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What China’s baby woes mean for its economic ambitions

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A small boy in traditional outfit for Chinese New Year in Beijing.Getty Images

Crystal, who wished to withhold her real name, is a 26-year-old living in Beijing. Unlike most women from previous generations in China, she is unmarried and currently faces no pressure to tie the knot.

When asked why that is, she laughs: “I think it’s because my family members are either never married or divorced.”

It appears to be a common sentiment among young urban women in China. A 2021 survey by China’s Communist Youth League of almost 3,000 people between the ages of 18 and 26, found that more than 40% of young women living in cities did not plan to marry – compared to less than 25% of men. This is in part due to rising childcare costs and the ghosts of China’s one-child policy.

“Having just one child or no children has become the social norm in China,” says Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist in obstetrics and gynaecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and a prominent critic of the one-child policy.

“The economy, social environment, education and almost everything else relates back to the one-child policy,” he adds.

For Beijing, this is a worrying trend because China’s population is declining. It’s birth rate has been slowing for years but in 2022 its population fell for the first time in 60 years.

That’s bad news for the world’s second-largest economy, where the workforce is already shrinking and an ageing population is beginning to put pressure on the state’s welfare services.

China’s working age population – those between the ages of 16 and 59 – currently stands at about 875 million. They account for a little more than 60% of the country’s people.

But the figure is expected to fall further, by another 35 million, over the next five years, according to an official estimate by the government in 2021.

“China’s demographic structure in 2018 was similar to that of Japan’s in 1992,” Mr Yi said. “And China’s [demographic structure] in 2040 will be similar to Japan’s in 2020.”

Until last year, many economists had assumed China’s growth would surpass that of the US by the end of the decade – a move which would cap the country’s extraordinary economic ascent.

But Mr Yi says that is now looking unlikely, adding “By 2031-2035, China will be doing worse than the US on all demographic metrics, and in terms of economic growth”.

The average age in China is now 38. But as its population ages and birth rates plummet further, there are concerns that China’s workforce will eventually be unable to support those who have already retired.

The retirement age for men in China is 60 and for women, it is 55. Currently, those above 60 make up almost a fifth of the population. In Japan, which has one of the fastest ageing populations in the world, nearly a third of the people are 65 or older.

 

An elderly man sews a handmade wallet at an alley in Beijing on October 6, 2022.

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“Population ageing is not unique to China but the strain on China’s pension system is a lot more acute,” says Louise Loo, a senior economist with Oxford Economics.

She says the number of retirees has already exceeded the number of contributors, leading to a drop in contributions to the pension fund since 2014.

The country’s pension fund is administered at a provincial level and on a pay-as-you-work basis – that is, contributions from the workforce pay the retirees’ pensions.

So Beijing, aware of these cracks in its system, created a fund in 2018 to shift pension pay-outs from richer provinces like Guangdong to those facing a deficit. But in 2019 a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that because of its shrinking workforce, the country’s main pension fund would be depleted by 2035.

Then in 2022 China launched its first private pension scheme in 36 cities, allowing individuals to open retirement accounts at banks to buy pension products like mutual funds.

But Ms Loo says it’s unclear if many Chinese people, who typically invest savings in more traditional avenues such as property, would turn instead to private pension funds.

These problems are not unique to China – Japan and South Korea both have a greying population and a shrinking workforce.

Mr Yi noted that Beijing is poised to replicate Tokyo’s policies to lower parenting costs but, he adds, “China, which is ‘getting old before it gets rich’ does not even have the financial resources to fully follow Japan’s path.”

And this is not the only thing troubling Beijing. There’s also a growing online youth movement to “lie flat”. It calls on workers to reject the struggle for career success and promises release from the pressures of life and work in a fast-paced capitalist society. Add to the mix a high youth unemployment rate, which peaked last July when 20% of those aged between 15 and 24 were jobless.

As Mr Yi puts it: “The labour force is the flour and the pension system is the skill of making bread. Without enough flour, it is impossible to make enough bread, even with the best bread-making skills.”

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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