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How can investors spot the next SVB?

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SVB’s share price collapsed in a single day and shareholders were wiped out, providing a nasty example of the biggest risk in holding an individual stock.Trifonenko/iStockPhoto / Getty Images

If you didn’t own shares in Silicon Valley Bank prior to its failure last week, you dodged a bullet. But can you dodge the next one?

The bank’s share price collapsed in a single day and shareholders were wiped out, providing a nasty example of the biggest risk in holding an individual stock: It can die. Fast.

There were plenty of reasons for the SVB collapse, but they may not have been obvious to the small investor – or any investor for that matter – before the crisis exploded.

SVB was a lender to the venture capital ecosystem, and tech startups have struggled over the past year as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in a battle against inflation. This focus on a single sector stands out from more diversified lenders.

The bank also had an odd approach to deposits: It invested the money in long-duration securities, including long-term mortgage-backed securities. When these assets fell in value as the Fed raised interest rates, a wave of problems emerged.

As depositors withdrew money, SVB was forced to sell bonds at a loss to raise cash to meet redemptions. It then tried to issue additional shares to shore up capital. A full-fledged bank run followed, exacerbated by the fact that about 90 per cent of its deposits were uninsured – higher than a US$250,000 maximum for federal deposit insurance. That is a ratio well above that of most other banks – and, well, SVB is now no more.

These red flags may have put off some investors who knew their way around bank balance sheets, were well aware of SVB’s strong connection to the volatile tech sector or were just plain worried about the deteriorating economic climate.

Last year, as interest rates shot higher and technology companies floundered, SVB’s share price declined from about US$733 at the start of 2022 to about US$230 in December. The slide marked a dramatic shift from gains of 75 per cent in 2021, and it meant that a lot of investors were bailing out.

At the same time, short sellers – nimble investors who bet that a stock will decline – became active in SVB. A year ago, in March, the number of shares sold short in comparison with the total share count, was just 1.4 per cent, according to Nasdaq. But this short interest jumped to 6.7 per cent by the end of 2022.

But were any of these actions flashing a warning sign that SVB was heading for failure? Maybe not.

Despite the diminished share price, the collective wisdom of the market valued SVB earlier this month, prior to the collapse, at nearly US$16-billion, based on the value of outstanding shares. The share price actually rallied in January amid bets that the Fed was nearly finished raising rates.

There was also SVB’s impressive track record to consider.

It had been around for decades, surviving the bursting of the tech-stock bubble in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis. And it had found a niche among startups and tech entrepreneurs that delivered enviable deposit growth when times were good.

“When others left the Valley in 2001/2002, SVB was the bedrock and played an instrumental role in the thousands of successful tech startups seen over the years,” Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note.

There were plenty of signals, then, tempting investors who like to buy stocks when they are cheap and unpopular, hoping for a big rebound. But that’s what makes SVB, and stocks like it, so dangerous.

The best lesson here for risk-conscious investors: Focus primarily on baskets of stocks that spread out the risk of any one of them blowing up. Yes, you’ll likely be saddled with a lot of underperformers, but they probably won’t harm your portfolio in any meaningful way, and you’ll get the winners too.

We live in a golden age in which exchange-traded funds offer exposure to just about any sector, strategy or index you can think of – from value stocks, growth stocks, banks and real estate investment trusts all the way up to emerging markets, developed markets and the S&P 500 Index.

If small banks are your thing, there’s even the iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF, for example. It’s not doing well this year, but it’s no SVB.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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