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Mexico’s Economy Grows More Than Forecast Amid Weakening Trend – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s economy grew slightly above a preliminary estimate in the fourth quarter, although activity is expected to keep slowing down in 2023 amid weakening US and domestic demand.

Latin America’s second-largest economy, heavily dependent upon profits generated by exports to the US, expanded 0.5% from the previous quarter, above the flash reading published last month, according to data released by the national statistics institute Friday. The result was also higher than the 0.4% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 

Declining exports to the US, Mexico’s biggest trading partner, and a drop in the peso-value of remittances has curbed domestic consumption even though total dollar inflows from abroad hit a record in 2022, Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Grupo Financiero Base, said.

“The peso strengthened, so there were fewer pesos for every dollar received, and inflation has been fairly high,” Siller said prior to publication of Friday’s report. “Consumption slowed precisely because of the lower purchasing power of the remittances and because of the fall in exports.”

In comparison to the previous year, the economy grew 3.1% in all of 2022, above the prior estimate of 3%. On a quarterly basis, the services sector gained 0.1%, agriculture expanded 2% and manufacturing rose 0.5%.

Sticky Inflation 

At the same time, sticky and above-target inflation has Mexico’s central bank engaged in a record rate-hiking campaign that’s also serving to slow economic growth.

A government report Thursday showed consumer prices rose 7.76% in the first two weeks of February from the same period a year earlier. That’s down from a third-quarter peak of 8.7% but still more than double the bank’s target of 3%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

What’s more, the minutes of the bank’s February meeting released Thursday explicitly signaled that additional tightening from the current 11% can be expected, further squeezing output and demand in Latin America’s second-biggest economy.

Read More: Banxico Cites High Core Inflation to Justify Rate Surprise

“Given that inflation is strong, that Banxico’s policy has been to raise rates for over a year and a half, and that since the middle of last year it already began to be restrictive, it makes sense that the demand in the private sector is starting to diminish,” said Joan Enric Domene Camacho, an economist at Oxford Economics.

Economists in a Citibanamex survey published this week raised their 2023 growth forecast to 1.10%, up from their prior 1.00% prediction. They also forecast that the central bank’s key rate would be 11.25% by the end of the year. Some economists predict that the bank could wait to cut rates until 2024.

–With assistance from Rafael Gayol.

(Recasts lead, updates with data and analysis starting in fifth paragraph.)

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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