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Oil Prices Climb But Remain On Course For A Fourth Consecutive Monthly Loss – OilPrice.com

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Oil Prices On Course For A Fourth Consecutive Monthly Loss | OilPrice.com




Michael Kern

Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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Oil prices were up early on Tuesday morning, but both WTI and Brent remain on course for a fourth consecutive monthly loss, although there are some bullish catalysts looming in March.

Investor Alert: This month’s Intelligent Investor will be landing in the inbox of Global Energy Alert subscribers this morning, make sure you’re one of them! This investment deep dive compares two of the oilfield services giants and the new tech that might make one of them a buy. Don’t miss out on this latest research, and try out our premium Global Energy Alert service for less than a cup of coffee per week.

Oil prices

Rig

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Chart of the Week

Drought

– After Europe suffered its worst drought in 500 years last summer, early indications point towards the same scenario (if not worse) happening once again in 2023.   

– France’s nuclear woes might continue as water available to cool nuclear reactors is in short supply, whilst the country’s hydropower generation drops to its lowest level since 1976.

– Rhine water levels, Germany’s key waterway, are set to fall below the one-meter mark in the first days of March already as precipitation is a quarter of its usual levels and snow coverage in the Alps remains low.

– Germany’s Rhine problem might be particularly bullish for inland diesel prices as the river is used to haul diesel cargoes further into inland Europe and if tankers can only be laden half-full then costs will soar.  

Market Movers

– UK major BP (NYSE:BP) and US heavyweight Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have signed memoranda of understanding with Chinese refiner Yulong Petrochemical to supply its 400,000 b/d refinery in Shandong.  

– US shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) was reportedly interested in acquiring smaller rival Range Resources (NYSE:RRC), but the shale company refuted the Bloomberg report. 

– The world’s largest chemicals producer BASF (ETR:BAS) will cut 2,600 jobs across Europe, halt share buybacks, and close one of its ammonia plants in Germany as rising costs jeopardize its earnings. 

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Oil prices were up slightly on Tuesday morning but remained on course for a fourth consecutive monthly loss. There are some potentially bullish catalysts looming this week, with the market preparing for new Chinese economic data (especially industrial activity readings) and U.S. crude inventories. WTI might see some additional support should U.S. oil stocks reverse the trend after eight consecutive weeks of builds, although preliminary data still seems to suggest a minor inventory increase.

US Natural Gas Bounces Back from Trough. Forecasts for colder weather and a stronger pull from U.S. liquefaction facilities (at 12.8 Bcf per day) have pushed up Henry Hub natural gas futures to a one-month high of $2.7 per mmBtu, easing fears that low prices would trigger output cuts. 

EU Approves 10th Sanctions Package. Following three unsuccessful attempts the European Union approved late Friday a 10th package of Russia sanctions including export restrictions on dual-use goods, SWIFT bans on several private banks, and the blacklisting of individuals Brussels says are Russian propagandists. 

Russia Halts Oil Exports to Poland. Poland’s national oil company PKN Orlen (WSE:PKN) announced Russia halted its pipeline oil supplies to the Eastern European country over the weekend, adding that Russia only accounted for 10% of supply and it would tap into other sources for its refinery needs. 

French Court to Rule on Uganda Pipeline Case. The Paris civil court is set to rule on a lawsuit filed by NGO Friends of the Earth, accusing French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) of widespread land expropriation and drilling in environmentally fragile areas in Uganda, potentially derailing the $3.5 billion East African Crude Oil pipeline. 

Ecuador Production Halved by Landslides. Ecuador’s oil production has halved to 240,000 b/d as a deadly landslide in the Amazonian province of Napo damaged the country’s two main pipelines, the 360,000 b/d Sote and 450,000 b/d OCP, and forced producers to halt production.  

Brazil to Levy Fuel Taxes Again. In a big win for the country’s finance ministry and ethanol producers, Brazil will resume the collection of federal taxes on transportation fuels in a reversal of a Bolsonaro-era waiver in a bid to generate $5.6 billion of additional revenues to the federal budget. 

US Hikes Aluminium Tariffs on Russia. In a boost to US smelters such as Alcoa (NYSE:AA), the Biden administration introduced sanctions on Russia’s aluminum exports into the United States and slapped a 200% ad valorem tariff starting from March 10, decrying the increase in US imports in both 2021 and 2022.

China Probes Lithium Producers. The Chinese government launched an investigation into environmental infringements of lithium producers in the province of Jiangxi, with potential disruptions in lepidolite mining threatening between 8% and 13% of global supply. 

Things Get Worse for Mexican Oil. Mexico’s national oil company, Pemex, has had a tough week. As it attempts to fix its downstream system after three refinery fires last week, the company has now posted a $9.4 billion loss for the fourth quarter of 2022. Its debt has now spiked to $107.7 billion.

Probe Finds Oil Majors Ignored Seismic Risks in the Netherlands. A Dutch parliamentary inquiry found energy majors Shell (LON:SHEL) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) repeatedly ignored the risks of gas production at the Netherlands’ Groningen field, leading to tremors that have damaged thousands of buildings. 

Colombia Rebels Ramp Up Pipeline Attacks. Colombian rebels have once again bombed the country’s main crude export conduit, the 220,000 b/d Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline as ceasefire talks between the government and the ELN group have so far yielded no results. 

France Tries to Build Pro-Nuclear Alliance. France will convene a meeting of 12 EU countries on the sidelines of the upcoming energy ministers meeting in Stockholm as Paris seeks to build a pro-nuclear bloc to counter the likes of Germany and Spain that opposes labeling nuclear as “green”.

The Chinese Love of Coal Continues Unabated. China approved the construction of 106 GW of new coal-fired power plants last year, the highest number since 2015 and four times higher than in 2021, with the speed of project approvals speeding up to only a couple of months.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

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File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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