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Investors are underestimating inflation again

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A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


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Investors are holding their breath in anticipation of Thursday morning’s Consumer Price Index inflation report — arguably the most important piece of economic data so far this year.

There’s a lot riding on the outcome — if inflation keeps falling, that could support a market rally, while higher-than-expected inflation could send stocks sinking.

What’s happening: After a stormy 2022, the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation has become the chief preoccupation on Wall Street — with investors ascribing significant meaning to any economic data that could indicate what the Fed does next.

But recent data has been muddy. December’s hotly anticipated jobs report had something for everyone — easing wage growth and easing unemployment. Fed meeting minutes, released last week, also didn’t offer much in the way of conclusive answers.

That’s why this CPI report will command attention and go a long way toward shaping market expectations for the first Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year.

The Fed Funds Futures market still sees a high probability of a quarter percentage point rate hike on February 1, but the results of the CPI report could change that.

What Wall Street expects: Inflation cooled more than expected in October and November, leaving investors optimistic that the downward trend will continue into December and beyond. But a key reading of trading data tied to inflation suggests they expect inflation to fall faster than economists and Fed officials do.

December’s consumer prices are estimated to have increased 6.5% on an annual basis, down from 7.1% in November, according to economists surveyed Refinitiv. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to show no change versus November.

Yet inflation swaps, transactions in which one investor agrees to swap fixed payments for floating payments tied to the inflation rate, are indicating that investors believe inflation will come down to 2.5% in the next seven months, even as the Fed’s own projections say inflation will remain well above 3% until 2024.

The inflation swaps market is considered one of the easiest ways to gauge how the market thinks inflation will change over the next 12 months. Current expectations for a sharp fall in CPI indicates that investors think the Fed will likely cut rates this year in response to falling inflation levels.

The takeaway: Investors seem to keep forgetting a cardinal market rule: Don’t fight the Fed.

​​”The expectation with this week’s Consumer Price Index is for further easing of inflation pressures. Anything less than broad-based improvement will rattle investors’ nerves and keep the Fed active,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

Bets that the Fed will soon pivot away from elevated interest rates, even as officials say that they won’t, could mean more market volatility lies ahead.

Asian stocks enter bull market as investors bet on China

US stocks may be volatile, but in Asia markets are soaring.

Investors, buoyed by China’s pivot away from its economically painful zero-Covid policy and an easing of regulations on tech companies, are piling cash into the world’s second biggest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific index, which excludes Japanese companies, jumped 2.5% during Tuesday trading to close the day at 535.69 points. That’s up 24.6% since its most recent low on October 24, reports my colleague Anna Cooban.

A rebound in investor sentiment toward Chinese stocks has driven the rally. The MSCI China index rose 2.4% on Tuesday to stand 50% above its low on October 31. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has jumped 38% over the same period.

Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index — which tracks Chinese companies listed in the United States — rose 0.72% on Monday, putting it 71.3% above where it was trading in late October.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a Tuesday note that the bank had raised its share price targets for Chinese companies and “expect[s] China to top global equity market performance in 2023.”

Wells Fargo steps away from mortgages

Wells Fargo was once the number one player in the multi-trillion dollar US mortgage market. Now, the scandal-ridden bank is taking a step back as it grapples with the impact of higher interest rates and regulatory trouble.

The company announced on Tuesday that it would refocus its mortgage business on serving bank customers and minority homebuyers instead of acquiring new customers, reports my colleague Matt Egan.

The retreat will likely cause Wells Fargo to lay off at least some employees, though the bank did not announce any specifics. A spokesperson declined to comment on potential layoffs.

“Mortgage is an important relationship product, and our goal is to continue to be the primary lender to Wells Fargo bank customers as well as minority homebuyers,” Kleber Santos, Wells Fargo’s head of consumer lending, said in a statement.

The move comes as Wells Fargo continues to be in trouble with regulators. Last month, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ordered Wells Fargo to pay a record fine of $1.7 billion for “widespread mismanagement” over multiple years that harmed 16 million customer accounts.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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