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Trudeau may have saved his political skin, at the cost of public confidence in the next election – The Globe and Mail

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Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in a press conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Feb. 17BLAIR GABLE/Reuters

Of course, Justin Trudeau’s decision to kick the question of Chinese interference in Canadian elections over to parliamentary committees and a yet-to-be named rapporteur is inadequate.

But it might save the Prime Minister’s political skin – at the high cost of undermining public confidence in the next federal election.

Under measures Mr. Trudeau announced Monday, two committees will examine in secret evidence of election interference by Beijing. A rapporteur will decide whether more needs to be done.

The difficulty, says Fen Hampson, Chancellor’s Professor at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, is that any final report may not arrive in time to ensure the integrity of the next election.

“The problem with kicking the can down the road is that it doesn’t address the fundamental problem that Canadians are not confident, as a result of the storm over this issue, that the next election is going to be free of foreign interference,” he said in an interview.

Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, senior fellow at the Institute for Science, Society and Policy at University of Ottawa, agrees. “The Chinese need to be held accountable,” for illegally interfering in Canadian elections, if that is the case, she told me. By putting off any reports and recommendations for months and possibly years, “we’re giving China a pass for what they’ve done,” she said.

All of this could be prevented if Mr. Trudeau convened a public inquiry with, say, a one-year time frame to investigate allegations of Chinese interference and to recommend how elections can be better protected in the future.

But such an inquiry would be bound to ask whether the Prime Minister knew of the Chinese activity and did nothing because his party stood to benefit.

The answer might hold Mr. Trudeau blameless. But for the Prime Minister, the question itself is politically intolerable.

Will Mr. Trudeau’s efforts at deflection work? Certainly they have worked in the past. Whether it was during the SNC-Lavalin affair or the WE Charity controversy or any of the other imbroglios, he has been able to wiggle his way out by appointing this, referring the matter to that, or pointing the finger at someone else.

The Prime Minister is further aided and abetted by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who continues to prop up this minority government. And Mr. Trudeau has also benefited from problems within the Conservative Party.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has chosen not to punish three MPs who met with a far-right member of the European Parliament, further tainting him as someone who turns a blind eye to extremists within his own political base.

Liberals will comfort themselves with the thought that Mr. Trudeau, if he chooses to stay on as leader, will have plenty of ammunition as he seeks to discredit Mr. Poilievre in the eyes of the voters before and during the next election campaign.

But Mr. Trudeau’s political future remains at risk from the possibility of future leaks. Those leaks are now a greater threat to his survival than anything said or done by opposition politicians. If people within the public service or security services or elsewhere believe that this government is willfully covering up misdeeds committed by Beijing in this country, there could be more front-page stories.

Even before the first election-interference stories appeared in The Globe and Mail and on Global News, Liberals in Ottawa were debating among themselves whether it would be better to fight the next election with Mr. Trudeau as leader or for the party to choose someone else.

The general feeling was that, even if the Liberals lost, Mr. Trudeau would be able to “save the furniture” – to hold the party’s base in Quebec and in downtown Toronto and Vancouver.

Before Mr. Trudeau became leader, the Liberals were broke, faction-ridden and no longer even the official opposition in the House. In many ways, the Liberal Party of Canada is really just the Justin Trudeau Party. What it will look like without him might not be pretty.

But if these leaks continue, then the question will arise of how badly the Prime Minister has been damaged, and how much furniture might in fact be lost. If the leaks continue, it’s 50-50 whether he stays or goes.

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NDP and B.C. Conservatives locked in tight battle after rain-drenched election day

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VANCOUVER – Predictions of a close election were holding true in British Columbia on Saturday, with early returns showing the New Democrats and the B.C. Conservatives locked in a tight battle.

Both NDP Leader David Eby and Conservative Leader John Rustad retained their seats, while Green Leader Sonia Furstenau lost to the NDP’s Grace Lore after switching ridings to Victoria-Beacon Hill.

However, the Greens retained their place in the legislature after Rob Botterell won in Saanich North and the Islands, previously occupied by party colleague Adam Olsen, who did not seek re-election.

It was a rain-drenched election day in much of the province.

Voters braved high winds and torrential downpours brought by an atmospheric river weather system that forced closures of several polling stations due to power outages.

Residents faced a choice for the next government that would have seemed unthinkable just a few months ago, between the incumbent New Democrats led by Eby and Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, who received less than two per cent of the vote last election

Among the winners were the NDP’s Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon in Delta North and Attorney General Niki Sharma in Vancouver-Hastings, as well as the Conservatives Bruce Banman in Abbotsford South and Brent Chapman in Surrey South.

Chapman had been heavily criticized during the campaign for an old social media post that called Palestinian children “inbred” and “time bombs.”

Results came in quickly, as promised by Elections BC, with electronic vote tabulation being used provincewide for the first time.

The election authority expected the count would be “substantially complete” by 9 p.m., one hour after the close of polls.

