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Here’s Why Oil Prices Should Go Higher

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On February 11, I predicted that Coronavirus would crush oil prices. Prices collapsed on February 20. Today, prices have reversed and WTI price is $2.00 higher on expectations of an OPEC+ production cut and central bank stimulus. Rising and falling sentiment about Coronavirus will be the framework for the rest of 2020.

As of last Friday, WTI prices had fallen 27% and Brent had fallen 15% since late December. Prices increased on Monday, March 2 but the oil price is being devalued despite today’s gains. Most of this is because of lower demand expectations and disruption of supply chains from Coronavirus (Covid-19).

Hope versus reality will be the manic pattern for 2020. The optimistic rebound of price during the week ending February 14 was short-lived and turned to capitulation the following week. WTI price dropped $8.62 and Brent fell $7.98 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Hope versus reality will be the manic pattern for 2020. Brent price rose +1.38 (+2.7%) on March 2 on expectation of OPEC+ cuts & bank stimulus but price fell -$8.79 (-15%) after February 20. Source: Quandl and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

On March 2, Brent price rose by $1.38 (2.7%) on expectation of OPEC+ production cuts and central bank stimulus plans but longer market players aren’t buying false hope. Brent 12-month spreads fell 94% deeper into contango (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Brent longer market players aren’t buying false hope of production cuts and bank stimulus. Price rose 2.7% on Monday, March 2 but 12-month spreads fell $0.18 (-94%) to -$0.37. Source: Quandl and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Markets seem to be reflecting two contrasting themes . Collapsing prices are recovering based on hope but spreads are more faithfully reflecting market fundamentals namely, that demand destruction cannot be fixed with bandaids. The worst effects of the Coronavirus on oil markets persist although may not be quite as serious as originally thought in early February.

As consensus builds toward Coronavirus apocalypse, short-term oil traders can easily find counter-parties to take the other side of a bet that prices will probably improve over the term of a contract. This pushes prompt contract prices down. Meanwhile, longer-term players may be able to see their way clear to an upturn in prices later in 2020 or in 2021 but for now, they recognize that neither OPEC+ nor central bankers can make the economic effects of Coronavirus magically disappear.

While the news about Coronavirus and its effect on oil markets is bad, there are some hopeful elements that may explain how markets are reacting now. Figure 3 shows that the number of cases in China appears to be leveling off and that people who have recovered is increasing. The scale of the chart under-states the expansion of cases outside of China. Still, the data suggests that fears of an apocalyptic pandemic may be exaggerated.

Figure 3. COVID-19 cases and recoveries. Source: Johns Hopkins and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

At the same time, Chinese data is suspect and confirmed cases are rising quickly outside China. Some people are returning to work in China but baseball stadiums are empty in Japan and Italy is looking a lot like the China of two weeks ago with quarantines and growing concerns.

Negative world demand growth is likely for 2020 (Figure 4). This optimistically assumes that only demand from China is affected and that a decrease of 200 million barrels for the first quarter is followed by recovery in the rest of 2020.

Figure 4. Negative world liquids demand growth is possible in 2020 (-0.3 mmb/d): -2.2 mmb/d in the first quarter of 2020 and -0.3 in the second quarter followed by weak but positive demand growth in the second half of 2020.

Source: OPEC, EIA, Vitol and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

That would result in the first quarter of negative demand growth since the 2008 Financial Collapse and the first year of negative demand growth since 2009. The “knock-on” effects of broken supply chains and demand destruction outside of China would result in an even more pessimistic, if more probable, forecast. In either case, it is unlikely that oil prices will recover substantially from current levels in 2020 or that Coronavirus will become a distant memory.

The near term is anyone’s guess at the moment but it is probable that the panic will be worse than the pandemic. I can imagine a scenario in which prices continue to fall from current levels but start to stabilize.

Comparative inventory suggests than the current WTI front-month price of about $47 is under-valued by at least $8 per barrel. I don’t believe that sentiment alone is responsible for this. Markets are assuming a substantial inventory build once lower demand begins to affect shipments at least for U.S. stocks. The price is still under-valued because inventory build will probably be more gradual than price anticipates.

I can also imagine a scenario in which panic drags near-term prices into the $30 to $40 range. That would probably not be sustainable for very long.

Whatever the short term brings, WTI prices should stabilize in the low- to mid-$50 range sooner than later, and move slowly higher as the emerging effect of Coronavirus on oil markets and the economy becomes clearer. Once this happens, prices will rise and fall on daily news that is either more or less hopeful about the impact of Coronavirus on demand and supply chains. That period of flux may last for 18 months or longer.

By Art Berman Source link

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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