The vast majority of workers in Ontario haven’t experienced anything quite like it their entire working lives: a labour market tilted in their favour.
Statistics show unemployment running as low as it’s ever been, record-high job vacancy numbers and unprecedented labour force participation rates.
The labour market is “the tightest it’s been in half a century, and it’s not unique to Ontario,” says economist Armine Yalnizyan. “It’s happening all through the global north, wherever there was a baby boom after the Second World War.”
“There’s a traffic jam of employers looking to hire,” says Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed, a job-search website.
This article launches a year-long project by CBC Toronto called “Workers Wanted.” It will delve into what’s happening in the job market in the GTA and around the province, the impact on employers and employees, possible solutions to the labour crunch and how the changing workforce affects our daily lives. Do you have a story to tell? Get in touch via the callout at the bottom of this story.
This profound shift in the job market has implications for just about everybody, whether you’re an ordinary worker, an employer, a political leader, or someone waiting to get care in a hospital or service in a restaurant.
It could bring about significant changes in the world of work — from recruitment tactics to workplace culture to salaries — but that largely depends on how governments and employers respond.
The federal government is allowing certain employers, including hospitals and the food services industry, to fill up to 30 per cent of jobs with temporary foreign workers. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
Premier Doug Ford spoke of “endless employment opportunities” in Ontario during a news conference in Brampton last month.
“You could walk down every street in this province and find a job in every single sector. We need 380,000 people to fill the existing jobs that we have right now,” Ford said.
The most recent figures from Statistics Canada show 372,000 job vacancies in Ontario during the third quarter of 2022. That’s nearly double the average number of vacancies (195,000) reported during the three years leading up to 2020.
But how good are these jobs? For a fuller picture of what’s really going on in the labour market, take a deeper look into what Statistics Canada found about the current vacancies:
60 per cent of the job vacancies in Ontario required no more than high school education, paying on average less than $20 an hour.
Nearly 200,000 jobs required less than one year of experience.
More than one-third of the job vacancies were in sales and service.
Still, the overall dynamics of the job market in the province differ substantially from how things were before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Politicians and business leaders sometimes describe what’s happening as a worker shortage, but that framing doesn’t sit well with some observers.
“I’m not sure that it’s so much a shortage of workers as a shortage of employers that are willing to pay the wages necessary to get people to work for them,” said Don Wright, former head of the public service in British Columbia, now a fellow with the Public Policy Forum think tank.
Bernard also pushes back against the use of the term “worker shortage,” saying it has negative connotations and lacks precision.
“I tend to focus more on the balance of strength and power in the labour market when it comes to job seekers versus employers,” Bernard said in an interview.
The way this balance of power has shifted should force employers to shift their mindset, particularly when it comes to compensation, says Yalnizyan, the Atkinson Foundation’s fellow on the future of work.
“They’ve had 40 years of labour surpluses and they still think workers are a dime a dozen,” Yalnizyan said in an interview.
Economist Armine Yalnizyan, the Atkinson Foundation’s fellow for the future of work, says the sectors with the greatest difficulty finding workers tend to be the ones with the poorest pay and working conditions. She says those employers need to rethink their approach to hiring. (Christian Patry/CBC)
“Businesses that are raising wages and improving working conditions, offering more flexibility in how people take time off or offering more benefits, those places are finding it much easier to fully staff their businesses.”
Not all employers are prepared to do that.
Making current staff work more
Even among Canadian businesses that considered labour force shortages to be an obstacle, less than two-thirds planned to offer current employees a wage increase, less than half planned to boost wages to lure new hires, and only one in five planned to enhance employee benefits, according to a Statistics Canada report last year.
So how do companies intend to deal with the labour crunch? That same report found that half of all businesses said they expected current management and staff to work more.
The federal government’s primary solution is to bring in more workers from outside the country.
The Trudeau government quietly launched its biggest-ever expansion of Canada’s temporary foreign worker (TFW) program last year.
The most recent figures from Statistics Canada show 372,000 job vacancies in Ontario, nearly double the average in the three years before the COVID-19 pandemic began. (Laura Meader/CBC)
The changes mean that temporary foreign workers can now make up 30 per cent of an employer’s workforce in certain sectors, including accommodation and food services, construction, some manufacturing industries, nursing homes and hospitals.
In all other sectors, employers can now hire up to 20 per cent of their staff from the TFW program, double the previous cap of 10 per cent.
Hiring more temporary foreign workers
Employers leapt at the opportunity.
Approvals to fill Ontario jobs with temporary foreign workers more than doubled in the July-September 2022 period compared with the same months in the previous year, according to the most recently available federal statistics.
In sales and service occupations in Ontario, the number of approvals to hire temporary foreign workers tripled.
Wright — who describes himself as “a big proponent of healthy levels of immigration” — questions the wisdom of this approach.
“This notion of, ‘I’m a business, I can’t get workers to work at the wage I want to pay, therefore the government should fix that problem,’ I just think is really misguided,” Wright said in an interview.
For its part, the Ford government is also looking at other ways to expand Ontario’s labour pool, such as streamlining accreditation for certain foreign-trained professionals and tradespeople, or expanding programs designed to help the long-term unemployed get into the workforce.
