Game Day 67: Oilers at Stars
Edmonton Oilers arrive in the Lone Star State today on something of a high, having beaten a pair of tough Central Division squads in Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators in the past 72 hours. Tonight they’ll face a third straight Central Division opponent, the Dallas Stars.
It’ll be a tough test on a back-to-back, facing one of the NHL’s best defensive squads. The Stars rank second in the league in goal prevention, and there’s little doubt their checkers will be on high alert after the Oilers beat Pekka Rinne 8 times before calling off the dogs down the stretch in a convincing 8-3 win.
The Stars own starter, Ben Bishop, is unavailable to go tonight, but they won’t miss a beat with backup Anton Khudobin who has a long history of tormenting the Oilers (6-2-1, 2.01, .935 including a comeback win in a relief role in the clubs’ one meeting in Edmonton earlier this season). In 2019-20 his .930 save percentage in 28 appearances leads all netminders who have played >10 GP.
As for the Oilers, they have been short-staffed for a while with a series of injuries and a key suspension, but in recent days that’s been changing. Connor McDavid returned from a 6-game absence due to a quad injury and has already racked up 13 points in 5 games. On the flanks Zack Kassian finished his 7-game suspension and found a new role on the third line. Kailer Yamamoto missed three games with an ankle issue, but returned vs. Nashville. All three scored goals in that game, even as they were overshadowed by a four-goal outing by Leon Draisaitl.
In the meantime, GM Ken Holland bulked up at the trade deadline, bringing in a pair of scoring wingers in Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis while moving out one in Sam Gagner.
Now comes word that James Neal is ready to return.
With 19 snipes on the season, Neal is the highest goal-scorer among natural wingers on the club, this despite going 0-for-January and then missing all of February with a foot injury. Now he’s ready to chip in on the March to the playoffs, but where exactly does he fit in? There’s no obvious answer.
Oilers’ DYN-amite Line of Draisaitl between Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is firing on all cylinders. Yamamoto was paired with Draisaitl immediately upon his recall from the AHL after the holiday roster freeze, with RNH joining them one game later. All three guys have been on fire over those 25 games, with Drai posting a stunning 21-25-46, +12, Nuge a dazzling 12-24-36, +10 and Yam a splendid 10-13-23, +17 in 22 games. Among them they have 29 goals at even strength and another 14 on the powerplay.
McDavid’s line has been more fluid, with Connor himself missing 6 games but connecting for 10-21-31, +3 in the 19 contests he did play. Since his return he has gotten time with the newcomers Ennis and Athanasiou, with Ennis having stuck for now and Josh Archibald riding shotgun on the right side. Last night McDavid set up three goals at even strength, with each goal scorer (Archibald, Draisaitl, Kassian) belonging to a different unit. Perhaps there is space on his flank for Neal, though at this point they have little history of clicking at 5v5. In 207 minutes together Neal has lit the lamp just once and scored a pair of secondary assists, just 0.87 points per 60 minutes. That’s barely better than Neal’s overall rate of 0.84 P/60, a frankly lousy figure for an offensive winger. Among the 394 NHL forwards who have played 300 minutes, Neal ranks a lowly 367th.
Then there’s the third line, currently consisting of Riley Sheahan between Athanasiou and Kassian. Both wingers have recently been bumped off the McDavid line, but it’s clear that Dave Tippett still wants both to play regular minutes. Sheahan is nobody’s idea of a playmaking centre in any event.
Then there’s the fourth line of Gaetan Haas between Jujhar Khaira and Alex Chiasson. Khaira has struggled this season everywhere but the penalty kill, where he has excelled on the #2 unit with RNH. His recent run of games has been decent. Meanwhile Chiasson is a right-handed version of Neal, with lousy production numbers at even strength but good results on the powerplay. On nights when both are available, Tippett has taken to using both in the net front role and swapping them out mid-powerplay while double-shifting his star forwards. Neal has the better individual stats with 12 powerplay goals, but the unit has been more productive with Chiasson on the edge of the blue paint, where he has proven particularly adept at goalie screens and puck recovery.
Bear in mind that this is a powerplay that has gone 3-for-3 over these past 2 games, needing just 2:12 combined. So it’s not like there’s something broken that needs fixing.
Worth noting how all of the PP regulars have on-ice Goals For results running about 50% higher than Expected Goals, which are shown in the far right column. Is that a matter of a unit that is “riding the percentages” and due for a correction, or one that creates superior scoring chances for snipers with superior shooting talent? All three of Draisaitl (16), Neal (12) and McDavid (11) rank in the league’s top ten in powerplay goals, while the team ranks first in the NHL in PPG with 57 and in conversion rate at 29.7%, far ahead of second place Boston’s 25.5%.
The first obvious choice Patrick Russell came out of the line-up last night to make room for Yamamoto. Who’s next? If it were based strictly on performance, Athanasiou might be pressbox-bound. The noted speedster has shown little sign of his noted speed, raising whispers that he may have arrived from Detroit at something below 100%. He did manage a goal and an assist in his Oilers debut but precious little since, other than a brutal turnover that led directly to a goal against last night. But unless he is nursing an actual injury, it seems likely the coach will give him a more extended opportunity to find his way with his new club. One thing’s for sure, Ken Holland didn’t part with a pair of second-round picks (plus Gagner) for a guy to sit games out. But he may find himself with new linemates.
Tonight’s lineup
Still awaiting word. We will update this post when it comes down.
At a guess, Neal comes in for Chiasson to play a similar role. Hard to imagine him getting the bump to the McDavid line after five weeks on the shelf, but powerplay duty awaits, assuming the Oilers get an actual powerplay that is. Tippett hinted there might be another short-term injury that might force his hand.
On the back end Kris Russell left the Nashville game with 15 minutes to play after blocking a shot in the mid-section. It was just his second game back from his own one-month absence with concussion. Seems likely the veteran might sit out the back-to-back with William Lagesson set to slot in. Oscar Klefbom is on the trip but not quite ready to go.
Mikko Koskinen will get the start, marking the eighth consecutive time Tippett has split the starts between his two veteran netminders in a back-to-back situation. The Oilers are 6-1-0 in the second games, with the one loss having come in Las Vegas last week in Koskinen’s most recent start. His last appearance in Dallas was a different story, as the towering Finn starred with 34 saves in a 2-1 Edmonton win in mid-December.
The visitors will likely need more of that tonight, as they aren’t likely to light up the tight-checking Stars the way they did the Preds last night.
Recently at the Cult of Hockey
LEAVINS: Player grades as Draisaitl dominates Preds again
STAPLES: Yamamoto returns to the lineup
STAPLES: Oilers among the winners of NHL’s trade deadline
