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Ousted From Oil, Saudi Minister Can Make a Mark in Investing – Financial Post

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By Ellen R. Wald

(Bloomberg Opinion) — After a week of drama in global financial markets, it’s worth pointing out an intriguing development in Saudi Arabia that warrants watching. 

In a surprise move on Tuesday, the kingdom’s ruler King Salman announced the return to government of former oil minister Khalid Al-Falih, who will become head of a newly established ministry of investment. Just six months ago, Al-Falih was unceremoniously dismissed, his removal seen as a “fall from grace” – specifically the good graces of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was reportedly displeased with Al-Falih’s slow and cautious approach to the Vision 2030 Saudi economic reform plan and the related IPO of state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco. Now, Al-Falih has been placed in charge of a ministry with an undefined mission and unclear responsibilities – but also much potential for helping Saudi Arabia become the welcoming partner for foreign businesses that it says it wants to be.

The choice of Al-Falih – who was at various times also the CEO of Aramco, the Minister of Health, a top adviser to the crown prince and a board member of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund – indicates that King Salman is hoping the new Ministry of Investment will be more than just a rubber stamp for the existing investment authorities. With extensive experience in the upper echelons of Saudi government and business, Al-Falih has the skills, knowledge and connections to mold it into something more powerful. 

The Saudi government’s investments are currently made by several authorities, most notably by the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority (SAMA) and the country’s sovereign wealth fund, otherwise known as the Public Investment Fund (PIF). The PIF controls roughly $300 billion with the intention to grow its size to $2 trillion. SAMA, along with functioning as Saudi Arabia’s central bank also manages a sovereign wealth fund with $494 billion in assets, as of 2018. SAMA, unlike the PIF, has taken a typically conservative approach and avoided public attention.

Right now, the Saudi PIF — which is central to the kingdom’s efforts to diversify the economy away from oil — is overseen by Yasir Al-Rumayyan, a close adviser to the crown prince. Investments include some high-profile technology holdings such as Uber Technologies Inc., as well as a $400 million stake in Uber founder Travis Kalanick’s CloudKitchens startup. The PIF sold almost all of its shares in Tesla Inc. right before a massive rally and put $45 billion into SoftBank Group’s first Vision Fund, whose losing bets include WeWork. Al-Rumayyan and the PIF also raised eyebrows recently by tapping Carla DiBello, an entrepeneur and socialite friend of Kim Kardashian West, as an adviser on the fund’s proposed acquisition of Premier League soccer team Newcastle United.

With the appointment of Al-Falih and the creation of the new Ministry of Investment, Saudi Arabia has a chance to heighten its credibility in the business and investment world. In Saudi Arabia’s bureaucracy, the influence and strength of a ministry is largely determined by the ambitions and assertiveness of those who run it. Ministries have long been run as fiefdoms, according to Middle East scholar Steffen Hertog. If Al-Falih exerts influence over the various existing investment authorities in the kingdom, he could exercise some needed oversight.

King Salman could have picked anyone to run this new Ministry of Investment. Choosing Al-Falih, especially after he was let go for reportedly pushing back against the crown prince’s investment agenda, appears to be sending a message that the King expects a change to be made. It was Al-Falih who King Salman tapped to fix the Ministry of Health in just one year after an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

Foreign businesses generally have a good impression of Al-Falih, as both a bureaucrat and a businessman. But they shouldn’t take his appointment alone as reason to jump into deals with the Saudi government. Global businesses that are considering opportunities in the kingdom and partnerships with Saudi government investments will need to wait and see what Al-Falih does with this new position. Will he employ the full weight of his authority and try to rein in and oversee the kingdom’s investment authorities? The potential is there, but will he be able to assert himself and his ideas? And if he faces pushback, will he be able to prevail in a power struggle?

To contact the author of this story: Ellen R. Wald at ewald@tvslconsulting.com

Bloomberg.com

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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