Six new seats have been added since the last provincial election, and to win a majority, a party must secure 47 seats in the 93-seat legislature.

There had already been a big turnout before election day on Saturday, with more than a million advance votes cast, representing more than 28 per cent of valid voters and smashing the previous record for early polling.

The wild weather on election day was appropriate for such a tumultuous campaign.

Once considered a fringe player in provincial politics, the B.C. Conservatives stand on the brink of forming government or becoming the official Opposition.

Rustad’s unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the Conservatives as leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, now called BC United — all in just two years.

Rustad shared a photo on social media Saturday showing himself smiling and walking with his wife at a voting station, with a message saying, “This is the first time Kim and I have voted for the Conservative Party of BC!”

Eby, who voted earlier in the week, posted a message on social media Saturday telling voters to “grab an umbrella and stay safe.”

Two voting sites in Cariboo-Chilcotin in the B.C. Interior and one in Maple Ridge in the Lower Mainland were closed due to power cuts, Elections BC said, while several sites in Kamloops, Langley and Port Moody, as well as on Hornby, Denman and Mayne islands, were temporarily shut but reopened by mid-afternoon.

Some former BC United MLAs running as Independents were defeated, with Karin Kirkpatrick, Dan Davies, Coralee Oakes and Tom Shypitka all losing to Conservatives.

Kirkpatrick had said in a statement before the results came in that her campaign had been in touch with Elections BC about the risk of weather-related disruptions, and was told that voting tabulation machines have battery power for four hours in the event of an outage.

— With files from Brenna Owen

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Breakingnews: B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad elected in his riding

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VANDERHOOF, B.C. – British Columbia Conservative Leader John Rustad has been re-elected in his riding of Nechako Lakes.

Rustad was kicked out of the Opposition BC United Party for his support on social media of an outspoken climate change critic in 2022, and last year was acclaimed as the B.C. Conservative leader.

Buoyed by the BC United party suspending its campaign, and the popularity of Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, Rustad led his party into contention in the provincial election.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Early tally neck and neck in rain-drenched British Columbia election

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VANCOUVER – Predictions of a close election were holding true in British Columbia on Saturday, with early returns showing the New Democrats and the B.C. Conservatives neck and neck.

Conservative Leader John Rustad was elected in Nechako Lakes, and 20 minutes after polls closed, his party was elected or leading in 46 ridings, with the NDP elected or leading in 45.

Among the early winners were the NDP’s Ravi Kahlon in Delta North and Niki Sharma in Vancouver-Hastings, as well as the Conservatives’ Bruce Banman in Abbotsford South.

It was a rain-drenched election day in much of the province.

Voters braved high winds and torrential downpours brought by an atmospheric river weather system that forced closures of several polling stations due to power outages.

Residents faced a choice for the next government that would have seemed unthinkable just a few months ago, between the incumbent New Democrats led by David Eby and Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, who received less than two per cent of the vote last election

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau has acknowledged her party won’t win, but she’s hoping to retain a presence in the legislature, where the party currently has two members.

Elections BC has said results are expected quickly, with electronic vote tabulation being used provincewide for the first time.

The election authority expected most votes to be counted by about 8:30 p.m., and that the count would be “substantially complete” within another half-hour.

Six new seats have been added since the last provincial election, and to win a majority, a party must secure 47 seats in the 93-seat legislature.

There had already been a big turnout before election day on Saturday, with more than a million advance votes cast, representing more than 28 per cent of valid voters and smashing the previous record for early polling.

The wild weather on election day was appropriate for such a tumultuous campaign.

Once considered a fringe player in provincial politics, the B.C. Conservatives stand on the brink of forming government or becoming the official Opposition.

Rustad’s unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the Conservatives as leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, now called BC United — all in just two years.

Rustad shared a photo on social media Saturday showing himself smiling and walking with his wife at a voting station, with a message saying, “This is the first time Kim and I have voted for the Conservative Party of BC!”

Eby, who voted earlier in the week, posted a message on social media Saturday telling voters to “grab an umbrella and stay safe.”

Two voting sites in Cariboo-Chilcotin in the B.C. Interior and one in Maple Ridge in the Lower Mainland were closed due to power cuts, Elections BC said, while several sites in Kamloops, Langley and Port Moody, as well as on Hornby, Denman and Mayne islands, were temporarily shut but reopened by mid-afternoon.

Karin Kirkpatrick, who is running for re-election as an Independent in West Vancouver-Capilano, said in a statement that her campaign had been in touch with Elections BC about the risk of weather-related disruptions, and was told that voting tabulation machines have battery power for four hours in the event of an outage.

West Vancouver was one of the hardest hit areas for flooding, and Kirkpatrick later said on social media that her campaign had been told that voters who couldn’t get to a location to cast their ballot because of the extreme weather could vote through Elections BC by phone.

— With files from Brenna Owen

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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