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Like 2009, this real estate dip might not last

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Canadian real estate is kind of like Chucky in Child’s Play. No matter how you try to kill him, the little rascal keeps coming back.

The housing balloon, bubble or whatever you want to call it, finally popped last year, but next Monday, we could see its comeback accelerate. That’s when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases its April resale data. If you’re a real estate watcher, you’ll want to pop some corn for this one. April national home sales and prices could shift into high gear.

McLister: This week’s lowest fixed and variable mortgage rates in Canada

If that happens, sweat beads might form on those home shoppers feeling urgency. National average home values had never had a 25-per-cent correction – until this year. If you blinked, you probably missed it. That’s a problem for the countless Canadians planning to buy during this dip. So what do you do if you’re one of them and the boat has already left the dock?

If you’re well-qualified and can afford to buy, swim to it

In Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s latest mortgage consumer survey, 26 per cent of homeowners purchased sooner than they expected to beat rising rates. Another 5 per cent had to delay their purchases because of rate-related affordability concerns.

It’s tough to say, but a corresponding number could be similarly motivated to buy before prices rise further to avoid higher monthly payments, higher down payments and higher lifetime interest costs.

As of March 31, average home prices were already 12 per cent off the bottom, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. That boosted theoretical mortgage payments by $376 a month (almost 12 per cent) for folks buying the average home with the leading five-year fixed rate and the minimum down payment.

If average prices rise another 5 per cent, that will tack on an additional $174 a month – or 5 per cent. Other things equal, the more that buyers flood into markets with scant listings, the more that payment risk will be a thing.

The historic drop in values and the prospect of falling rates, which could boost demand further, is why FOMO, that cliché acronym meaning fear of missing out, is making a comeback.

Is FOMO merely a siren waiting to lure in buyers with a short-term price spike – to mortgage payments many can’t afford? Or is it a valuable instinct that’ll save this year’s buyers from paying even more, as it did in summer of 2020?

I’m no Soothsayer Sally, but one thing is clear. Canada’s short-term to medium-term housing fundamentals are legit. Record household formation, deficient housing supply, income growth, improving sentiment, and the prospect of falling rates are brewing a bullish concoction.

Rising unemployment and stricter mortgage rules will dilute some of that buying interest – thank you, banking regulator – but demand should remain potent enough to keep values at least going sideways till the economic downturn passes.

I hate to say this, with the Bank of Canada trying to deflate the economy and mortgage regulators trying to bolster financial stability, but real estate proponents have a saying: The best time to buy is any time. Well, to those buyers who are well-qualified and risk-tolerant, it is now officially any time.

Waiting for rates to drop

Rate cut cycles are like floating down the Niagara River in a barrel. Everything’s nice and calm and then kerplop, you go off the edge.

The time is approaching when recession or some global event pushes mortgage rates off the edge. We just don’t know how long rates will drift until we get there.

At the moment, fixed rates are consolidating near multiweek lows. Consolidation like this usually precedes a big move in one direction or the other. I’ll take the under.

In the MortgageLogic.news rate survey, the only tweaks to leading rates this week were a few five- to 10-basis-point changes to default-insured mortgage offerings. (A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.)

The lowest uninsured rates saw zero changes since my last report.

Regarding variable rates, markets still expect the Bank of Canada’s next move to be a cut. Accurate or not, derivatives pricing in the bond market still implies the first prime rate drop will come by December.

Rates are as of May 11, 2023, from providers that advertise rates online and lend in at least nine provinces. Insured rates apply to those buying with less than a 20 per cent down payment, or those switching a pre-existing insured mortgage to a new lender. Uninsured rates apply to refinances and purchases over $1-million and may include applicable lender rate premiums. For providers whose rates vary by province, their highest rate is shown.


Robert McLister is an interest rate analyst, mortgage strategist and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on Twitter at @RobMcLister.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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