Even then, GPT-4 is already dated. There is no current system of feeding generative language AIs with new and dynamic information on the internet, such as stock price or interest rate fluctuations. So, if you’re thinking about taking a plunge into day-trading, this would not work well for you.
Who is turning to AI for investing advice?
However, for those looking at slightly broader movements, ChatGPT seems to serve admirably well, and younger Americans, many of them digital natives, have wholeheartedly embraced AI for investing advice.
According to The Motley Fool survey, 50% of Millennials and 53% of Gen Zers used the AI LLM to unearth stock picks. Meanwhile, only 25% of Baby Boomers — a cohort that still remembers how fax machines and floppy discs work — felt comfortable doing so.
Unsurprisingly, the survey also found that income levels can be good predictors of who tends to use the service for stock research. As many as 77% of high-income Americans say they have used ChatGPT for investment recommendations, compared to 43% of middle-income Americans and just 23% of low-income Americans.
Gender differences also turned out to be significant: women — who have outperformed men as investors recently — tend to be more conservative in money matters, according to The Motley Fool analyst Asit Sharma, being less impulsive and calmer during market volatility. So, it’s no surprise that only 41% of women used ChatGPT versus 55% of men.
In total, just over two-thirds (69%) of American adults said that they would consider using ChatGPT for investment advice in the future. This move to AI could be nothing short of a seismic upheaval in the economics of money management, thanks to the democratization of a tool that even someone like a hedge fund trader is simultaneously salivating over.
One recent survey of the top 50 hedge fund managers by London-based Market Makers found nine out of 10 hedge fund traders are planning to use AI to manage their portfolios for the rest of 2023.
What ChatGPT can do
Already, the news doesn’t look too rosy for the money men and women — such as institutional fund managers — who control and attempt to grow the vast assets of American savers.
For instance, a hypothetical fund of 38 stocks, chosen by ChatGPT and based on criteria (such as low debt, high growth) culled from the portfolios it was competing against, rose by 4.93% in the first eight weeks since its creation on March 6, 2023, versus an average of -0.78% posted by the 10 most popular funds in the UK. In fact, the hypothetical fund outperformed the top 10 on 34 of the 39 days the market was open.
Another potential nail in the coffin is a recent ChatGPT-based study conducted at the University of Florida, which suggests even more dire implications for fund managers worldwide.
In a paper published this week in the Social Science Research Network, professors Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Yuehua Tang described how they decided to test ChatGPT in how well it could conduct ‘Sentimental Analysis’ — essentially looking at headlines in articles to determine stock-picking strategy.
Again, ChatGPT is not trained beyond September 2021, so the researchers fed the AI model 67,586 headlines pertaining to 4,138 unique companies between then and now.
This kind of analysis has already been taking place in the trading rooms of hedge funds for some time now, but it was the first time that ChatGPT was tested to perform tasks almost identical to expensive proprietary trading platforms and with customized sentiment analysis built-in.
The ChatGPT trading model, using sentiment analysis, posted returns in excess of 500% during this period against the -12% from buying and holding an S&P 500 ETF during the same period.
If that isn’t bad news for the finance industry — and lower-rung research analysts, in particular, almost every day marks the emergence of new APIs and plug-ins that can integrate with ChatGPT.
For example, PortfolioPilot is a freshly released and verified ChatGPT plugin that allows portfolios to be dumped into it for analysis and recommendations — all for free.
Considering AI’s existing ability to best the most blue-chip of money managers out there, the days of paying mutual funds management fees for middling returns, at least in the current structure, may be winding to a close.
What ChatGPT can’t do
All of this sounds like investing nirvana, but before you plunge into the fray, buying and selling with your favorite investing bot, there are a few things you should keep in mind.
ChatGPT’s training ended in September 2021, so anything you ask it will not reflect the time period since. And that gap brings us to the tendency for generative AI to make up things when it doesn’t have answers to your questions — referred to as AI hallucinations.
Generative AI detects patterns really well, which it does by scraping data from pre-existing texts. However, it does not do well in causal reasoning and you could be lured into believing what it says through its glib conversational abilities. It’s also bad at math. Therefore, information or insights have to be double-checked for accuracy.
It also doesn’t read facial expressions well, which many investigative journalists and stock pickers rely on when watching CEO or CFO interviews to gauge the actual health of a company.
Finally, according to investment professionals, while it has amazed and delighted with its polished responses, many of these suggestions are still way too generalized to be helpful. It doesn’t ask the kind of sophisticated questions that any portfolio manager would.
Of course, AI can get better at all of these tasks in time, and each version that has come out has proven to be astonishingly better than its predecessor. But we’re not quite at investing nirvana yet.
And, when it gets there, we may have to negotiate a slightly larger headache — how do you make money in a market where information and analysis for any conceivable asset anywhere in the world is not at a premium, but just an AI prompt away?
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
