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Inflation seems to be cooling — except at the grocery store. What’s going on?

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The overall inflation picture is improving for many line items on Canadians’ household budgets — with at least one notable exception.

Fresh data from Statistics Canada released Tuesday shows the price of food continues to soar, even as the headline inflation figure ticked down at the start of 2023.

The agency said food prices were up 10.4 per cent year-over-year in January — up slightly from December — while the rest of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) items decelerated to an annual pace of 5.9 per cent.

Food inflation has outpaced the general inflation rate for 13 months in a row. And while StatCan’s CPI tracks a representative basket of goods to show general trends in Canada, Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, says consumers might find their personal inflation rate is even higher if their diets are made up of the fresh foods and grains that are being hit particularly hard.

“I suspect a lot of people are saying, ‘Well, 10.4 per cent is unbelievable. Well, they’re right. Actually, it’s probably more than that,’” he says.

January’s grocery store prices were higher for meat (up 7.3 per cent), bakery products (up 15.5 per cent), dairy (up 12.4 per cent) and fresh vegetables (up 14.7 per cent).

There were some aisles of relief, however: lettuce, specifically, saw a 5.8 per cent price drop last month, as did oranges (down 1.8 per cent), pasta (down 0.5 per cent) and breakfast cereals (down 2.9 per cent). Fish — be it canned, fresh or frozen — also saw some modest price drops.

 

Why is food inflation still so high?

Statistics Canada pointed to a few global factors driving up food prices. When it comes to chicken, which saw costs rise 9.0 per cent year-over-year in January, the agency pointed to avian flu outbreaks, strong seasonal demand and continued supply chain issues as fuelling the price hikes.

Charlebois says nearly a year after the war in Ukraine began, the conflict is still stymying access to grains and other inputs from the region. Lingering supply chain constraints are making it more expensive to source and ship ingredients, driving up costs for producers, processors and retailers alike, he says.

“All of these things are just creating more sticker shock moments at the grocery store.”

But with production disruptions easing, Royal Bank of Canada Economist Nathan Janzen said food inflation should start to slow. He said the bank’s latest forecast shows it dipping below three per cent by the end of 2023.

“We are expecting growth in those prices to plateau and … and we are starting to see some signs of that,” he told The Canadian Press.

“Year-over-year price growth in grocery prices is still extremely high, but it’s been kind of flattish since last fall. What we’re seeing is probably still, at least in part, the impact of those earlier global supply chain disruptions, transportation disruptions, as well as spikes in agricultural commodity prices earlier last year and those shocks have unwound to an extent.”

Janzen cautioned that Canadians shouldn’t expect to pay less for their groceries in the near future.

“It’s easier for prices to go up than down,” he said. “We’re not expecting prices to decline, just to grow at a slower rate.”

Charlebois agrees that Canadians hoping for a break this month or next might be disappointed. A Feb. 1 hike to farm gate prices on dairy in Canada means these costs will likely continue to rise in future CPI reports, for example.

Canadians are in for a “rough winter,” Charlebois says, though he anticipates food inflation will return to more typical levels in the spring and summer months.

 

Calls grow for more grocer competition, transparency

A House of Commons committee studying inflation last week summoned the CEOs of Canada’s big three grocers — Empire Co. Ltd., Metro Inc. and Loblaw Co. Ltd. — to answer questions on the causes of food inflation.

Executives from all three companies have testified at past committee meetings focused on the rising cost of food — but not their CEOs.

“Those at the heads of these companies, where the buck stops, should at least have to answer questions around why their profits are so high and why their prices are so high,” NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said last week. “And why are they profiting off the backs of Canadians?”

In response to online criticism from consumers, Loblaw acknowledged recently that it has become the “face of food inflation,” but also claimed it makes less than $4 of profit on every $100 grocery bill.

If these CEOs do appear, Charlebois says the committee ought to focus its questioning on breaking down sales in their stores more clearly than they do in their financial statements. Currently, it’s difficult to break out whether revenue growth comes from food sales or cosmetics, clothing and pharmacy divisions, he notes.

“The information that we get is very sketchy and unclear,” Charlebois says. “I would actually try to dig as deep as possible into the data with CEOs in the room, or else it’s just a waste of time.”

Regardless of the CEOs’ answers on the causes of food inflation, Charlebois says Canadian consumers would benefit from more competition in the form of discount grocers such as Aldi and Lidl elsewhere in the world.

While Canadian grocers’ profit margins have stayed largely consistent through the current inflationary period, those margins are roughly double what’s reported from their U.S. grocery counterparts, Charlebois notes.

A Senate of Canada report delving into inflation released last week highlighted the need to increase competition in Canada in an effort to limit price pressures in the long term.

“We need more competition. We need a discount grocer in Canada,“ Charlebois says. “We need a market disruptor.”

— with files from The Canadian Press

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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