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Bank of Canada delivers quarter-point hike; key interest rate now 4.5%

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The latest on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision

The Bank of Canada increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, but said that it expects to hold off further rate hikes, making it the first major central bank to pause monetary policy tightening.

This is the eighth consecutive rate increase, and brings the bank’s policy rate to 4.5 per cent.

The bank said it expects the Canadian economy to “stall” in the first half of the year, but does not foresee a significant recession. Inflation is expected to fall to about 3 per cent by the middle of this year.

Find live updates below.


10 a.m.

Bank of Canada announces quarter-point rate increase

The Bank of Canada increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, raising Canadian borrowing costs for the eighth consecutive time on Wednesday.

The widely-anticipated announcement brings the policy rate to 4.5 per cent.

Central bank officials have signalled that they’re nearing the end of the aggressive rate-hike cycle. But they opted for another rate increase on Wednesday after a string of economic data releases showed that the Canadian economy is proving resilient in the face of higher borrowing costs while inflation remains worryingly high.

– Mark Rendell


9 a.m.

Analysis: Wednesday’s announcement could mark ‘crucial turning point’ in rate cycle

Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate announcement could mark a crucial turning point in the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate cycle. I don’t want to say the actual decision on the bank’s policy rate (another quarter percentage point increase, or not?) is inconsequential. But ultimately, it will matter less than the key details of how the bank frames the future for the economy and its policy trajectory.

The rate statement itself typically runs about six to eight paragraphs, but my eyes always immediately seek out the final paragraph. That’s where the bank signals where it expects to take interest rates from here, and the key elements that will determine future decisions. It requires careful reading: Even small changes in wording, compared with the bank’s previous rate statement in December, can have big meaning.

The key phrase in the last paragraph of the December statement was, “Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further.” That was a shift from the October rate announcement (“the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further”), and signalled that the bank was getting close to the end of its rate hikes.

Another rewording on Wednesday could deliver the message that rates have entered a holding pattern. However, if the bank stands pat on that phrasing, it would imply that it’s not convinced that the rate hikes to date have slowed the economy and inflation sufficiently – and that it’s keeping its options open for at least one more rate increase.

Regardless of the choice of words, we’ll want to consider them in tandem with the bank’s new economic forecasts, which will be detailed in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, to be published at the same time as the rate decision.

The previous forecasts, in late October, overestimated fourth-quarter inflation, but they also may have overestimated fourth-quarter economic growth. There’s a chance that the fresh outlook could paint an increased risk of a mild recession. At the same time, there may be scope for the bank to chart a somewhat lower path for inflation. If it does so, that would open the door for a halt to further rate increases.

– David Parkinson


8:30 a.m.

Why is everyone talking about the Bank of Canada?

Mortgage rates are rising, home prices are falling, and talk of recession is in the air. Behind it all is the Bank of Canada and its aggressive campaign to wrestle inflation back to earth.

Over the past two years, Canada has experienced the first major inflation surge since the early 1980s. This has eroded the purchasing power of the dollar, and presented a crisis for the Bank of Canada, whose raison d’être is stabilizing the value of money.

The central bank responded last year by tightening monetary policy at the fastest pace in a generation, raising interest rates seven consecutive times. This hammered the housing market and is expected to cause the Canadian economy to stall through the first half of 2023.

At the same time, monetary policy has become a hot political topic. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has said he would fire Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has criticized the bank for continuing to raise rates.

So why is the central bank raising interest rates? What’s happening with inflation? And what control does the government have? Read our Bank of Canada explainer.

– Mark Rendell


8 a.m.

Bank of Canada expected to deliver final quarter-point rate hike

The Bank of Canada is expected to increase its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points today, although for the first time in nearly a year, a rate hike is not guaranteed. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)

The central bank will announce its decision at 10 a.m. ET, followed by a press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem at 11 a.m. ET.

The bank raised interest rates seven consecutive times last year, lifting the policy rate to 4.25 per cent from 0.25 per cent in an effort to get inflation under control. Bank officials signalled in December that they are nearing the end of the rate-hike cycle. The key question for today is whether they’re ready to hit pause.

Most Bay Street analysts are expecting a final quarter-point move, which would take the policy rate to 4.5 per cent. However, the bank is now in a “data dependent” phase of monetary policy, and could surprise markets by either holding pat or announcing a larger-than-expected rate hike.

“If we are surprised on the upside, we are still prepared to be forceful,” deputy governor Sharon Kozicki said after the last rate hike in December.

“But we recognize that we have raised interest rates rapidly and that their effects are working their way through the economy. In other words, we are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates.”

Economic data since December has come in stronger than expected, with particular strength in the labour market. Because the bank is intentionally trying to slow down the economy, this resilience through the final quarter of 2022 argues in favour of another hike.

Analysts will be watching for hints about the trajectory of future interest rates. Will Mr. Macklem be explicit about the end of the rate-hike cycle, or will he maintain that decisions will depend on incoming data? Will there be any mention of holding rates at their current level for an extended period? All eyes will be on the press conference.

The bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, containing new economic growth and inflation forecasts. In its last report from October, the bank said it expected GDP growth to stall through the first half of 2023, putting the economy on the edge of recession. Watch for any explicit mentions of the R-word.

Read more about today’s expected Bank of Canada interest rate hike announcement.

– Mark Rendell

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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