Investment

Think twice before buying the top 10 ETFs of 2022

Published

2 years ago

January 11, 2023

Last year was a brutal one for investors. The S&P 500 gave up more than 18% in 2022, and the broad bond market surrendered 13%.

But over short periods, there’s a good chance at least one exchange-traded fund is still performing well. ETFs are baskets of stocks that track the performance of a market index but trade inexpensively on an exchange like a stock, making them popular choice among retail investors.

While many ETFs are designed to track broad market indexes, more niche funds offer investors exposure to virtually any slice of the market, and one is bound to be working. But what works in one year may not work in the next, or over the long term.

“If we look at the top of the NFL standings, we can have a pretty good idea that those are the best teams,” says Russ Kinnel, director of manager research at Morningstar. “It doesn’t work that way in investing. There’s much more luck and randomness involved.”

You don’t have to look very hard at the list of the top-performing ETFs to get a sense of what worked in an otherwise bleak 2022.

The top performing ETFs in 2022: a fund tracking stocks in Turkey, one designed to hedge against hikes to interest rates and a selection of ETFs that invest in the energy sector. (Notably, this list excludes leveraged and inverse ETFs, which are generally considered tools of options traders unsuitable for long-term investors.)

While this list is helpful to understand what went on in 2022, it isn’t necessarily an indication of how any of these funds will perform in the future.

Why these ETFs stood out in 2022

It doesn’t get much more random than investing in an index of Turkish stocks — for the average U.S.-based investor, at least. But in a year when stocks sank the world over, that index returned 106%.

After a grisly 2021, Turkish shares turned things around in 2022, thanks largely to the country’s central bank slashing interest rates during a period when everyone else was raising them. With inflation through the roof (it hit 85.5% in Turkey at one point this year) and the value of the lira eroding, Turks turned to the stock market in the hopes of protecting their cash from rising prices.

The majority of the rest of the list reflects a gangbusters year for the energy sector. The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to a spike in oil and natural gas prices as the U.S. and European Union sought to crimp Russian energy exports.

As a result, oil and natural gas firms in the S&P 500 delivered an average return of more than 59% in 2022. None of the other 10 sectors managed a positive return.

How to invest in ETFs in 2023

It can be tempting to buy last year’s winners in the hopes that they can continue an upward run. But be careful, investing experts say. The trends that drive stock prices one way or another can change quickly.

In hindsight, some of the drivers behind these ETFs’ success may seem obvious. “Predicting sector performance can look deceptively easy,” says Kinnel. “You can say it was obvious that energy would be good. But look at performance in individual years, and you’ll see it’s actually really hard.”

It’s difficult to predict how any investment or group of investments will behave in the near term. While knowing how an investment has performed recently can be a data point in your larger analysis, it should never be the sole reason you buy, says Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at ETF research firm VettaFi.

“The adage that past performance isn’t a predictor of future results is likely going to be just as relevant in 2023 as it was throughout the history of investing,” he says. “The market environment this year is going to be different.”

Rather than asking, “What have you done for me lately?” step back and look at any prospective fund’s long-term performance. By looking at a fund’s last several calendar years, you can get a sense of how it performs year in and year out in different types of markets, both in absolute terms and relative to peer funds.

“A single-year performance is information, not a verdict,” says Kinnel.

More important, consider the specific role any fund might play in your long-term investing plans. While it may seem attractive to bet on the next slice of the market to take off, you’d be wise to avoid devoting major space in your portfolio niche funds, which can be volatile and unpredictable, experts say.

Funds that track stock market sectors may seem like an intuitive way to invest in the market, but don’t invest unless you already have a broad-based core portfolio, says Rosenbluth.

“These should be complementing your strategy rather than being your broader strategy,” he says.

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Economy

Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

Published

4 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

Published

4 days ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

Published

2 weeks ago

September 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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