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Li Qiang: New premier tries to boost confidence in Chinese economy

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang speaks in his first Q&A session after he took up his new roleReuters

China’s new Premier Li Qiang has sought to restore confidence in the country’s economy in his first public address since taking up the role.

He said that a growth target set last week – 5% – would “not be easy” to meet, but added that the “economy is stabilising and picking up again”.

The world’s second-largest economy is still reeling from the effects of Beijing’s zero-Covid policy.

Challenges also loom because of a declining population and job losses.

Investors’ confidence too has taken a hit in recent years as China’s leader Xi Jinping consolidated his power, cracking down on private businesses, from tech companies to the tutoring industry.

In an attempt to allay those concerns, Mr Li said: “During a period last year, there was some incorrect opinion on the development of the private economy which worried some entrepreneurs… The environment for the private economy would get better and better and there would be more space for it.”

Mr Li also struck a more conciliatory tone towards the US: “China and the United States should co-operate, and must co-operate. When China and the US work together, there is much we can achieve. Encirclement and suppression are not advantageous for anyone.”

As party chief of Shanghai, he oversaw one of the harshest zero-Covid lockdowns that battered China’s economic hub, leaving many without food. Party officials often went above and beyond to implement what was seen as Mr Xi’s signature policy, which was reversed in December following widespread protests.

Although Mr Li’s appointment was near certain after the Party Congress in October, he was formally appointed to the role only during the Two Sessions, the annual meetings of China’s legislature and top political advisory body that ended on Monday.

As premier, he is now tasked with managing China’s economy and his elevation has surprised many – unlike almost all his predecessors, he has had no experience working in the central government. But he is known as a loyalist of Mr Xi’s, who worked closely with him in Zhejiang – one of China’s richest provinces – between 2002 and 2007.

“Running the State Council machinery will require some adjustments, but he likely had some ‘practice’ during zero-Covid since Shanghai, as the largest city in China, had to co-ordinate closely with State Council agencies and he even took over the Covid leading group for months now,” said Victor Shih, a professor at University of California San Diego.

“On issues that Xi cares about, there will be very little room for flexibility. However he [Li] may have greater ability to persuade Xi.”

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s principal economist Yue Su noted Mr Li did not use the opportunity to propose new economic measures.

“This means Li Qiang has limited ownership in policy decisions at least during his first year in the office and the Politburo meeting will still be the key to assessing China’s policy direction.”

She added that investors’ confidence would not come back immediately due to a lack of “institutional measures” – even if Mr Li looks like a “pro-business premier” who has a good track record in Zhejiang and Shanghai.

Mr Xi, the most powerful leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, also secured a historic third presidential term during the Two Sessions last week. This too was widely expected after the two-term limit on presidential term was removed five years ago.

“This is my third term holding such a high office as the country’s president. The trust of the people is the greatest motivation for me to move forward and a heavy responsibility on my shoulders,” Mr Xi said on Monday.

“Security is the bedrock of development, while stability is a prerequisite for prosperity.

“We must fully promote the modernisation of national defence and the armed forces, and build the people’s armed forces into a Great Wall of Steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security and development interests.”

Additional reporting by BBC Chinese’s Yan Chen

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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