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Inflation easing, but pressure to help struggling Canadians

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OTTAWA –

Canada’s inflation rate likely took another dip last month, but with many Canadians still struggling with the cost of living, the federal government is facing pressure to deliver more help in the upcoming budget.

Statistics Canada is set to release its February consumer price index report on Tuesday, giving its most up-to-date reading on inflation ahead of the federal government’s budget on March 28.

Desjardins and RBC are both forecasting the inflation rate fell to 5.4 per cent last month, down from 5.9 per cent in January.

But even as inflation eases, the federal government has signalled the budget will include affordability measures to help Canadians still challenged by the cost-of-living.

Desjardins’ chief economist Jimmy Jean said all eyes are on Ottawa to balance affordability priorities with fiscal restraint.

“One of the things we obviously are going to watch is what governments put forward to help with cost of living, all with the constraint that it must not add fuel to the fire (of inflation),” Jean said.

The Bank of Canada has been laser-focused on bringing inflation back down to its two per cent target. Its aggressive rate hike cycle over the last year is starting to slow the economy by forcing people and businesses to pull back on spending.

As the economy slows, economists worry excessive or untargeted measures by the federal government could work against the central bank’s efforts and force it to raise interest rates even higher.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has said repeatedly that she’s committed to fiscal restraint and ensuring the federal government doesn’t make the Bank of Canada’s job harder.

But the Liberals are also facing pressure from New Democrats to continue providing support for low-income Canadians who are hardest hit by inflation.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he wants to see the government extend the six-month boost to the GST rebate, introduced last fall, which temporarily doubled the amount people received.

At a news conference Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t weigh in on whether his government would extend the rebate, but said the budget will include affordability measures.

“In our budget, we are going to be putting forward measures that will directly help Canadians,” Trudeau said.

Inflation has become a top political and economic concern in the country after a significant runup in prices last year, driven in part by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and mangled supply chains.

But since peaking at 8.1 per cent last summer, Canada’s inflation rate has been steadily declining as global pressures on inflation ease and high interest rates weigh on the economy.

Jean said lower gas prices last month likely drove the headline inflation rate down further. Other components of the CPI, like food prices, probably didn’t ease by much.

Grocery prices in January were a staggering 11.4 per cent higher than they were a year ago.

RBC economist Carrie Freestone said businesses, including grocers, have been able to pass on the extra costs they’re facing from suppliers to consumers. But grocery prices are still expected to ease as lower agricultural commodity prices feed through the supply chain.

“It’s just seems to be taking a bit of time,” she said.

The Bank of Canada is currently holding its key interest rate steady at 4.5 per cent, hoping inflation will ease without the need for more rate hikes. It’s forecasting inflation will fall to about three per cent by mid-year.

“As long as inflation continues to trend lower as we expect … (the Bank of Canada) will probably stay on the sidelines,” Freestone said.For workers who haven’t seen their wages keep up with inflation, the rapid rise has been especially punishing. But as inflation slows, the gap between the two is narrowing.

In February, average hourly wages were up 5.4 per cent, matching forecasts for inflation.

The Bank of Canada has said persistently strong wage growth will make getting back to the two per cent inflation target difficult.

For workers, Jean said the narrowing gap between inflation and wage growth is good news, but doesn’t make up for what they’ve lost.

“We’re not talking about making up for the last two years of wage growth not keeping up with inflation,” Jean said. “We’re just stopping the hemorrhage here.”

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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