Last week, Abacus Data surveyed 700 adults living in Alberta and asked them several questions about their views and intentions as the provincial election approaches.
Here are the key takeaways from this research:
1 – The UCP and NDP are tied province-wide as undecideds increase.
35% of Albertans would vote UCP (down 5), 35% would vote NDP (down 3) and 5% would vote for the Alberta Party. 22% say they are undecided, up 6-points since February.
2- The UCP and NDP are tied among committed respondents – 45% to 45%.
The UCP vote share among committed voters is down 2 while the NDP vote share is consistent with our survey last month.
3 – The NDP and UCP are statistically tied in Calgary, the NDP is ahead by 19-points in Edmonton, while the UCP leads by 14-points outside of the two largest cities.
4- The NDP lead among those under 45 and women while the UCP is ahead among those 45 and old and men.
5 – There’s been a big increase in former UCP supporters who now say they are undecided. Among 2019 UCP voters, 65% say they would vote UCP today, 12% would vote NDP, and 20% are currently undecided.
6 – The percentage of Reluctant UCP voters – those who voted UCP in 2019 but today say they are supporting another party or are undecided – is up 3-points while those who are loyal to the UCP are down 3 percentage points.
7 – Impressions of Danielle Smith are largely unchanged from last month. 37% have a positive view of the Premier while 40% have a negative impression. For NDP leader Rachel Notley, her net favourable has declined. 39% have a favourable view of the NDP leader (down 4) while her negatives are up 2 to 39%.
THE UPSHOT
Since last month, the political landscape in Alberta hasn’t changed much but we do see a noticeable shift back towards the undecided category for many past UCP voters.
The NDP vote share is holding steady but we continue to see volatility among past UCP voters. Those Reluctant UCPers will decide the outcome of the provincial election.
Don’t miss any of our research and analysis, sign up for our weekly newsletter.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 700 Alberta adults from March 2 to 4, 2023.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
