Canada doesn’t have enough troops to deploy without resorting to mobilization, report warns.
The idea looks good on paper.
But converting NATO’s so-called “tripwire” forces in the three Baltic countries to fully topped-up fighting brigades — the kind that could withstand a Russian invasion — is proving to be a challenge for the lead nations involved: Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany.
At the last NATO summit in Madrid, leaders of the western military alliance ordered the conversion of battle groups in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to full combat brigades with anywhere from 4,000 to 6,000 troops each, depending on the availability of equipment.
Getting there is proving to be a struggle, according to two recent reports — one from the U.K. House of Commons, the other from a Warsaw-based international affairs think-tank.
Since that June NATO summit, journalists have been asking Canadian politicians and military officials when the Canadian-led brigade in Latvia will be created and what it will look like. Their responses have been vague.
In a recent interview with CBC News, Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre wouldn’t be pinned down to a precise timeline but said “the first exercise we’re looking at is in 2024 … at the brigade level.”
Which means that completing the expansion to brigade level could take Canada two years from start to finish.
And it seems Canada isn’t the only country struggling with the creation of combat brigades — despite the demands of Baltic leaders and the political urgency western politicians have attached to the project.
A research briefing for the British House of Commons noted that the U.K., which leads the NATO mission in Estonia, has two battle groups assigned to the country — one under the alliance flag, the other deployed bilaterally by former prime minister Boris Johnson in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine.
“However, in October the Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the additional battlegroup will not be replaced in 2023,” said the research paper, dated Nov. 21, 2022.
“The U.K. will continue to lead the NATO battlegroup. Instead of the additional battlegroup, the U.K. will hold at high readiness the ‘balance of a Brigade’ in the U.K., available to deploy if needed.”
A British soldier checks equipment on a tank during a break in a NATO exercise at Camp Adazi near Riga, Latvia, on Nov. 17, 2022. (Patrice Bergeron/The Canadian Press)
The U.K. also promised to “surge” forces throughout the year to conduct exercises, enhance its headquarters and provide support to the Estonian armed forces.
The problem — according to the Centre for Eastern Studies, a Warsaw-based analytics organization — is that the U.K., like Canada, doesn’t have enough troops to deploy without resorting to drastic measures like mobilization.
“At present — and for the foreseeable future — the British Army is unable to maintain a continuous rotational presence of an entire armoured brigade outside the U.K. without announcing mobilization,” says a Centre for Eastern Studies report entitled Expectations vs. Reality: NATO Brigades in the Baltic States.
Britain’s “3rd Division, intended for operations in the European theater, will only complete the process of restructuring and modernisation by 2030 … That is why London is unable to assign a specific brigade to Estonia, but can only offer individual subunits,” says the report.
How much army does Canada need?
The report goes on to say that “Canada also has the problem of deploying an entire brigade without prior mobilization, as its peacetime armed forces consist of only three mechanized brigades.”
Canada’s federal government is currently re-examining the country’s defence policy. One of the things being discussed as part of that process is the appropriate size of the Canadian military, given how the global security climate has changed in recent years.
The Germans, who lead the NATO battle group in Lithuania, are facing their own challenge — namely, their commitment of troops to the alliance’s standing crisis force.
“The German Army will not have one fully equipped brigade available until 2023, when it will be on duty with NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF),” says the Centre for Eastern Studies analysis.
“The Bundeswehr will only have one fully modernized division available by 2027, and a further two by 2031. It would thus only be able to permanently deploy one brigade in Lithuania on a rotational basis by around 2026.”
All of the current battle groups in the region are multinational formations. Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand has said other nations supporting the Canadian-led operation in Latvia are being consulted about what they might contribute.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Minister of Defence Anita Anand speak with Canadian troops deployed on Operation Reassurance as he visits the Adazi Military base in Adazi, Latvia, on March 8, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
The Canadian military’s operational commander, Vice-Admiral Bob Auchterlonie, said Canada is trying to boost the force in Latvia in tandem with its allies.
“We are working with the U.K. and the Germans on schedule, and we’re working with Latvia on a number of things required to actually get there,” Auchterlonie said in a recent interview with CBC News.
In recent months, Lithuania and Estonia in particular have complained about the plan adopted at the Madrid NATO Summit. They say they don’t want their supporting nations (Germany and the U.K.) to simply rush troops into the countries in the event of an emergency. They want real brigades stationed on their soil, not paper ones.
Auchterloine said Canada is also trying to decide how many troops should be stationed in Latvia on a rotational basis — and how many could be rushed in through what could be contested waters and airspace in the event of a conflict with Russia.
And there’s another problem, according to the Centre for Eastern Studies report.
“Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, none of the Baltic states is in a position to provide the infrastructure necessary to station such forces in the near future,” says the report. “The training grounds and barracks infrastructure is insufficient and needs to be significantly developed.”
Allies have time to prepare: Auchterlonie
Lithuania has said it will make all of the relevant investments by 2026. Estonia just finished negotiations in London last fall to make that happen.
Auchterlonie said Canada is facing the same space crunch in Latvia. Camp Adazi outside of Riga, where the battle group is housed, is “busting at the seams,” adding more tanks and troops is impossible at the moment and a brigade “simply won’t fit,” he said.
The allies, he added, have a bit of time.
“The Russians are fully committed to Ukraine. In terms of threat immediately, is there an immediate threat of Russia heading this way? I’d say that, you know, our allies in the Baltic agree that probably that threat is slightly diminished now,” Auchterlonie said.
If the crisis in the region escalates, he said, allies will want to make sure there are forces available.
“But it’s not going to happen today,” he added. “It’s not going to happen tomorrow.”
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
