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Economy

Traders Bet BOE Will Cut Rates Before Year-End to Shore Up Economy

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(Bloomberg) — Traders are betting the Bank of England will reverse course and cut its key interest rate later this year to shore up a flagging economy.

For the first time since August, money-market wagers show a quarter-point rate cut is fully priced in by year-end. A half-point hike from the BOE next month is still almost considered a done deal, with traders betting rates will continue to rise before peaking around 4.5% in the summer.

The repricing comes after a string of economic data pointed to growth stalling and inflation easing, and shows the market is beginning to doubt that the UK central bank will be able to keep rates that lofty for long. The bank’s policy rate currently sits at 3.5%, the highest in more than a decade.

“We are turning more positive on the economic prospect for Europe, but still remain negative on the UK,” said Mohit Kumar, a rates strategist at Jefferies. “For the BOE, even if we get a 50 basis-point hike in February, it would be a dovish 50 basis points.”

Figures Wednesday revealed UK factory price inflation rose at the slowest pace in almost a year, following separate releases Tuesday that signaled weak services industry sentiment and factories curtailing production at record rates.

Read more: UK Recession Risks Grow With Record Deficit and Output Slump

The end of hiking cycles are coming into sight for many developed economy central banks, prompting speculation from market participants over the likely trajectory of policy beyond the peak rate. Economists have argued that the BOE may be slower to cut rates versus peers, with factors including a scarcity of workers that is keeping inflation sticky.

The bets on rate cuts helped UK bonds outperform their German equivalents for a fifth session, with yields on 10-year gilts down seven basis points at 3.21%. The BOE is scheduled to meet next week, alongside the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.

–With assistance from Libby Cherry.

(Updates pricing, adds context in third paragraph.)

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Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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