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Charting the Global Economy: German Growth Outlook Deteriorates

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(Bloomberg) — Germany suffered its first recession since the start of pandemic, extinguishing hopes that Europe’s top economy could escape such a fate after the war in Ukraine sent energy prices soaring.

Those troubles risk spilling over to the rest of the continent, which for decades has relied on Germany to power growth. The country’s companies are also pessimistic, maintaining a prediction for no growth in 2023.

Inflation in the US and UK were both stronger than forecast in April, fueling bets in both regions that their central banks will keep raising interest rates.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

Europe

Germany has been Europe’s economic engine for decades, pulling the region through one crisis after another. But that resilience is breaking down, and it spells danger for the whole continent.

German companies aren’t seeing any evidence of a pickup taking hold in Europe’s biggest economy, according to a survey conducted by the DIHK business lobby. The group maintained a prediction for zero growth in 2023, an outlook that’s more pessimistic than the 0.2% expansion forecast by the European Commission.

Britain’s inflation rate remained much stronger than expected, with the fastest increase in services and core prices in more than three decades fueling a flurry of bets on more Bank of England interest rate rises.

US

Inflation and consumer spending accelerated last month, highlighting steady price pressures and demand that will keep Federal Reserve policy makers tilted toward raising interest rates further. Combined with other Friday reports showing a surge in business equipment orders and a pickup in merchandise imports, the data indicate demand continues to power ahead.

On Friday, June 2, millions of Americans are due a total of $25 billion worth of Social Security payments. And more than anything else, that may prove a decisive element in forcing an end to the partisan standoff over raising the federal debt limit.

Asia

In 2021, a remote coal town in northeastern China was forced to undergo an unprecedented financial restructuring. Its struggles since are an ominous sign for President Xi Jinping as other heavily indebted municipalities look set to follow suit.

Singapore is confident that a rebound in travel that’s boosting the services sector will help the island’s economy avoid a recession this year despite a darkening global outlook.

Emerging Markets

Brazil’s central bank may have pushed up interest rates earlier and higher than others, but almost all of them — from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of England — have hiked to levels that are uncomfortably high for politicians. Calls for an end to rate hikes are mounting in capitols from Nairobi to Bogotá to New Delhi, threatening to undermine the autonomy that’s so critical to central banks’ fight against inflation.

Mexico’s economy expanded at a slightly slower pace in the first quarter than previously estimated, while still benefiting from strong remittance flows and record exports to the US. The economy has now posted six straight quarters of growth.

World

Israel delivered an unprecedented 10th consecutive interest-rate increase, New Zealand signaled this hike would likely be its last of the cycle, while Iceland and South Africa also tightened. Hungary cut the EU’s highest interest rate, while Vietnam and Belarus also eased. Ghana, Korea and Turkey stood pat.

Argentina’s government is asking China for an expansion of its bilateral currency swap in yuan as it seeks to build up central bank reserves in a bid to contain another peso selloff with inflation already running above 100%, according to two people with direct knowledge. For China, it’s another opportunity — albeit risky lending more to a serial defaulter in Argentina — to expand the yuan’s global use in a bid to diminish dependence on the US dollar.

—With assistance from Andrew Atkinson, Maya Averbuch, Martha Beck, Maria Eloisa Capurro, Laura Litvan, Yujing Liu, Colum Murphy, Ignacio Olivera Doll, Jana Randow, Tom Rees, Felipe Saturnino, Zoe Schneeweiss, Craig Stirling, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Alexander Weber, William Wilkes and Xiao Zibang.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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