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There are things not even the Bank of Canada can fix – Financial Post

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The economic stimulus debate got real in a hurry.

Statistics Canada on Feb. 28 reported that economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter — stall speed — as the trade wars choked exports and business investment.

That wouldn’t be such a worry if, by Canadian standards, all hell hadn’t broken loose since the end of last year.

Marc Garneau, federal transportation minister, this week said that if you lined up the freight cars idled by the various rail blockades this month, they would stretch from Ottawa to Montreal. Teck Resources Ltd. alluded to the Wet’suwet’en protesters and their sympathizers when it pulled its application to build an oilsands mine in northeastern Alberta. “It does kind of send a message to the outside people that Canada’s probably not the best place to invest,” Don Walker, chief executive of auto-parts maker Magna International Inc., told reporters in Toronto this week.

But, frankly, these developments are sideshows compared with the panic in global financial markets over COVID-19, which is on the verge of becoming a pandemic. Wall Street stock prices lost more than 15 per cent since touching a record a week ago, and the Canadian dollar lost more than two per cent of its value, dropping to about 74 U.S. cents, its lowest level since June.

Central bankers could probably look past the protests. It’s better that goods pile up due to confrontational politics than lack of demand. In that way, the economic impact of the First Nations blockades is no different than backlogs caused by weather and strikes: it’s lost output, but it’s temporary.

Teck’s decision is emblematic of deeper issues, one of which is the very real prospect that global oil prices have plateaued at levels that make digging for more bitumen an unprofitable proposition. Lower interest rates can’t do anything about such structural changes. StatsCan on Feb. 27 released a report that showed companies planned to increase capital spending by about three per cent in 2020, an uninspiring result, but one that was pulled down by oil and gas companies.  Remove that industry, and investment intentions were at a record high, according to Marc Pinsonneault, an economist at National Bank.

COVID-19 is something else entirely.

The global economy grew last year at its slowest pace since the financial crisis, and mass closures of factories, shops and airplane routes to limit the virus’s spread are dashing hopes of a rebound in 2020. Kevin Warsh, a former governor at the U.S. Federal Reserve, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Feb. 26 that the Fed should lead a coordinated stimulus effort by the world’s major central banks. “The window to contain the virus inside China has long since closed,” he said. “The window to mitigate its effects on the global economy remains open — but not for long.”

Yet the Bank of Korea left its benchmark rate unchanged at a meeting this week, and Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told the Financial Times that there isn’t enough evidence yet to say that the virus represents a long-lasting shock. Timothy Lane, a deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, had a similar assessment. “I would say at this point we don’t know enough about the transmission, we don’t know enough, even given the transmission, about how economic behaviour is going to be affected,” he said on Feb. 25.

Lane and his counterparts on the central bank’s Governing Council are scheduled to release a new statement on interest rates on March 4. Seven of the 10 academics and Bay Street economists on the C.D. Howe Institute’s shadow policy committee on Feb. 27 said the Bank of Canada should drop the overnight rate a quarter point to 1.5 per cent next week, the first time a majority of that group has recommended a cut since 2009. The “principal focus” of the group was the need to get ahead of the virus, the institute said in a statement.

The price of assets linked to short-term interest rates has dramatically shifted and now implies that investors anticipate an interest-rate cut next week, said Simon Harvey, an analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. “Next week’s meeting is too pre-emptive in our view, but that suddenly runs against the market consensus,” he said in an email.

It would be odd if the Bank of Canada showed more concern about the economic impact of the virus than its counterparts in South Korea and Europe, two places where COVID-19 has caused observable harm. Then again, events were evolving with unusual speed. At 2.30 p.m. on Feb. 28, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, issued a statement to say that the Fed “was closely monitoring” the situation and that “we will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

If Powell’s intervention fails to calm markets, the Bank of Canada could feel compelled to act. Canada’s central bank is capable of surprises: for example, it cut interest rates in January 2015 when no one was expecting it.

Coincidentally, Lane was the last policy-maker to speak before that decision, just as he was the choice to utter the central bank’s final words before entering its customary blackout period ahead of next week’s announcement.

Back in 2015, Lane might have let a clue slip into his remarks by stating that “we see important risks to Canada’s economic outlook stemming from the recent decline in the price of oil and other commodities.” This week, he said nothing about the economy in a speech on digital currencies. In an interview, he said he agreed that the rail blockades and COVID-19 were negatives, but added “we’ve also had economic data coming in which has been not too much out of line with what we had been predicting.”

The Bank of Canada’s updated forecast in January predicted the economy had slowed to 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.

However, the expected rebound to growth of 1.3 per cent in the first quarter probably isn’t going to happen. The headwind from the blockades will go away, but the economic effects of the virus could get worse. They might not worsen enough in a few days to justify an interest-rate cut immediately. But if central banks as a group decide that stimulus is necessary, the Bank of Canada will be among them.

• Email: kcarmichael@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

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File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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