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Yield Curve Gets Ugly, 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 1% for First Time Ever, 30-Year at Record Low, on Rising Inflation – WOLF STREET

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Ready for another shock-and-awe panic-cut by the Fed? Last time the Fed panic-cut was in 2007/2008, and look what happened to stocks.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Spooked by the Fed’s shock-and-awe surprise 50-basis-point rate cut, the already frazzled markets did a job today. Gold surged nearly 3%. The three major stock indices all swooned nearly 3%. And Treasury yields plunged across the board.

The 10-year Treasury yield plunged from 1.13% pre-announcement to an intraday low of 0.935%, and closed officially at 1.02%. When the yield drops, it means that bond prices rise. In late trading the yield fell below 1% again, and is currently at 0.997% reflected in the chart (data via Investing.com):

The one-month yield – in a sign that this was a surprise act – plunged 34 basis points, most of it instantly, from 1.45% just before the shock-and-awe rate-cut announcement to 1.11% at the close, which put it in the middle of the Fed’s new federal-funds target range between 1.0% and 1.25%.

The three-month Treasury yield plunged from 1.20% just before the announcement to 0.95%, already pricing in another rate cut well before its maturity in 90 days.

The two-year yield plunged to 0.72%, the lowest point on today’s yield curve. The 30-year yield ticked down 2 basis points to 1.64%, a record low.

The chart below shows the increasingly ugly yield curve yesterday at the close (black line) and today at the close (red line), for each maturity, from the one-month yield on the left, to the 30-year yield on the right:

At this point, nearly the entire yield curve is below our most doctored and repressed US inflation gauge, the Fed’s preferred “core PCE,” which languishes at 1.6%. And the entire yield curve is far below the Cleveland Fed’s median CPI, which has surged to 2.9%.

The Median CPI is based on the data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) but removes the extremes of price increases and price decreases, that are often temporary, to reveal underlying inflation trends:

Generally speaking, plunging Treasury yields, while inflation is rising, are not a sign of confidence, other than confidence in yields falling even further due to fears of more mayhem coming at the markets which would make the Fed react even more vigorously by cutting rates even further.

Investors who bought Treasuries before the rate cut and sold afterwards made a very quick buck, especially if it was a leveraged bet.

But lower yields are bad news for fixed-income investors of all kinds that have to replace maturing securities with new low-yielding securities. These fixed-income products amount to over $40 trillion in the US, including Treasury securities, bank savings products, investment-grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, asset-backed securities, and the like.

Much of this stuff now yields below the rate of inflation as measured by median CPI, meaning that interest income doesn’t even compensate investors for the loss of purchasing power of their principal due to inflation. New buyers of these securities get their cash flows from interest payments confiscated by the Fed’s monetary policy.

So they can invest in the still immensely overpriced stock market, and count on meager and fragile dividend yields, or they can stand on the edge of a cliff and look down and see if they have enough of a death wish to buy Ford shares for their 8% dividend yield. Dividends can get cut any time, no sweat. And those fixed-income investors chasing yield among dividends have a good chance of losing a lot of principal a lot more quickly than the damage inflation might do.

By the stock market’s reaction today to the Fed’s shock-and-awe surprise 50-basis point rate cut – it should have caused stocks to soar, but caused them to plunge nearly 3% instead – it would seem that another such shock-and-awe event signals even more panic inside the Fed, and who knows how the stock market might react when it sees the Fed panicking.

There is historic precedent: Most recently, the Fed started cutting its policy rates in late 2007 and was slashing them wholesale in big panic-cuts in 2008, seeing whatever it saw. Then Lehman blew up, and by then, all heck had broken lose in the stock market.

Were they disappointed the Fed didn’t print antibodies? Read….  Stocks Sag as Fed Cures Coronavirus by Cutting Rates ½ Percentage Point

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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