The labour crunch is undoubtedly most acute in certain sectors of the Ontario economy. You can see that measured by the job vacancy rate: the number of unfilled jobs as a percentage of the employed labour force.
From 2017 through 2019, Ontario’s job vacancy rate averaged 3.1 per cent across all sectors. Over the past year, it’s averaged 5.3 per cent.
Particularly high job vacancy rates are currently found in restaurants and bars (10.2 per cent), nursing homes (8.5 per cent), truck transportation (8 per cent) and building construction (7.7 per cent), according to Statistics Canada.
If the Bank of Canada gets its way, the labour market will shift back toward employers.
“Companies continue to tell us they’re having trouble attracting all the workers they need. That’s a symptom of an overheated economy,” governor Tiff Macklem said Wednesday in a news conference following the Bank of Canada’s announcement of another increase to its benchmark interest rate.
“Part of rebalancing demand and supply in the economy is rebalancing the labour market,” said Macklem.
“We do expect to see some cooling of the labour market. We expect it to come into better balance.”
Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.
The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.
Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.
The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.
The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.
The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.
The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.
Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.
In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.
“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.
As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.
Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.
REGINA – Saskatchewan’s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:
Saskatchewan Party
— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.
— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.
— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.
— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.
— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.
— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.
— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults
— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.
— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.
— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.
— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.
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NDP
— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.
— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.
— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.
— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.
— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.
— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.
— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.
— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.
— Scrap the marshals service.
— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.
— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.
VANCOUVER – More than a million British Columbians have already cast their provincial election ballots, smashing the advance voting record ahead of what weather forecasters say will be a rain-drenched election day in much of B.C., with snow also predicted for the north.
Elections BC said Thursday that 1,001,331 people had cast ballots in six days of advance voting, easily breaking a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.
More than 28 per cent of all registered electors have voted, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout on Saturday.
“It reflects what I believe, which is this election is critically important for the future of our province,” New Democrat Leader David Eby said Thursday at a news conference in Vancouver. “I understand why British Columbians are out in numbers. We haven’t seen questions like this on the ballot in a generation.”
He said voters are faced with the choice of supporting his party’s plans to improve affordability, public health care and education, while the B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are proposing to cut services and are fielding candidates who support conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic and espouse racist views.
Rustad held no public availabilities on Thursday.
Elections BC said the record advance vote tally includes about 223,000 people who voted on the final day of advance voting Wednesday, the last day of advance polls, shattering the one-day record set on Tuesday by more than 40,000 votes.
The previous record for advance voting in a B.C. election was set in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, when about 670,000 people voted early, representing about 19 per cent of registered voters.
Some ridings have now seen turnout of more than 35 per cent, including in NDP Leader David Eby’s Vancouver-Point Grey riding where 36.5 per cent of all electors have voted.
There has also been big turnout in some Vancouver Island ridings, including Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where 39 per cent of electors have voted, and Victoria-Beacon Hill, where Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is running, with 37.2 per cent.
Advance voter turnout in Rustad’s riding of Nechako Lakes was 30.5 per cent.
Total turnout in 2020 was 54 per cent, down from about 61 per cent in 2017.
Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said many factors are at play in the advance voter turnout.
“If you have an early option, if you have an option where there are fewer crowds, fewer lineups that you have to deal with, then that’s going to be a much more desirable option,” said Prest.
“So, having the possibility of voting across multiple advanced voting days is something that more people are looking to as a way to avoid last-minute lineups or heavy weather.”
Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.
Environment Canada said the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.
Eby said the forecast of an atmospheric weather storm on election day will become a “ballot question” for some voters who are concerned about the approaches the parties have towards addressing climate change.
But he said he is confident people will not let the storm deter them from voting.
“I know British Columbians are tough and they’re not going to let even an atmospheric river stop them from voting,” said Eby.
In northern B.C., heavy snow is in the forecast starting Friday and through to Saturday for areas along the Yukon boundary.
Elections BC said it will focus on ensuring it is prepared for bad weather, said Andrew Watson, senior director of communications.
“We’ve also been working with BC Hydro to make sure that they’re aware of all of our voting place locations so that they can respond quickly if there are any power outages,” he said.
Elections BC also has paper backups for all of its systems in case there is a power outage, forcing them to go through manual procedures, Watson said.
Prest said the dramatic downfall of the Official Opposition BC United Party just before the start of the campaign and voter frustration could also be contributing to the record size of the advance vote.
It’s too early to say if the province is experiencing a “renewed enthusiasm for voting,” he said.
“As a political scientist, I think it would be a good thing to see, but I’m not ready to conclude that’s what we are seeing just yet,” he said, adding, “this is one of the storylines to watch come Saturday.”
Overall turnout in B.C. elections has generally been dwindling compared with the 71.5 per cent turnout for the 1996 vote.
Adam Olsen, Green Party campaign chair, said the advance voting turnout indicates people are much more engaged in the campaign than they were in the weeks leading up to the start of the campaign in September.
“All we know so far is that people are excited to go out and vote early,” he said. “The real question will be does that voter turnout stay up throughout election night?”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version said more than 180,000 voters cast their votes on Wednesday.
