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Elon Musk says home prices will tumble ‘next’—Redfin’s CEO disagrees – Fortune

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There’s no doubt about it: Things aren’t looking so great for commercial real estate, especially for office space.

Look no further than a revised forecast issued earlier this month by a group of researchers from New York University and Columbia University, which predicts that office values in New York City alone will plummet a staggering 44% by 2029. That’s much steeper than the group’s prior prediction—issued a year ago—for NYC office values to fall 28% by 2029.

The stickiness of remote work, coupled with interest rates spiking just as many commercial real estate loans come due, is the underlying source of the commercial real estate bearishness. However, at least in the eyes of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, property declines will soon spread beyond commercial real estate.

On Monday, Musk insinuated that pain awaits the residential housing market when he tweeted that “Commercial real estate is melting down fast. Home values next.”

Musk didn’t say how much he thinks U.S. home prices will fall—nor did he explain why. He also got some pushback.

On Tuesday, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman shot back at Musk, tweeting, “But the loss in demand for commercial real estate is what’s driving demand for residential real estate. People who work from home need more space at home. Sales volume is down because inventory is down. Today, home prices increased for a second straight month.”

The idea that remote work has boosted home prices during the pandemic is supported by research published last year by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The San Francisco Fed paper argues that upwards of 50% of Pandemic Housing Boom gains through November 2021 can be attributed to an elevated demand for “space” created by the pandemic’s remote work shift.

“Our results suggest that rising house prices over the pandemic reflected a change in fundamentals rather than a speculative bubble. This implies that the evolution of remote work may be an important determinant of future housing costs and inflation,” wrote the team of San Francisco Fed researchers.

So who is right, Kelman or Musk? The industry is fairly divided.

While national home prices have fallen a bit—down 2.2% from June 2022 according to the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index—they aren’t crashing broadly. Some markets like San Francisco (down 12.9% from its 2022 peak), Phoenix (down 8.4%), and Las Vegas (down 9.0%) have fallen sharply. However, many places in the Midwest, like Chicago, and along the East Coast, like Miami, are still near all-time highs.

Economists at firms like Zillow and CoreLogic argue that national home prices have bottomed, while firms like Moody’s Analytics and Fannie Mae think that national home prices—which rose on a month-over-month basis in February and March according to Case-Shiller—will soon flip back into correction.

Want more housing data? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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