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Here’s when markets expect the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates

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The Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at the 15-year high 4.50 per cent until the end of 2023, before starting to cut rates at the start of next year, according to a median of market participants in the central bank’s survey released on Monday.

The bank’s survey of market participants, the second iteration of the poll first released in February, showed a median of the participants forecasting interest rates dropping to 3.0 per cent by the end of 2024.

Market participants in the first survey released in February had said rates would fall to 4.0 per cent by the end of the year.

A median of 26 participants predicted a 0.1 per cent contraction of gross domestic product at the end of 2023, compared with a 0.4 per cent decline forecast in the last survey.

The participants, surveyed from March 9 to 23, cited weaker housing market and tightening of financial conditions among top risks that could curtail Canadian growth.

The bank raised interest rates eight consecutive times through January in an effort to cool high inflation that peaked at a four decade high last year.

The bank has since kept rates steady at two meetings, in part because Governor Tiff Macklem has said the goal is to slow growth, but avoid a recession.

Annual inflation rate eased to 4.3 per cent in March, but is still more than double the bank’s two per cent target. The bank expects to hit its inflation target by the end of next year.

The median forecast for annual inflation is 2.7 per cent at the end of the year, compared with a previous estimate of 2.9 per cent.

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End of Manitoba legislature session includes replacement-worker ban, machete rules

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WINNIPEG – Manitoba politicians are expected to pass several bills into law before the likely end of legislature session this evening.

The NDP government, with a solid majority of seats, is getting its omnibus budget bill through.

It enacts tax changes outlined in the spring budget, but also includes unrelated items, such as a ban on replacement workers during labour disputes.

The bill would also make it easier for workers to unionize, and would boost rebates for political campaign expenses.

Another bill expected to pass this evening would place new restrictions on the sale of machetes, in an attempt to crack down on crime.

Among the bills that are not expected to pass this session is one making it harder for landlords to raise rents above the inflation rate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Father charged with second-degree murder in infant’s death: police

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A Richmond Hill, Ont., man has been charged with second-degree murder in the death of his seven-week-old infant earlier this year.

York Regional Police say they were contacted by the York Children’s Aid Society about a child who had been taken to a hospital in Toronto on Jan. 15.

They say the baby had “significant injuries” that could not be explained by the parents.

The infant died three days later.

Police say the baby’s father, 30, was charged with second-degree murder on Oct. 23.

Anyone with more information on the case is urged to contact investigators.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Ontario fast-tracking several bills with little or no debate

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TORONTO – Ontario is pushing through several bills with little or no debate, which the government house leader says is due to a short legislative sitting.

The government has significantly reduced debate and committee time on the proposed law that would force municipalities to seek permission to install bike lanes when they would remove a car lane.

It also passed the fall economic statement that contains legislation to send out $200 cheques to taxpayers with reduced debating time.

The province tabled a bill Wednesday afternoon that would extend the per-vote subsidy program, which funnels money to political parties, until 2027.

That bill passed third reading Thursday morning with no debate and is awaiting royal assent.

Government House Leader Steve Clark did not answer a question about whether the province is speeding up passage of the bills in order to have an election in the spring, which Premier Doug Ford has not ruled out.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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