The Bank of Canada will offer minutes from its policy-setting meeting this week for the first time in its history, a move some analysts say will help restore credibility lost last year amid soaring inflation and encourage out-of-the-box thinking.
Annual inflation shot to 8.1% in June, the highest in 39 years and four times the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. In December, inflation slowed to 6.3%.
The BoC began hiking rates in March when its benchmark interest rate stood at 0.25%, and most analysts expect another quarter-point rate increase to 4.5% when the six-member governor council meets on Wednesday.
The so-called “summary deliberations” from the meeting will be published on Feb 8. On the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund, the BoC in September said it would release minutes to improve transparency,
Other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank already provide some form of record of their meetings.
“Anytime inflation is high – and when it’s been not high for the better part of 30 years to 40 years – the credibility of the institution is going to take a hit,” said Jeremy Kronick, director of monetary and financial services research at the C.D. Howe Institute, a pro-business think tank.
One of the criticisms of central bankers over the past year has been “that there was a lot of groupthink happening,” Kronick said, so offering a peek into the policy meeting “might allow people to see that there were debates and deliberations.”
Groupthink is where individuals overlook potential problems or new ideas in pursuit of a consensus. Last year central banks globally initially thought inflation would be “transitory,” or pass quickly.
Instead supply-chain difficulties persisted, economies bounced back quickly after restrictions eased, and the outbreak of war in Ukraine drove up energy costs leaving most – including the U.S. Federal Reserve – rushing to boost rates and tame inflation.
“The big enemy for policymakers and investors is groupthink,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC.
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem last year admitted missteps and promised more transparency. The glimpse into the policy meetings comes at a delicate moment, as the bank tries to steer the economy to a “soft landing” instead of a deep recession.
‘PR JOB’
Other market-watchers say releasing minutes is more an exercise in public relations than an effort to boost transparency.
“It’s mostly optics,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, adding that the minutes will be “a pretty tepid step” toward greater transparency.
David Rosenberg, president and founder of Rosenberg Research, said the BoC does not need to rebuild credibility because “the inflation we saw in the past 18 months was global.”
Instead, Rosenberg said: “It’s a PR job, with the bank saying, ‘Look at us, we’re becoming more transparent.'”
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, during his campaign to take over the party last year, blamed Macklem for letting inflation get out of hand and said he should be fired.
One potential pitfall is that the minutes could create uncertainty over the BoC’s overall message.
Now, everyone on the governing council “is singing from the same hymnal,” but the minutes could show they are not, said Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist for Invesco, a U.S. asset manager.
“One of the complaints sometimes that is made about the Fed is that there are disparate voices saying different things… and that can create confusion.”
Since policy decisions are made through consensus and not a vote, “the summary won’t provide attribution to individual council members, nor will it record votes because there are no votes in our system,” said Paul Badertscher, the bank’s director of media relations.
In October, Macklem said the minutes would reveal the key points of discussion, the options and risks that were weighed, and finally, how a consensus was reached and why.
(Reporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Deepa Babington)
EDMONTON – RCMP say a second suspect has been arrested in the killing of an Alberta county worker.
Mounties say 28-year-old Elijah Strawberry was taken into custody Friday at a house on O’Chiese First Nation.
Colin Hough, a worker with Rocky View County, was shot and killed while on the job on a rural road east of Calgary on Aug. 6.
Another man who worked for Fortis Alberta was shot and wounded, and RCMP said the suspects fled in a Rocky View County work truck.
Police later arrested Arthur Wayne Penner, 35, and charged him with first-degree murder and attempted murder, and a warrant was issued for Strawberry’s arrest.
RCMP also said there was a $10,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of Strawberry, describing him as armed and dangerous.
Chief Supt. Roberta McKale, told a news conference in Edmonton that officers had received tips and information over the last few weeks.
“I don’t know of many members that when were stopped, fuelling up our vehicles, we weren’t keeping an eye out, looking for him,” she said.
But officers had been investigating other cases when they found Strawberry.
“Our investigators were in O’Chiese First Nation at a residence on another matter and the major crimes unit was there working another file and ended up locating him hiding in the residence,” McKale said.
While an investigation is still underway, RCMP say they’re confident both suspects in the case are in police custody.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
RICHMOND, B.C. – The Integrated Homicide Investigation Team says the 26-year-old son of a man found dead on British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast has been charged with his murder.
Police say 58-year-old Henry Doyle was found badly injured on a forest service road in Egmont last September and died of his injuries.
The homicide team took over when the BC Coroners Service said the man’s death was suspicious.
It says in a statement that the BC Prosecution Service has approved one count of first-degree murder against the man’s son, Jackson Doyle.
Police say the accused will remain in custody until at least his next court appearance.
The homicide team says investigators remained committed to solving the case with the help of the community of Egmont, the RCMP on the Sunshine Coast and in Richmond, and the Vancouver Police Department.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, have broken off without an agreement following 15 hours of talks.
Joe McCann, president of Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they stayed at the bargaining table with help from a mediator until 2 a.m. Friday and made “some progress.”
However, he says the union negotiators didn’t get an offer that they could recommend to the membership.
McCann says that in some ways they are close to an agreement, but in other areas they are “miles apart.”
About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people who can’t navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last week, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.
McCann asks HandyDART users to be “patient,” since they are trying to get not only a fair contract for workers but also a better service for customers.
He says it’s unclear when the talks will resume, but he hopes next week at the latest.
The employer, Transdev, didn’t reply to an interview request before publication.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
