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Fear seen all over Canadian markets hit by virus, economy chill – BNNBloomberg.ca

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Canada’s stock market rally has cracked. Volatility has spiked. And investors have been piling into government bonds, pushing yields to near-record lows.

Anxiety is everywhere for investors in the nation’s markets as the coronavirus outbreak and protests that hobbled rail traffic are magnifying concerns about an economic slowdown.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index lost this year’s gain in just four days of trading — it is down 0.1 per cent in 2020. It had been up 5.2 per cent as of last Thursday’s close.

A technical indicator that measures buying strength versus selling strength — known as the Bloomberg Fear and Greed indicator — slumped to the lowest level since the global market rout in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The coronavirus continued to spread across the world as new clusters of cases have emerged in Italy, Iran and South Korea. Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health David Williams confirmed Wednesday a new positive case of the virus in Toronto, taking the number of infections in Canada to more than 10.

Meanwhile, environmental and indigenous-rights activists have obstructed rail lines across Canada for weeks to protest the construction of TC Energy Corp.’s CUS$6.6 billion (US$5 billion) Coastal GasLink pipeline in British Columbia. That has paralyzed parts of the nation’s rail network in recent weeks, bringing grain movement to a near halt.

Now, analysts are expecting profits to slow for the first quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Almost a quarter of companies that have reported earnings results since Jan. 17 have cited or answered questions related to the virus or rail blockades and its potential impact on profits, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Bank of Montreal, said in a report published Wednesday.

Belski isn’t so worried. “While the coronavirus Covid-19 and rail blockades suggest a double hit to the Canadian supply chain, our work shows the overall impact is likely to be relatively minor.” Supply disruptions will present near-term earnings risks, but profit growth will rebound down the road, he added.

Wild Ride

‘Overdue correction’: Stocks extend slide as virus fears weigh

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, says we’re seeing an “overdue correction” in the markets as North American indices continue to fall on coronavirus fears.

Market turbulence has surged. At one point this week, volatility on the S&P/TSX soared to its highest level since Aug. 26. For the loonie, three-month implied volatility rose to the highest in almost four months as virus fears sparked demand to hedge the Canadian dollar’s weakness.

The loonie may continue to fall. Simon Harvey, a London-based market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. and Monex Canada Inc., said that “currency markets may be lining up for another serving of a Poloz special –- talking the currency down in order to do the bank’s bidding in the short-run, thus buffering the Canadian economy from slowing global growth headwinds.”

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommends going long on the Japanese yen against the Canadian dollar as currency markets enter a “longer period of virus-related uncertainty,” strategist Zach Pandl said in a note to clients Wednesday.

His view is based on the expectation that risk aversion will remain high, “dollar bloc” currencies will underperform, and that the Bank of Canada could turn more dovish. Markets are pricing in at least two interest rate cuts from the central bank this year.

In fixed income, plunging bond yields boosted gains on government debt while spreads in the corporate bond market increased to their widest since mid-December. That’s another indicator of economic concern.

An aggregate index of Canadian bonds in U.S. dollars returned 1.4 per cent year to date, compared with a 2.9 per cent increase for a comparable U.S. benchmark, according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes. Yet investors snapped up a Canadian issue by Hydro One Ltd. on Wednesday, even as global credit markets grind to a virtual standstill amid the coronavirus outbreak.

For Baskin Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Barry Schwartz, long-term fundamentals are what count. “My advice to investors is the following. If you are a long term investor, you should do nothing or use the opportunity to improve your portfolio,” he said in a tweet Wednesday.

What’s been your stock strategy this week?



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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Economy

S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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