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Move over, BCE and Rogers. Investors have a new telecom favourite

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The Federal Court of Appeal’s approval this week of Rogers Communications Inc.’s RCI-B-T takeover of Shaw Communications Inc. SJR-B-T should be bad news for Telus Corp. T-T, the company most strongly opposed to the $20-billion deal.

So why is Telus the best-performing telecom stock so far this year?

The share price of the Vancouver-based company is up 8.7 per cent in 2023. That’s well ahead of Rogers, which is up about 2 per cent, even though the Toronto-based company stands to gain from expanding its national footprint when it adds Shaw’s network, assuming the deal closes.

Telus is also ahead of Shaw, which is up 1.7 per cent this year but still below its takeover price of $40.50 a share. And Telus is leading Quebecor Inc. QBR-B-T, whose Videotron subsidiary will buy Shaw’s Freedom Mobile wireless business after the Rogers-Shaw deal closes.

Telus has also gained more than BCE Inc. BCE-T, a popular stock because of its telecom-industry-leading 5.9 per cent dividend yield. BCE shares are up 4.8 per cent in 2023.

Admittedly, four weeks is a short period of time to measure share price performance. Stock returns look different when the time horizon is stretched to three months or one year, given that Telus has fallen behind some of its peers over some longer periods.

Yet January’s upbeat returns suggest that investors may be looking beyond the Rogers-Shaw deal as a pivotal event within the Canadian telecom sector. Perhaps they see other factors giving Telus a boost, even as the deal – which still requires final approval from the federal Industry Minister – threatens to raise the competitive pressure on the company’s home turf in Western Canada.

Enthusiastic investors may be onto something here. Mutual fund managers are overwhelmingly in favour of Telus relative to other telecom stocks, based on CIBC Capital Markets data showing that institutional investors have significantly overweighted the stock relative to its weighting within the S&P/TSX 60 Index.

As well, CIBC Capital Markets analyst Stephanie Price this month upgraded Telus to “outperformer” from “neutral” – the equivalent of moving to a “buy” recommendation from “hold” – based on what she believes is a discounted valuation for the stock.

And RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds recently singled out Telus as his top Canadian telecom stock pick. This week’s ruling from the Federal Court of Appeal, which he believes is good news for Rogers, Shaw and Quebecor, didn’t changed that view.

In his outlook for the telecom sector – released earlier this month and based on the assumption that the Rogers-Shaw deal will be approved – Mr. McReynolds said that Telus was his only “outperform” recommendation in the sector.

His reasoning: The telecom sector could struggle with stock valuations that are hardly cheap, given high price-to-earnings ratios. The sector is also vulnerable to a recession, which could weigh on profit growth.

He expects Rogers’s share price will rise to $69 within 12 months, but that’s just 6 per cent above its current price. His target price for BCE is $63, which is less than 2 per cent above the current price and suggests investors will be collecting little more than dividends over the next year.

However, Telus stands out from its peers with a target price of $34, which implies a gain of nearly 20 per cent.

According to Mr. McReynolds, Telus is compelling for a couple of key reasons.

It has largely completed the expensive work of installing fibre-optic cable to homes and businesses, which means that the company’s capital expenditures will likely fall 31 per cent this year from last year. That will drive free cash flow to $2.7-billion, or well more than double the estimate of $1.1-billion in 2022, which is money that can be used to pay down debt.

As well, he expects that Telus will see its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, which is a measure of profitability) rise by a peer-leading 10.4 per cent in 2023.

That’s twice the pace of what Mr. McReynolds expects from Rogers, and is partly based on Telus continuing to grab significant internet market share and reporting strong growth in its non-telecom health technology and agribusiness divisions.

No doubt, there could be volatility ahead for Canadian telecom stocks as investors weigh high interest rates against a looming economic downturn, and Telus isn’t immune to shifting conditions. But if January is any indication, the Rogers-Shaw deal may be old news as investors focus on a new favourite.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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