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The jobs report revealed an unexpected outcome, but it's not what you think – Kitco NEWS

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Today’s jobs report for February came in well over forecasts by economists that were polled by various news services. The polls of economists predicted that there would be a total of between 200,000 to 225,000 new jobs added last month. This would have been a decent number, but extremely tepid when compared to the 517,000 new jobs added to payrolls during January. Chairman Powell addressed the House and Senate earlier this week in which he attributed the strong numbers of January’s jobs report as the outcome of un-seasonally warm weather.

Today the US Labor Department showed that job growth continues to convey strong economic growth in the United States. The jobs report certainly reflected that, revealing that the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 311,000.

Today’s jobs report was exceedingly important with profound implications for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the rate hike they will announce at the conclusion on March 22. It was widely believed by many analysts including myself that if the report showed that jobs came in strongly above expectations or forecasts it would give the Federal Reserve the necessary ammunition or data to become even more aggressive in implementing a 50-bps (1/2%) rate hike which would take the Federal Reserve’s current terminal rate from between 4 ½% – 4 ¾% to between 5% – 5 ¼%.

This more aggressive rate hike was a modification of their former policy to slow the pace of rate hikes which was evident in the fact that after four consecutive rate hikes of ¾% last year in December the Fed reduced the magnitude of each rate hike just slightly to ½% then followed its  “slowing the pace philosophy” with a rate hike of ¼% in January.

However, recent reports such as last month’s jobs report coming in over 500,000 and inflation reports revealed that certain sectors continue to run hot with high inflationary pressures. The primary sector that had been troublesome to the Federal Reserve is the services industry. This changed the narrative of the Federal Reserve members. At first, it was only the more hawkish faction including Mary Daly and James Bullard which both recommended a more aggressive stance containing a 50-bps rate hike this month. It was not long after that the more conservative faction of Federal Reserve officials moved into that camp and this report was the line in the sand that would either seal the deal of ½% rate hike or cause them to abandon it.

While market participants had braced themselves for an unexpected result with a robust jobs report which Fed officials warned would lead to a larger interest rate hike, the unexpected outcome was that it now is most likely that the Fed will only raise rates by ¼%. Truly an unexpected outcome but not because of the number of new jobs added to payroll last month but rather a change in the unemployment rate that no one had anticipated. Forecasts were looking for a 0.1% reduction from 3.5% in January to 3.4% in February. While the economists were correct in that the net change to the unemployment numbers which came in at 0.1% however, it was an uptick rather than a downtick. The February unemployment numbers rose to 3.6% above the January unemployment numbers that came in at 3.5%.

This took gold futures strongly higher with the most active August contract currently fixed at $1872.70 resulting from today’s gain of $38.10 or 2.08%. Gold opened at $1835, traded to a low of $1830 and a high of $1874.30. On a technical basis, today’s close took gold prices right to the 50-day simple moving average which is currently fixed at $1872.70.

With the jobs report behind us we now have a weekend to decompress until Monday morning when we will once again focus on the next key and critical report the CPI, the Consumer Price Index for February.

Let us leave that topic for Monday have a great weekend.

 Wishing you as always good trading,

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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