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What another Bank of Canada hike could mean to the housing market and borrowers

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Good Morning!

Another Bank of Canada interest rate decision is upon us and as the end of the hiking cycle draws near, it promises to be a cliff hanger.

The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate at a record pace of 400 bps in nine months to 4.25 per cent, and said after its last increase that a decision to raise rates further would depend on the data.

Most expect another hike tomorrow, and the market is putting high odds on a quarter-point increase, which would take the rate to 4.5 per cent.

But data have failed to provide a 100 per cent clear answer either way, and some economists are arguing that the Bank should hold fire.

“Those who argue that another 25 basis points increase will not kill the economy forget that at this stage of the business cycle, the impact of further hikes is not linear. In other words, the marginal increase could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” wrote National Bank economists Matthieu Arseneau and Taylor Schleich.

Signs of stress have been showing up in the Bank of Canada’s own indicators, says Capital Economics. The Bank uses the share of new mortgage borrowers (including renewals) with a debt service ratio of more than 25 per cent of income to identify financially vulnerable households. That share has grown from 12 per cent before the Bank started hiking to 27 per cent in the third quarter. Capital calculates that the share is on track to reach 35 per cent this quarter.

“We suspect the Bank is more concerned about the financial risks of its actions than it has let on so far,” said Capital economist Stephen Brown.

Homebuyers, struggling with the highest borrowing rates in almost 20 years, may also soon face tougher mortgage rules.

Canada’s banking watchdog, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions or OSFI, has proposed a number of measures beyond the existing mortgage stress test including loan-to-income and debt-to-income restrictions and debt-service coverage restrictions.

 

Currently the mortgage stress test puts the minimum qualifying rate for an uninsured mortgage at the greater of the contract rate plus two per cent, or 5.25 per cent.

“It’s going to be an interesting spring,” said Victor Tran, a RATESDOTCA mortgage expert. “If the BoC raises the overnight rate, we may see a slower housing market during the traditional spring housing rush than we are used to, as buyers wait for the market to bottom out before purchasing.

“However, the recent OSFI announcement could push more buyers into the market to purchase before they become unable to do so. Especially if it looks like the consultation will lead to changes in loan-to-income and debt-to-income ratios.”

Tran also predicts that if the Bank hikes the expected 25 bps and the variable-rate hits new highs the spring market may see a surge of investors forced to sell condos, possibly double the usual number.

That and a glut of new builds coming into the market in 2023 could bring condo prices down further.

A increase in mortgage fraud is also possible as people stretch to buy or renew a mortgage under the higher interest rates, he said.

If the Bank raises its rate by 25 basis points on Jan. 25 to 4.5 per cent, the prime rate of commercial banks will rise to 6.7 per cent.

RATESDOTCA says for every 25 bps increase a homeowner with a variable-rate mortgage can expect to pay about $14 more a month per $100,000 of mortgage.

Thus, a homeowner with a $500,000 mortgage at a rate of 5.25 per cent would see their rate rise to 5.50 per cent and payments increase $74 a month to $3,070, it said.

If this same homeowner had taken out their mortgage before March 2022, they would have seen a total increase to their mortgage payments of $1,129 a month since the Bank began hiking rates.

On a more hopeful note, BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic says mortgage rates should now be at or near their peak, if the Bank of Canada continues as expected.

If the Bank stops after a last 25 bps hike, the upward march of variable rates will end.

Meanwhile, a rally in government bonds has pulled 5-year yields in Canada — the basis for most long-term fixed mortgage rates — down to about 2.8 per cent, below the lows seen in December, said Kavcic.

These levels now look more consistent with 5-year fixed mortgage rates being in the 4.5 to 5 per cent range, he said, though it takes time for this to work through the system. (Currently 5-year fixed rates range from 4.39 to 6.49 per cent, according to mortgage comparison sites.)

“This is still a massive shock compared to readily available rates around 1.5 per cent just a year ago, but the stall in upward momentum should help at the margin, and offer some confidence that the worst of the rate shock is behind us,” wrote Kavcic.

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The market is betting the Bank of Canada will hike rates one more time on Jan. 25, with most commercial banks forecasting a quarter-point raise, which would bring the key rate to 4.5 per cent — the highest since 2007. Whether that’s a good bet remains to be seen. As National Bank’s chart above suggests the track record of market rate calls could be better. In all, the Bank of Canada surprised the markets five times in eight meetings in 2022.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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