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The Ice-Cream Theory of Presidential Politics

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One of the most revealing statements of the 2020 presidential campaign wasn’t uttered by the candidates. It came instead from a former Republican congressman. “It’s difficult to attack vanilla,” griped Florida’s Carlos Curbelo, lamenting the failure of GOP attacks against then-candidate Joe Biden. Curbelo probably intended to deride the former vice president as milquetoast. But he inadvertently landed on the key to Biden’s success: No one hates vanilla. Biden’s flavor of politics is not everyone’s favorite, but it’s one that most people are happy to accept.

Biden won in 2020 by 7 million votes, but the criticisms of his candidacy have not changed. To the president’s detractors, many of them Democrats, he is old, uninspired, and bland. He lacks the dynamism needed to excite younger voters, and his resistance to radical change fails to meet the moment. But this critique fundamentally misunderstands Biden’s appeal: He wins because he’s banal, not in spite of it. That’s because his brand of politics is the perfect counter to the acquired taste of today’s Trump-led Republican Party.

Consider the contrast between Biden and his opposition: For the 2022 midterms, GOP primary voters nominated a parade of Trump-endorsed conspiracy theorists who denied the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Say what you will about these candidates and their views, they did excite the base and certainly weren’t boring. Yet nearly all of them lost, ceding competitive swing states in the process. It turned out that what energized Republican partisans repelled the independent voters the party needed to win elections.

Biden embodies the opposite approach. He excels at being an acceptable candidate to the maximum number of general-election voters, even as he inspires only middling enthusiasm among his party’s loudest voices. This quiet cultivation of consensus—rather than crowd-pleasing bombast—is how Biden won the White House. He is vanilla in a world of pistachio and rocky road, unobjectionable to most people and unlikely to trigger any allergies. This is often more about Biden’s affect than his aspirations: Even when he is pursuing ambitious policies, he tends to cast them in common-sensical rather than revolutionary terms.

Pundits and activists have never warmed to Biden, but that’s because they are connoisseurs forever seeking fresh flavors. Biden understands that most voters do not live and breathe politics, and that they prize reliability over novelty. Many Americans just want an unobtrusive president who won’t demand their constant attention, especially after years of experiencing the opposite.

Being basic has its benefits: According to The Cook Political Report, polls show that Biden overwhelmingly wins voters who “somewhat disapprove” of him, whereas Trump loses the same set. For the dissatisfied, the president is a safe bet; his predecessor is a turnoff. In the frustrated words of the Fox News host Jesse Watters, “There’s not a ‘Hate Biden’ vote that’s out there. You know, when Trump’s on the ballot, there’s that ‘Hate Trump’ Democrat vote? People just don’t feel the same passion against the guy.” It’s hard to get excited about vanilla, but it’s even harder to get angry about it.

Biden’s intentionally inoffensive formula is superior to Trump’s abrasive one, as the 2020 and 2022 elections demonstrated. And yet, with Trump currently on track to secure the 2024 GOP nomination, Republicans are poised to repeat their mistakes. A recent CBS survey found that 75 percent of GOP primary voters who back Trump are doing so because they believe that “he actually won in 2020.” By contrast, polls have repeatedly found that large majorities of Americans believe that Trump lost. The former president’s loyalists are seeking to serve exactly what the broader electorate is not willing to consume.

This is where Biden’s anodyne affect becomes an asset rather than a liability, especially today. By taking conventional but popular positions that resonate with both Democrats and independents, Biden makes himself the dependable choice. And by receding into the background and letting his opponent do the talking, Biden ensures that the coming campaign cycle centers on the other side’s profoundly unpopular positions. When the only alternative to vanilla is rum raisin with a side of insurrection, the unassuming starts to look quite attractive.

Because Trump is peddling a product that is toxic to a majority of voters, there’s no need for a flashy candidate to compete with him for the spotlight. Biden doesn’t want to drown out Trump’s wild conspiracies and petty cruelties—he wants independent voters to hear them and remember why most of them rejected Trump twice at the ballot box. In a very real way, Trump is the Biden campaign’s best surrogate.

In recent months, the likely Republican nominee has been arrested, gone on trial for civil damages in a rape case, and snatched a reporter’s phone after the journalist asked him questions he didn’t like. Trump regularly makes extreme statements that thrill his supporters but alienate more moderate voters. At a recent conservative conference, he declared, “The sinister forces trying to kill America have done everything they can to stop me, to silence you, and to turn this nation into a socialist dumping ground for criminals, junkies, Marxists, thugs, radicals, and dangerous refugees that no other country wants.” The longer the campaign continues, the more Trump will remind audiences why they dislike him. He is, in other words, the anti-Biden.

None of this means the president won’t lose to Trump in a 2024 rematch, which polls project to be perilously close. But it helps explain why Biden continues to outperform expectations, despite obvious shortcomings such as his age, propensity for gaffes, and history of failed presidential campaigns. It’s understandable that certain Democrats want someone with more flavor to be their standard-bearer, but the trick to being a consensus candidate is to avoid giving voters reasons not to vote for you. That’s Biden’s specialty—and Trump’s weakness.

 

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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