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Alberta expecting another gusher in budget ahead of provincial election

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Alberta is scheduled to introduce its budget Tuesday — the last before a spring provincial election — with political observers wondering what the province will do with all its billions of extra petrodollars.

“Any budget that’s leading into an election is always one that contains quite a few goodies,” said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.

“Combine that with a government with significantly higher resource royalties than planned, and you have a lot of scope for big announcements.”

Finance Minister Travis Toews, in his four years in the post, has tabled budgets that began with multibillion-dollar deficits and recently spotlighted multibillion-dollar surpluses due to rebounding oil and gas revenues.

The province said in its mid-year forecast that it’s expected to finish the current fiscal year, which concludes at the end of March, with a $12.3-billion surplus on the strength of high oil prices and oilsands operations reaching the higher post-payout stage of production.

Tombe said if the benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil price stays robust at US$80 barrel in the coming years, the province could once again, by decade’s end, eradicate its $80-billion taxpayer-supported debt.

WTI is currently trading just under $80 a barrel.

“I suspect we’ll see less windfall (in the budget) because spending will almost surely grow,” said Tombe.

Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government has already announced and begun implementing a $2.8 billion program of direct payments and tax cuts to help Albertans deal with inflation.

In recent days, Health Minister Jason Copping has promised $158 million in new spending to recruit health staff and $243 million to expand and improve primary care.

Smith said funding for mental health and addiction is to rise from $275 million, up from $87 million in 2019.

Toews also promised more money to fund growing student enrolment from kindergarten to Grade 12. And Advanced Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides said there will be a two per cent cap on tuition starting in the 2024-25 school year.

Tombe said the key question to ask is what does Alberta do as it reaches yet another fork in the road on how it saves its bounty, given that past boom and bust cycles have seen the province spend heavily in good times then be forced to run staggeringly high deficits in bad times?

Economists, business groups and think tanks have suggested multiple options: recreate a buffer fund, put the money into the nest Heritage Savings Trust Fund, pay down the debt or use it to cover off more tax cuts to make Alberta more inviting to investors, potential newcomers and businesses.

Tombe, who favours debt paydown given current high interest rates, said there should be a plan, whatever the route taken.

“The last time we saw a detailed forward-looking plan for dealing with resource revenues was 2015 under (former premier) Jim Prentice,” he said.

“It will be interesting how detailed (this surplus plan) is,” said Tombe.

“It’s one thing to hand wave about using (surpluses) wisely. It’s another to actually have concrete, formula-driven approaches to handling resource revenues.”

Voters go to the polls May 29, and recent surveys suggest Smith’s UCP is in a tight race with Rachel Notley’s Opposition NDP.

Political scientist Lori Williams said she expects short-term inflation aid in the budget won’t be as important, because voters want to know which party can be trusted to look after families in the long-term while addressing core concerns over health care.

“Since the money is going to be there no matter who wins the next election, it may come down to a contest over vision and leadership,” said Williams, with Mount Royal University in Calgary.

“Money being spent (in the budget) doesn’t necessarily move the needle one way or the other.”

Williams noted the affordability programs and holidays on provincial tax at the gas pumps is set to end in the short term.

“I think a lot of people will be wondering what happens at the end of May?” she said.

“We can talk about diversification of the economy, we can talk about how well the economy is doing, but the reality is people are still struggling with inflation. The prices at the grocery store are shocking.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 26, 2023.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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