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Bank of Canada raises interest rate again — but hints that hikes may be done for now

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The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate again, to 4.5 per cent.

The move was widely expected by economists as the bank tries to wrestle record-high inflation into submission.

It’s the eighth time in less than a year that the bank has hiked its trend-setting rate, a move that will make borrowing money more expensive.

But at one quarter of a percentage point, it’s also the smallest hike since March, and thus a sign that the bank may be done with hiking rates for the next little while.

The bank said as much in a statement accompanying its decision, noting that “if economic developments evolve broadly in line with outlook, [the bank] expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.”

The bank also gave itself a sliver of wiggle room, however, to raise rates even more if inflation persists. “The governing council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2 per cent target,” the bank said.

Mezba Mahtab owns a home in Whitby, Ont. Much to his chagrin, he got a variable rate loan when he bought the property in 2021.
Mezba Mahtab owns a home in Whitby, Ont. Much to his chagrin, he got a variable rate loan when he bought the property in 2021. (Laura MacNaughton/CBC)

If the central bank is indeed finished hiking rates, it’s not a moment too soon for people like Mezba Mahtab. He and his wife bought a home in Whitby, Ont. in 2021. They were renters paying just shy of $2000 a month previously, but they stretched got a variable rate loan to buy more space for their children.

Their original mortgage payment was about $3,000 a month — a bit of a stretch, but workable within their family budget.

Since then, however, their montly payment has ballooned to more than $5,000, a level that Mahtab says gobbles up every penny he can get his hands on. “I’ve heard the term house poor before, but this is the first time I’m feeling it,” he told CBC News in an interview.

 

Bank of Canada strategy to tame inflation is out of date, says economist

Economist Armine Yalnizyan says the kinds of inflationary pressures that exist today make it extremely difficult for the Bank of Canada to tame inflation to about 2 per cent through interest rate hikes.

He questions why the central bank keeps raising rates so aggressively, bringing pain on home owners like him while doing little to bring down the cost of living.

“I don’t believe it when they say this will control inflation, all it has done is made my bank richer,” he said.

Forecasting 3% inflation this year

The hikes so far have managed to bring inflation down from about four times the normal level to only about three times, but the central bank says it’s confident that the rate will come down sooner than many are anticipating.

According to the bank’s latest projections in the Monetary Policy Report also released Wednesday, the Bank of Canada expects the headline inflation number to come down to as low as three per cent by the end of this year, and then two per cent next year.

They aren’t the only ones who think so, either. Stephen Brown an economist with Capital Economics, thinks Canada’s economy is slowing down rapidly, and inflation may be back into the range of between one and three per cent sooner than many think it will.

“We continue to that the Bank is underestimating how quickly core prices will decline, with our forecasts still pointing to a drop in headline inflation to 2 per cent by the second half of this year,” he said. “The upshot is that we remain confident that today’s hike will be the last and we see scope for the Bank to start cutting interest rates again as soon as the third quarter.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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