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Bank of Canada move will put pressure on Ottawa for fiscal response – Financial Post

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A Bank of Canada rate cut won’t be enough to mitigate the economic fallout of the coronavirus, turning all eyes to Ottawa for measures to stabilize jittery markets and restore confidence.

A surprise move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate by 50 basis points Tuesday makes a parallel move by Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz all but certain, analysts say. The Fed cut will see the target rate for federal funds fall to between 1 per cent and 1.25 per cent.

Poloz is widely expected to cut Canada’s current benchmark interest rate of 1.75 per cent by 25 to 50 basis points on Wednesday.

But while lower rates can ease lending and encourage consumers to spend, they cannot address supply chain disruptions or calm nerves about the spread of the virus — making a fiscal response from Ottawa all the more likely as countries scramble to keep their economies moving, analysts say.

“We are dealing with something that has nothing to do with monetary policy,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. “In this environment, fiscal policy is more effective so I will not be surprised if we see some changes there and a compromise on the deficit as a result.”

Those changes could take the form of accelerated capital expenditure writeoffs or direct spending on infrastructure to stimulate the economy, Tal said.

“Whatever they do they have to make sure it’s reversible, and tax cuts are hard to reverse,” he added. “So I think we’ll see direct spending. But the pressure will be on fiscal policy to carry the day until this situation stabilizes.”

That could be a tall order as Finance Minister Bill Morneau endeavours to soothe concerns about a widening budget deficit, already running higher than initial estimates. Morneau will table his budget in the upcoming weeks amid slowing domestic and global growth and now, deepening concerns about the coronavirus.

The pressure will be on fiscal policy to carry the day until this situation stabilizes

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist, CIBC World Markets

On Tuesday, Morneau said the government has the fiscal room to move if needed.

Morneau took part in a Group of Seven conference call call on the global health crisis in the morning, which stopped short of spelling out a specific policy response. His office later signalLed a willingness to spend more if circumstances demand it. “Our strong fiscal position continues to give us the necessary leverage to respond,” press secretary Maeva Proteau said by email.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, left the door open to targeted government aid.

“There will be impacts on Canadian businesses, on entrepreneurs, and we will always look for ways to minimize that impact and perhaps give help where help is needed,” the prime minister said in Halifax.

Beata Caranci, chief economist for TD Bank Group, said some sectors could already be suffering. “The tourism sector is an obvious one. The first point of contact for pain is in that sector.”

The Fed’s emergency cut to the U.S. benchmark borrowing rate is the first since 2008 financial crisis, when regulators moved to stabilize tanking markets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank.

Though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday’s cut was prompted by increased risks from the coronavirus to the country’s record economic expansion, the move nevertheless came as a surprise — particularly since the impacts of the virus are only starting to be felt in the U.S. economy.

There will be impacts on Canadian businesses, on entrepreneurs, and we will always look for ways to minimize that impact and perhaps give help where help is needed

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Regulators may have felt the need to act pre-emptively given the hefty economic toll the illness has taken elsewhere, Caranci said. China, for instance, is expected to have the first recorded economic contraction in its history in the first quarter, while Italy, the nexus of the European outbreak, will likely also see its economy continue to contract, she said.

“There’s a high degree of uncertainty but what the Fed can do is observe what’s been happening off its shores and see that it’s having quite strong impacts,” Caranci said. “They’re probably presuming if it’s happening there, why would we presume we’d be completely isolated from that?”

Whatever the reason, the Fed’s step will make it particularly difficult for the Bank of Canada to justify leaving its own rate untouched. Canada’s economic growth has been weaker than in the U.S., it has been hit by more “idiosyncratic shocks” such as rail disruptions, and the country already has the highest policy rate of any advanced economy, Caranci noted.

“To my mind, the only question is whether they cut by 25 or 50 basis points,” she said. “At this point the market has priced in higher odds that they move by 50 basis points so now they have to justify, why they won’t take that larger step. What makes Canada different?”

The answer to that question comes back to Canada’s high level of household debt, she added. Due to soaring house prices, Canadians now carry debt of $1.76 for every dollar in disposable income they have – the highest of all G7 countries. Some fear low interest rates could further fuel that ratio.

For his part, Tal expects concerns about the virus to offset a boom in housing and associated debt as a result of an interest rate cut.

“Interest rates are already low to start with and getting into the market is a big responsibility when people are concerned about the long-term impact of the virus,” he said. “I do expect more creative moves from all governments to ease those concerns.”

Meantime, the pressure will be on Ottawa to show it is taking steps to contain the crisis, Caranci said.

“The best thing they can do is telegraph to people and financial markets that they actually do have a plan and it’s not like they’re being reactive,” she said. “They have something ready to go, it’s just a matter of whether they need it or not. That takes the pressure off the central banks to address something they can only partially address.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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