, but also put the residents of South Carolina at risk,” wrote Michael Budkie, executive director of the group.

The USDA, which has inspected the compound 10 times since 2020, didn’t immediately respond to the letter.

The facility’s most recent federal inspection in May showed there were about 6,700 primates on site and no issues.

In a 2022 review, federal veterinarians reported two animals died when their fingers were trapped in structures and they were exposed to harsh weather. They also found cages weren’t adequately secure. Inspectors said criminal charges, civil penalties or other sanctions could follow if the problems weren’t fixed.

Since then, Alpha Genesis has undergone six inspections with minor problems reported only once.

In January 2023, the USDA said temperatures were out of the 45 to 85 degree Fahrenheit (7.2 to 29.5 degree Celsius) required range at some of the compound’s monkey cages. The inspection found moldy food in one bin, sharp edges on a gate that could cut an animal and sludge, food waste, used medical supplies, mechanical equipment, and general construction debris on the grounds.

Supporters of medical research involving nonhuman primates said they are critical to lifesaving medical advances like creating vaccines against COVID-19 because of their similarities to people. Keeping a domestic supply of the animals is critical to prevent shortages for U.S. researchers.

Humans have been using the rhesus macaque for scientific research since the late 1800s. Scientists believe that rhesus macaques and humans split from a common ancestor about 25 million years ago and share about 93% of the same DNA.

These monkeys have been launched into space on V2 rockets, used for AIDS research, had their genome mapped and made stars of their own reality television show. They were in such high demand in the early 2000s that a shortage led to scientists paying up to $10,000 per animal.

Outside of rats and mice, rhesus macaques are one of the most studied animals on the planet, said Dario Maestripieri, a behavioral scientist at the University of Chicago who wrote the 2007 book “Macachiavellian Intelligence: How Rhesus Macaques and Humans Have Conquered the World.”

The animals are very family oriented, siding with relatives when fights break out. And they’re adept at building political alliances in the face of threats from other monkeys. But they can be painful to watch. Monkeys with lower status in the hierarchy live in a constant state of fear and intimidation, Maestripieri said.

“In some ways, they kind of represent some of the worst aspects of human nature,” Maestripieri said.

___

Lovan reported from Louisville, Kentucky, and Finley reported from Norfolk, Virginia.



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Freeland says she’s ready to deal with Trump |

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Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks with reporters after chairing a special cabinet committee working on Canada’s plan to deal with the incoming Donald Trump administration. Freeland says she’s stood up for Canadian interests in the past and is ready to go another round. (Nov. 8, 2024)



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